Fantasy Football: 3 Undervalued Tight Ends Based on Win Totals

Similar to quarterbacks, the tie between tight end fantasy scoring and winning teams should be obvious.

Tight ends get a huge portion of their point totals from touchdowns. Thus, the better a team is, the more likely it is their tight end -- in a vacuum -- is a fantasy darling.

We don't play fantasy in a vacuum, and other factors go into winning games than just flooding the end zone. But when four of the five highest-scoring tight ends on a point-per-game basis were in their conference's championship game last year, you can bet this stuff matters.

So, let's dig into some tight ends who may be undervalued in drafts right now based on their team's win total. Here, we'll be using Fantasy Pros' average draft position (ADP) data in half-point-per-reception (PPR) leagues and 2024 NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Undervalued Fantasy Tight Ends

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

By now, we know that George Kittle is most productive when either Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk is sidelined. The too-many-cooks problem is likely why he's going decently late.

But Kittle made gains even when those guys were active last year, and it makes him a worthy target.

In the games where both Aiyuk and Samuel were healthy last year (omitting the stretch before the bye where Samuel played through an injury), Kittle had a 19.8% target share across 10 games. He also had 23.5% of the team's deep targets (16-plus yards downfield) in that span, meaning there was juice to those targets.

Kittle leveraged that to finish fifth in half-PPR points per game among tight ends who played at least half the season. When you pair that with his ability to have spike weeks -- with or without Aiyuk and Samuel -- the appeal should be obvious, even if he is due for some negative touchdown regression.

Sure, Kittle can have duds. That's the nature of the beast with the 49ers' win total at 11.5, meaning blowouts are on the menu. But very few tight ends bring a good median expectation every single week, so Kittle likely should be going earlier than pick 73 overall.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert's issue is similar to Kittle's: he's got some dudes outside in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and now, the Philadelphia Eagles' ground game could be even more potent with Saquon Barkley.

Goedert, though, seems due for positive regression on what could be a very fun offense.

Goedert finished last year with just three touchdowns. His max in a year is five, and that came all the way back in 2019. When you combine that with how lethal the tush push is for the Eagles, it's fair to think his touchdown upside is limited.

But if you omit the games Goedert missed last year (and Week 18), he handled 20.0% of the targets -- not that far behind Smith (21.2%) for second on the team. It's hard to find that kind of volume at pick 112, Goedert's current draft slot.

Expectations are high once again with the Eagles' win total sitting at 10.5 with -134 on the over. It's easy to understand why the public would be a bit tepid on Goedert, but with his volume and the team's expected output, he seems like a quality target at TE12.

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals

This is more of a "shoot for the fences" kind of pick. You could very well drop Mike Gesicki after Week 1 without a second thought.

We just should crave exposure to this Cincinnati Bengals offense, and he provides it at TE28.

Gesicki's cap hit is lower than that of Drew Sample ($2.5 million to $4.9 million), but Sample is more of a blocker. He pass-blocked on 30.1% of his pass snaps last year, according to PFF. Gesicki's here to play more of the Tanner Hudson role, and Gesicki's cap hit is more than double Hudson's ($1.2 million).

Hudson's actually good evidence of how useful this role can be. He earned five-plus targets in 5 of the final 10 games despite low snap counts in an offense led by Jake Browning. If you give Gesicki that kind of volume with Joe Burrow back, he could flash a pulse.

Burrow's health concerns are in the rearview mirror as the Bengals' win total is 10.5 with -134 on the over. As a result, we should be taking stabs here.

That applies to Gesicki for now, but it's also a blanket statement for Hudson, Sample, or rookie Erick All should they generate even a lick of buzz in camp.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.