Fantasy Football: 4 Undervalued Running Backs by Win Totals

The past week, we've been digging into players who are undervalued for fantasy football based on their team's betting win totals for 2024.

At quarterback and tight end, the tie was tight because of how influential touchdowns are to the output of those two positions. Better teams score more touchdowns, so we should boost up players on teams the betting market thinks will perform well.

Even though we crave positive game scripts at running back, the discussion is a bit more nuanced. Volume is the key driver of output, and there are plenty of running backs on bad teams who get enough work to justify a lofty draft slot.

Still... being on a good team definitely doesn't hurt.

If we're looking for backs who are undervalued, win totals can provide us with key data. These players are more likely to be on teams grinding out leads late, giving them more of that oh-so-sweet volume. And these guys do benefit from the potential spike in scoring, as well.

With those caveats in mind, let's dig into some running backs who may be good values in fantasy based on expectations for their teams. For this, we'll be using Fantasy Pros' half-point-per-reception (PPR) average draft position (ADP) data and FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting win totals.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs enter 2024 with the highest win total at FanDuel Sportsbook, sitting at -118 to go over 11.5 wins. Although you can understand why Pacheco is going at the turn between the third and fourth rounds, it's easy to make the case that he's a value.

As of now, Jerick McKinnon is still a free agent. McKinnon has siphoned away goal-line work from Pacheco in the past, preventing him from taking the leap on a high-powered offense.

When McKinnon missed time last year, Pacheco's workload surged. He played at least 70% of the snaps in all four of the Chiefs' playoff games, including when McKinnon was active for the Super Bowl. When the games mattered most, they leaned on Pacheco.

We also saw Pacheco's passing-game work spike last year. He had at least 4 targets in 10 of 18 games (including the postseason), a mark he hit just once as a rookie. That could scale back now that the Chiefs have non-corpses on the perimeter, but he proved he can contribute, which is huge for his fantasy outlook.

Pacheco ranks 11th in numberFire's half-PPR projections at running back, right in line with his current ADP. Thus, we shouldn't be too aggressive in bumping him up, but Pacheco's ceiling in this offense with what he showed last year is higher than his draft slot implies.

Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

For these next two slots, it's easy to understand why the running backs are going later. We don't know which back to target, and there's a chance they cannibalize each other to the point that neither is enticing.

In general, though, I'm in favor of taking swipes at uncertain situations if the potential payoff is big enough, and that's the case for both of these.

Let's start with the Dallas Cowboys' backfield duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, currently going as the RB40 and RB45, respectively. Despite the vibe around the team, the Cowboys' win total is still 10.5 (though the over is +164). Expectations are down from previous years but still high.

With Tony Pollard gone to the Tennessee Titans, the depth chart behind Elliott and Dowdle is now Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman. Vaughn was a terror at Kansas State, but he played more than 16% of the snaps just once last year, even while Pollard wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire. He could gain an expanded role now, but there's tons of opportunity to be had for Dowdle and Elliott.

Elliott enters with the meatier contract between the two. He signed for $1.6 million guaranteed while Dowdle is down at just $200,000. Elliott also showed he wasn't totally dust last year, averaging 77.3 yards from scrimmage per game from Week 13 on with Rhamondre Stevenson getting banged up. That's not some gaudy number, but you wouldn't expect it to be on an offense as putrid as the New England Patriots' was.

If forced to choose, that's why I'd give Elliott the slight edge.

But Dowdle's worth consideration, too, especially if you miss out on Elliott. He played pretty significant snaps last year even with Pollard in the mix, specifically earning work in the passing game. The upside is capped a bit with Elliott more likely to earn goal-line work, but they likely brought Dowdle back for a reason.

Overall, this is a backfield worth targeting, and both players are going outside of the top 120 picks. It means that even if you guess wrong -- or the backfield winds up being too divided for anybody to emerge -- your opportunity cost is low enough to be worthwhile.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

The cost around the Cincinnati Bengals' backfield is higher with Zack Moss and Chase Brown sitting at RB26 and RB38, respectively. But the market's also higher here with -134 on the over for the Bengals' win total at 10.5, and these two players may bring a little extra juice.

Moss joined the team on a two-year deal with $3 million guaranteed, a really solid payday for a guy whose career was in limbo before 2023. But he stepped up well while Jonathan Taylor was limited, putting up yards from scrimmage totals of 195, 145, and 107 at various times.

Moss did seem to lose steam as the year went along, though. In Weeks 13 and 14, he had 57 and 56 yards from scrimmage, respectively, despite getting full featured-back workloads. When Moss played alongside Taylor in Week 18, Moss played a paltry 17.7% of the snaps.

The Bengals knew that when they signed Moss to his respectable deal. I do think, though, that it opens the door for Brown to be the better choice between the two.

Brown forced his way into increased snaps last year simply by playing well. Even with Joe Mixon still around, Brown averaged 7.0 carries and 2.0 targets per game across the final six weeks. Those targets came even though Brown had just four carries and two targets the entire season on third down. That's a negative as it signals the Bengals didn't trust him in obvious passing situations, but early-down targets also show us they actively wanted the ball in his hands.

Because of the contract Moss received, I understand why Moss is going higher in drafts. But personally, I think the gap between the two is too large, and I'd prefer to target Brown, currently coming off the board in the 10th round of 12-team drafts.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which win totals stand out to you for this year? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest 2024 NFL betting win totals to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.