College Football Win Total Betting: Will Penn State Crack the Double-Digit Win Mark?

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After experiencing a couple of down seasons with a combined record of 11-11 over 2020 and 2021 seasons, Penn State has bounced back with 11-2 and 10-3 records over the last two years. This included two New Year's Six bowl game appearances. Despite returning several key starters and landing promising transfers, the Nittany Lions are being overlooked.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's college football conference odds, Penn State has the third-shortest line to win the Big Ten (+500). The Lions have a new conference to navigate with the 2024 additions of Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington.

How many games will Penn State win in the regular season in 2024? Let's take a look.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Penn State Football Win Total Odds

Penn State Football Over/Under 9.5 Wins

• Over: -172
• Under: +140

Penn State 2024 Football Schedule

Why Penn State Could Win Over 9.5 Games (-172)

The Nittany Lions have reached double-digit wins in back-to-back seasons. Reaching the over would require replicating recent success. The roster looks fully capable of reaching the 10-win mark yet again.

Penn State has plenty of returning experience on offense. This includes Drew Allar entering his second season as starting quarterback. The offense will likely lean on the run game as Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are gearing up to be one of the best running back tandems in America.

Allar also has a promising returning starting tight end in Tyler Warren, and Julian Fleming was added via the transfer portal. Fleming was the 11th-best receiver in the portal and a starting wideout for Ohio State in the 2023 season.

Keep in mind that this offense totaled the 15th-most points per game (PPG) (89th percentile) and was among the 90th percentile in rushing yards per carry and per game in 2023. The offense should remain very productive with Allar, Singleton, and Allen leading the charge.

The defense also has some major players returning, including safety Jaylen Reed and edge rusher Abdul Carter. Reed was Honorable Mention All-Big Ten Defense in 2023 while Carter made Second-Team All-Big Ten as a linebacker. Carter could be one of college football's most feared defenders in 2024 as he is transitioning to an edge rushing spot. His versatility is reminiscent of the former Nittany Lion Micah Parsons.

The schedule only further points to the over. Penn State has seven home games compared to five on the road. As most of us know, the Lions have one of the biggest home advantages in CFB thanks to Beaver Stadium. They even get to play at home for perhaps their toughest game of the season against Ohio State, who is +400 to win it all when looking at FanDuel's college football national championship odds.

Penn State didn't get too tough of a pull with the Big Ten's new additions, as well. Playing at USC could be a tough test, but the Trojans no longer have Caleb Williams and have a win total of only 7.5, per FanDuel's college football win total odds. The Nittany Lions completely dodged Oregon on the schedule; Big Ten conference odds have the Ducks with the second-shortest odds to win the conference (+210).

The returning experience and favorable schedule are present for Penn State to reach 10 wins for the third straight season.

Why Penn State Could Win Under 9.5 Games (+140)

The under has much more intriguing odds at +140 compared to the over at -172. However, the evidence is simply not as strong compared to the over.

Picking at some of the Nittany Lions' departures following the 2023 season could be the strongest piece for the under. We can't ignore that PSU lost NFL talent. The lines of scrimmage experienced the most losses as Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Chop Robinson, Caedan Wallace, and Adisa Isaac all moved on to the big leagues.

Fashanu was the biggest loss, for he was First-Team All-American and First-Team All-Big Ten in 2023. Robinson was an All-American and first-round draft pick, similar to Fashanu. Isaac was also named to First-Team All-Big Ten and was the conference's EDGE Defender of the Year.

These are major losses in the trenches. Keep in mind that the Big Ten tends to lean on the run game, especially as the weather turns cold. If Penn State cannot perform on the lines of scrimmage, there will likely be trouble ahead.

Additionally, the secondary is replacing three starters in Kalen King, Johnny Dixon, and Daequan Hardy. Replacing virtually the entire cornerback unit is no easy task. This group could heavily depend on transfer corner A.J. Harris, who was the second-best CB available in the portal and appeared in seven games during his freshman season with Georgia.

Allar -- the former five-star prospect -- has yet to unleash his potential. He finished fourth in the Big Ten in passing yards in 2023. Ahead of the 2024 season, he is a long shot to win the Heisman at +3500 when looking at FanDuel's college football Heisman odds. The Lions could need more from their signal-caller to reach 10 wins, especially considering the losses on defense.

Still, over 9.5 wins looks like the best bet for Penn State. The Nittany Lions landed promising pieces in the transfer portal, including Fleming and Harris. They also returned key starters who figure to be some of the top players in the Big Ten.

Over the last two seasons, each of Penn State's regular-season losses came against Michigan and Ohio State squads ranked in the top five. The Buckeyes could be the only top-five opponent on the schedule in 2024. If it's business as usual, the Nittany Lions could even reach 11 wins assuming OSU remains a thorn in PSU's side.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.