Fantasy Football: 4 Undervalued Wide Receivers by Win Totals

Among the big four positions in fantasy football, the tie between team strength and fantasy output is weakest at wide receiver.

If a team falls behind, they'll throw more. More passes means more fantasy potential for pass-catchers, but it also implies they're less likely to win the game.

Thus, relative to quarterback, running back, and tight end, we have to be a bit more selective when comparing a team's 2024 betting win total to the average draft position (ADP) of their receivers.

However, of the top 10 scorers last year in half-point-per-reception (PPR) points per game at receiver, seven played for playoff teams, and half were on teams that won 11-plus games. There's still a tie here, even if it's not as strong.

With that in mind, let's dig into some receivers who may be worth targeting in season-long drafts due to the strength of their respective teams. We'll be using Fantasy Pros' half-PPR ADP and FanDuel Sportsbook's 2024 win totals for the purposes of this discussion.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

You could make a strong case that Rashee Rice is undervalued. Even with a suspension potentially looming, he's likely to be around during the fantasy football playoffs, which is when the checks get handed out.

But Rice's absence could open the door for Xavier Worthy to establish a role immediately.

Worthy -- currently the 43rd wide receiver off the board -- joins Marquise Brown as the key cog in the passing offense to keep things afloat without Rice. But Brown dealt with foot injuries again last season, and even when healthy, he averaged just 1.25 yards per route run, according to PFF. Part of that is due to quarterback play, but there are plentiful question marks around Brown at this point.

Patrick Mahomes has already said that Worthy will need to "be ready to go," and he clearly fits a mentality shift within this offense to get back into killing teams with speed. Thus, Worthy at his current cost seems to justify the risk that comes with his selection.

Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

As of now, the Buffalo Bills have no pass-catchers going within the top 50 picks and no receivers in the top 100. It's easy to understand why this is the case, but with the Bills' win total at 10.5, we should want to take swipes.

The two best candidates for that seem to be Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir.

Let's start with Shakir, the lone holdover in the receiver corps. He finished second on the team behind Stefon Diggs last year in yards per route run, sitting at 1.75, according to PFF. Even while playing a limited role, Shakir managed to top 100 yards twice and had 90 in another. When he was on the field, he was productive, and you can reasonably expect an increased snap rate this year.

Coleman stands out for a different reason: he big.

Coleman is 6'4" tall. Shakir and Curtis Samuel -- the other projected starting receiver -- are 6'0" or shorter. Coleman provides a different element than those players, which could boost his odds of getting on the field right away. There is competition via Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, and Mack Hollins, but typically, journeymen are journeymen for a reason.

It's possible that Dalton Kincaid and James Cook suck up enough volume that neither Shakir nor Coleman provides good fantasy value. In that case, you can simply drop them and move on. But the upsides of getting exposure to Josh Allen's arm justify this low level of investment.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

Don't worry; I hate this, too.

But I think we need to give Rashod Bateman a look this year.

Last year was an abject disaster for Bateman. His snap rates were muted, and he averaged just 1.05 yards per route run, according to PFF.

If you're looking for data behind why we should back Bateman, I got nothin'.

The Baltimore Ravens seem to have a different view, though. They signed Bateman to a three-year extension in the offseason, locking him up through 2026. Bateman, himself, said he was surprised by the offer, but it signals to us that they want him in that room.

Bateman's going at pick 190 right now. For that cost, you're getting a former first-rounder tied to a two-time MVP on a team with a 10.5-win total. I'd have a hard time saying no to that, regardless of how the first few years have gone.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.