Don't Sleep on Geno Smith in Fantasy Football

We're less than two months away from Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, and fantasy football draft season is rapidly approaching.

You can't win your fantasy football league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it. For savvy owners, this time of the year is when you get ahead of the rest of your league.

At FanDuel Research, we are breaking down all the top players in fantasy ahead of the 2023 season, with this piece focusing on Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith.

Geno Smith Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 4,130 passing yards, 26.9 passing TDs, 10.5 INTs, 301 rushing yards, 2.3 rushing TDs

numberFire Positional Projection: QB15

Geno Smith Fantasy Football Outlook

State of the Position

The times they are a-changin'.

For years, sharp fantasy owners swore by the idea of a late-round quarterback. The theory went that the difference between the first and last quarterbacks drafted wasn't nearly enough to validate using early-round draft capital on a quarterback.

For example, in 2015, Aaron Rodgers had an average draft position (ADP) of 13th overall. Sure, taking Rodgers in the second round would lock down your QB position. But if you took, say, Odell Beckham (ADP 17) in the second round and waited to select Cam Newton (ADP 84) later on, you'd ensure yourself two players in the top 10 at their position.

The strategy caught on. While there were always outliers, in general, you weren't seeing more than a handful of quarterbacks selected in the first four rounds (top 48 in 12-team leagues), according to average draft position (ADP) data from FantasyPros.

This year, the trends have shifted.

The ADP for the first 12 signal-callers drafted is more than 10 spots lower than it was last year. Seven QBs are currently going inside the top 48 picks -- nearly double that of last season.

Part of that is just how this year's quarterbacks line up. There seems to be a consensus top tier of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts, all of whom are going in the first two rounds. After that, a second tier of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Justin Herbert are going between picks 31 and 43.

All seven are worthy additions to any fantasy team. To get them, however, you'll have to spend a pretty penny. That makes a late-round quarterback, if you get the right one, all the more valuable.

Late-Round QB Options

A third tier (Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott) round out the top-10 QBs, and all of them are going within the first seven rounds. After that, things get murky.

Eight QBs are being drafted, on average, between picks 85 and 108.

These are 2023's late-round quarterbacks. All will have some weekly QB1 finishes throughout the season and a few could even finish the year ranked as a top-12 quarterback.

Although the late-round QB strategy appears to be less popular this season, it's still viable -- especially with Geno Smith going outside the top 100.

2022 Rewind

Smith's story is incredible. So incredible, in fact, that it may be overshadowing how good he was on the field.

Smith started the first two years of his career with the New York Jets, during which he held an ugly 25-to-34 TD-to-INT ratio and completed just 57.5% of his passes. He appeared in just 11 games over the next six seasons and wasn't even on a roster in 2019.

Then, an injury to Russell Wilson allowed Smith a four-game audition in 2021. He impressed over that span, completing 68.4% of his passes and tossing 5 touchdowns compared to just a single interception.

After the Seahawks traded Wilson to the Denver Broncos prior to 2022, Smith beat out Drew Lock for the starting job. He proceeded to lead the league in completion percentage, throw 30 touchdowns, and finish as PFF's eight-ranked passer. He finished as the QB5 in fantasy, racking up 314.9 points (18.5 points per game).

For his efforts, Smith was awarded the 2022 AP Comeback Player of the Year, and the Seahawks gave him a three-year deal worth up to $105 million. Consequently, Geno enters 2023 as an unquestioned starting quarterback for the first time since 2014.

Elite Weapons

Smith returns at the helm for a Seattle team with a strong outlook in 2023. The Seahawks' offense will look mostly the same with a pair of notable additions in rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) and Zach Charbonnet.

Those two feel like icing on the cake for Smith given last season's already-strong skill-position group. The addition of JSN gives Seattle arguably the NFL's best receiver trio and boosts them to fifth in PFF's 2023 receiving corps rankings.

It will be interesting to see how Seattle manages those three. Last year's slot receiver, Marquise Goodwin, flashed at times but wasn't heavily featured. In fact, the Seahawks used three-receiver sets at a bottom-10 rate in the league last season.

Considering the draft capital Seattle used on JSN, it would be surprising to see them continue to limit their three-WR sets. Relative to the rest of Pete Carroll's career, last year was an outlier -- marking just the second time in the last six seasons the Seahawks ranked outside the top-10 in first-down, 11-personnel usage rate.

Despite using multiple tight ends so much, the Seahawks were one of the pass-happiest teams in the league on early downs. Last year, they ranked fifth with a 59.2% pass rate in neutral situations --signaling a trust in Geno's ability to be more than a game manager.

Assuming Seattle is willing to let Locket, Metcalf, and Smith-Njigba play at the same time, Smith will have three upper-echelon receivers to work with. With those three at his disposal, Geno could put up big numbers.

Geno Smith Is Actually Good

Last year wasn't a fluke. Geno Smith is a good quarterback.

Geno didn't just outperform relative to the media's expectations; he performed well by the advanced stats, too. He led the league by a wide margin in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and had the eighth-most fantasy points over expectation (FPOE).

Outperforming expected stats can point to the possibility of regression, but it also shows who the good players are, as good players are going to outperform expected stats by default. Geno is one of those good players, and it starts with his accuracy.

Per Pro Football Reference, Smith had the fourth-highest on-target percentage in the league last season at 75.7% while simultaneously having the lowest percentage of bad throws at just 11.8%. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that throwing accurate passes to good receivers is going to lead to positive outcomes.

Geno was also stellar in the red zone -- tossing 18 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Inside the 20, he ranked ninth in numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.

Where Geno really excelled last year was down the field. Despite an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 8.0, he was PFF's highest-graded passer on passes 20-plus yards down the field. He led the league with 15 deep passing touchdowns and ranked second in adjusted completion percentage among signal-callers with at least 30 deep attempts.

In addition to his work through the air, Geno was a formidable threat with his legs. Although he scored just once on the ground, he averaged 21.5 rushing yards per game. He isn't Justin Fields, but that extra two fantasy points per game and occasional rushing touchdown only further boosts his stock.

Final Verdict

Geno Smith solidified himself as a capable starting quarterback last season. He won't catch anyone by surprise in 2023, but he'll get a full offseason as the starter working with one of the best receiving corps in the league.

While it would be surprising to see Geno outperform his fantasy production from last year, he doesn't need to. He's currently going as the QB15 despite last season's QB5 finish.

That value is his biggest draw. If you're going to wait on a quarterback in a draft season when not many people are, looking Geno's way once pick 100 rolls around is more than a viable strategy.

You may miss out on the absolute top-tier fantasy passers, but you'll have an extra pick to play with early on knowing the Geno Smith safety blanket is waiting for you in the ninth round.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.