Fantasy Football: 3 Undervalued Quarterbacks Based on Win Totals

Last year, the highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks (based on FanDuel's scoring rules) were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love.

What do all five have in common?

They all played for playoff teams, averaging 11.2 wins across the group.

Obviously, there's a rushing component for several of those names, but the link between fantasy output and wins is obvious.

The team with more points wins. Typically, quarterbacks play a key role in amassing said points.

Thus, better teams -- generally -- will have higher-scoring fantasy quarterbacks. Easy peasy.

Even with that, there's still not a one-to-one relationship between a team's strength and a quarterback's average draft position (ADP) in fantasy. Most of this is due to rushing, which isn't accounted for in win totals. But sometimes, quarterbacks on good teams can slip through the cracks and provide solid value in fantasy.

Let's run through some players who stand out with this in mind for 2024, based on Fantasy Pros' half-PPR ADP and FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting win totals.

Undervalued Fantasy Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

We all know why Brock Purdy is coming off the board as QB11. There have been trade rumors around Brandon Aiyuk, and Purdy isn't some mad scrambler who will rack up points that way.

He's still likely a value, though.

Purdy finished 2023 as the QB6 in points per game among players who started at least half the season (excluding Week 18). Even without providing rushing output, he outscored players like C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes, all of whom are going ahead of him in drafts.

Those players all have ceilings that are pretty easy to envision, so it's fully defensible they're going in front of Purdy. But Purdy's ceiling wasn't too shabby, either, as he topped 25 FanDuel points in one-quarter of his games.

The 49ers' win total is 11.5 with the over at +116, the second-highest win total of all behind just the Kansas City Chiefs. They're going to move the ball, and Purdy's likely to be a key catalyst within that. If you miss out on one of the guys who brings that rushing juice, Purdy is a sick consolation.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

As you saw above, Prescott was the QB3 last year despite middling receiving options beyond CeeDee Lamb. Yet he's just the QB7 in drafts right now, coming off the board at pick 69 on average.

That may be a smidge too low.

Even with a disappointing offseason, the Cowboys still carry a meaty 10.5-win total entering the year. Sure, the over is at +165, meaning that number is deceptive, but they're also +1600 to win the Super Bowl and +155 to win the division. Expectations remain high.

And, frankly, that's justified. Despite heavy turnover along the offensive line, the Cowboys grade out well in Brandon Thorn's offensive line rankings at Establish The Run thanks to the bangers they have up front in Tyler Smith and Zack Martin.

At pass-catcher, the only loss was Michael Gallup, who had been losing snaps to Jalen Tolbert anyway. I'm not sure enough has changed here to justify the souring on Prescott in fantasy.

Specifically, the gap between Prescott (QB7 at pick 69) and Stroud (QB6 at pick 57) is too large. The win totals on both teams are similar, both run enough to have some appeal there, and they get to play their home games indoors. We may not need to shove Prescott higher in the quarterback rankings, but it doesn't seem like there should be a full tier between him and the player directly in front of him.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Jared Goff is similar to Purdy: you can understand why he's going where he is. Not only does he not run, but the Detroit Lions are more run-heavy than you'd like.

This is still a really steady presence to have going after pick 100.

Last year, the Lions threw on early downs just 52.0% of the time. That's below the league average of 53.1%. So, yes, it's fair to label them as being run-heavy.

Even with that, Goff had a couple of spike weeks, scoring 23.9 FanDuel points in Week 2, 27.4 in Week 5, and 31.1 in Week 15. There aren't a ton of quarterbacks going this late with that kind of single-game upside, increasing Goff's appeal as a late-round option.

The Lions' win total is 10.5 this year with -134 on the over. Of the eight teams with a win total of at least 10.5, Goff and Purdy are the only quarterbacks on those teams going outside of the top nine quarterbacks. Goff is QB13.

With increased competition in the NFC South via Love and Caleb Williams, there's always a chance we see the Lions get into more back-and-forth affairs, forcing them to keep their foot on the gas longer. If that happens, Goff's ceiling could pop up more often, making him viable once you're past the top group of studs.

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Which win totals stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's 2024 NFL betting win totals to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.