College Football Predictions Today: 3 Picks and Best Bets for Thursday

Thursday College Football Picks in Summary

• Liberty -13.5 (-110)
• South Florida +7.5 (-122)
• South Alabama-Arkansas State Over 58.5 (-104)

Thursday's college football slate isn't huge, but the four-game card gives us several interesting betting opportunities.

The action begins at 7:00 p.m. ET with Sam Houston visiting Liberty and Missouri State traveling to Western Kentucky before South Florida-UTSA and South Alabama-Arkansas State kick off 30 minutes later.

Let's dive into three college football best bets for Thursday's slate.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday College Football Picks and Predictions

Liberty -13.5 (-110)

Sam Houston at Liberty, 7 p.m. ET

The Liberty Flames have won four straight games since losing their opener at James Madison, and three of those four victories have come by at least 16 points. The Flames enter Thursday averaging 30.4 points and 416.8 total yards per game while allowing only 17.8 points and 301.4 yards per contest.

The matchup on the ground is particularly appealing for Liberty. The Flames are generating 208.2 rushing yards per game while the Sam Houston State Bearkats have surrendered 190.2 rushing yards per contest and 5.0 yards per carry.

That could set up another big performance for Liberty running back Kam Davis, who just ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries against Delaware. The Flames won that game 30-14 after beating Coastal Carolina 34-17 the previous week.

Sam Houston possesses an explosive passing offense, averaging 308.0 passing yards per game, but Liberty has been stingy against the pass. The Flames are surrendering only 173.4 passing yards per game, have intercepted five passes, and are allowing opponents to complete just 49.0% of their attempts.

With the Flames owning significant advantages on the ground and defensively, I like them to win comfortably enough to cover.

South Florida +7.5 (-122)

South Florida at UTSA, 7:30 p.m. ET

The UTSA Roadrunners enter the matchup 4-1 and has won four of their last five, but the Roadrunners haven't consistently played like a team that should be laying nearly a touchdown against this South Florida Bulls defense. UTSA escaped Rice with a 16-14 victory last week despite entering as an 11.5-point favorite.

South Florida's defense has been excellent. The Bulls are allowing just 14.6 points and 312.4 total yards per game, including only 133.8 rushing yards per contest. Most impressively, opponents have scored just two rushing touchdowns through five games.

That unit gives USF a good chance to keep this matchup tight even if its offense doesn't light up the scoreboard.

The Bulls are also 4-1 themselves, yet USF is getting 7.5 points. The market's implied expectation and numberFire's projection don't totally align, either. numberFire’s model gives UTSA only a 55.8% win probability, which suggests a more competitive matchup than this spread might imply.

That’s enough for me to back the Bulls.

South Alabama-Arkansas State Over 58.5 (-104)

South Alabama at Arkansas State, 7:30 p.m. ET

The South Alabama Jaguars have been one of the more explosive offensive teams on today’s slate, averaging 35.4 points and 451.0 total yards per game. The Jaguars are balanced, too, producing 205.2 rushing yards and 245.8 passing yards per contest while averaging 6.1 yards per offensive play.

The problem has been their defense.

South Alabama is giving up 31.6 points and 410.2 yards per game, with opponents averaging an eye-popping 7.2 yards per play. Four of the Jaguars' five games have gone over the betting total this season.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves should have opportunities to contribute its share of the scoring. The Red Wolves average 24.0 points per game and have converted 45.5% of their third downs this season.

There are also reasons to expect South Alabama to move the ball consistently versus the Red Wolves’ D. Arkansas State has surrendered 399.6 total yards per game, including 196.2 rushing yards per contest and 5.1 yards per rushing attempt.

South Alabama's five games have averaged 67.0 combined points based on its 35.4 points scored and 31.6 allowed per game.

With the Jaguars possessing enough explosiveness to push into the 30s and both defenses showing vulnerabilities, the over is the side of the total I want to be on.

College Football Betting FAQ

What is a point spread in college football betting?

The point spread is designed to account for the expected difference between two teams. The favorite must win by more than the listed spread for a bet on that team to cover while the underdog can cover by winning outright or losing by fewer points than the spread.

What is a college football moneyline bet?

A moneyline wager is simply a bet on which team will win the game. Favorites typically have shorter odds and smaller potential payouts while underdogs generally offer larger potential returns.

What does over/under mean in college football?

An over/under, also known as the game total, is a wager on the combined number of points scored by both teams. Bettors can choose whether the final combined score will finish over or under the set total.

What are college football player props?

College football player props are wagers based on an individual player's performance rather than the final outcome of the game. Depending on availability, common markets can include passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, and other statistical categories.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.