College Football Best Bets for Week 5

The college football landscape has been reset for the 2024 season. The College Football Playoff (CFP) will have 12 teams for the first time, which features the five conference champions paired with the next seven highest-ranked teams. Conferences underwent major changes, as well. The Pac-12 is virtually no more while the SEC added two major brands and the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC all acquired several squads.

As if a shakeup in conference play wasn't intriguing enough, the stakes will also be heightened on a week-to-week basis with far more teams in contention for the CFP. Higher stakes could also generate more competitive games throughout the season, potentially impacting how we bet the sport.

Conference play is fully underway across college football as Week 5 has three top-25 conference matchups scheduled, headlined by two must-see clashes under the lights. Saturday is headlined by one of the most anticipated regular-season games of 2024 between the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Betting Picks

No. 22 BYU Cougars at Baylor Bears

BYU Moneyline (+130)

As underdogs, we just saw the Brigham Young Cougars beat the brakes off of the Kansas State Wildcats in Week 4, winning 38-9. Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears couldn't stop a nose bleed in their 38-31 loss against the Colorado Buffaloes. With BYU holding a 4-0 record while Baylor is 1-2 over their last three, the pick for this Big 12 matchup feels simple.

The odds only make this pick even more enticing with the Cougars as 3.5-point underdogs while carrying +130 odds to win outright. numberFire's game projections are giving Brigham Young a 59.3% chance to win compared to its +130 line holding a 43.5% implied probability. Before going all in on our pick, let's jump into the numbers.

The Cougs' calling card has been defense, giving up only 12.7 points per game (PPG) and 281.7 yards per contest (both in the 85th percentile). Their biggest strength has been forcing turnovers to the tune of 2.3 per game (93rd percentile), which was on full show in Week 4's victory with three takeaways. Baylor has turned the ball over at least two times in two of four contests. The Bears lost three fumbles in Week 3, which was against the Air Force Falcons -- who is 115th in Pro Football Focus' overall rankings. The turnover battle is the first major advantage for BYU heading into this matchup.

Baylor has leaned heavily on the run with 39.7 rushing attempts per game (top 24%) while attempting 22.0 passes per contest (bottom 10%). However, this rushing attack has mediocre efficiency, racking up 4.2 yards per attempt (bottom 48%). Brigham Young just took out a team with a much better rushing attack in Kansas State, who is in the top 26% in attempts per game and top 12% in yards per carry.

The turnover battle is a glaring advantage for the Cougars, which is holding most of the weight for this pick. There's only more comfort in the moneyline when BYU just demolished a team with a heavy running attack -- similar to Baylor.

Kentucky Wildcats at No.6 Ole Miss Rebels

Kentucky Under 17.5 Points (-120)

While the Kentucky Wildcats have easily covered the spread over their last two games, including a narrow 13-12 loss against Georgia, I still have a hard time buying into this offense. Yes, the unit managed to score 41 points while logging 488 yards in Week 4. However, this came against Ohio, who is 96th in PFF's defense rankings.

The Mississippi Rebels are a much tougher challenge, carrying PFF's top-graded defense. Coach Lane Kiffin's work in the transfer portal has paid off big time as defensive linemen Walter Nolen (85.6 PFF grade) and Princely Umanmielen (88.1 PFF grade) are among the top-35 prospects in NFL Mock Draft Database's 2025 Consensus Big Board while posting gaudy PFF grades thus far.

Kentucky's offensive line struggles have continued into the 2024 season, sitting in the bottom 9% in pass block grade. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has the top team pass rush grade in the nation. The Wildcats are on track to feature a rather one dimensional offense yet again. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff has a mediocre 63.6 pass grade through four games, which is greatly elevated by last week's 83.3 mark. The last time we saw Vandagriff face a defensive front of the Rebels' caliber, he posted pass grades of 28.8 and 57.7 against the South Carolina Gamecocks and Georgia.

This matchup isn't yielding much confidence for the Cats' passing attack, and they already heavily lean on the run with 39.0 attempts per contest (top 26%). UK's run game has posted decent efficiency (bottom 51% at 4.3 yards per carry), but Ole Miss is a different beast. The Rebels have been like the troll under the bridge, allowing no one to pass with 1.2 yards allowed per carry (lowest mark). This is even more impressive with opponents racking up 37.3 attempts per contest against Mississippi (the most).

Vandagriff has been shaky early in the season, and the Rebels run defense could completely shut off the Wildcats' top offensive strength. We have some eye-popping numbers from models, such as College Football Nerds projecting a deflating 5.8 total for UK on Saturday. Ole Miss' defense has been one of college football's best; give me under 17.5 points for Kentucky.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama Moneyline (+105)

Year in and year out, you can count on Georgia having an elite defense. It's pretty darn good once again, giving up only 7.5 PPG (top 3%) and 236.0 yards per contest (top 7%). However, Alabama is certainly the toughest test yet for the Bulldogs.

The Crimson Tide's ability to hit the deep ball could cause some issues for Georgia. For the most part, the Dawgs' coverage has been like glue, sitting in the top 6% with 4.5 yards allowed per pass. Bama is in the top 7% of yards per passing attempt (10.3) while quarterback Jalen Milroe has a 90.4 PFF pass grade on 20+ yard throws. Milroe has found a best friend in true freshman wideout Ryan Williams, who is boasting 28.5 yards per catch while holding a 93.5 receiving grade on 20+ yard targets.

Since finishing fifth in pass rush grade in 2021, Georgia's pass rush hasn't been as strong. The unit was 43rd in category a season ago and is currently 30th. This is where the Tide's offensive line comes into play as the unit has three starters among the top-100 prospects on the 2025 Consensus Big Board. Adding to the concern, the Bulldogs' star edge rusher Mykel Williams is in danger of missing his third straight game due to an ankle injury.

There's a good shot that Milroe will have some time to take deep shots on Saturday night. While Bama attempts 40.7 rushing attempts per contest (top 21%), the deep ball is a big enough threat to keep Georgia honest. In the Dawgs' most recent contest, they gave up 170 rushing yards against Kentucky. This is a team with less talented ball carriers, a weaker offensive line, and a struggling quarterback. The Tide's rushing attack, which is posting 236.3 yards per game (top 8%), is a huge threat.

Georgia's offense has plenty of concerns coming into this game. It totals only 23.5 PPG (bottom 38%) while touting mediocre efficiency marks of 4.8 yards per rush (top 65%) and 7.7 yards per passing attempt (top 63%). Averaging 30.1 seconds per play (top 8% for the slowest tempos) isn't helping the Bulldogs' case for putting up more points.

Quarterback Carson Beck is still one of CFB's best as the fourth-best prospect on the 2025 Consensus Big Board. The Dawgs' receiving targets have lacked thus far, clearly missing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. The Tide could have the answer, carrying the nation's 12th-best coverage grade while allowing only 3.2 yards per passing attempt (the fewest). Stopping the run could be the deciding factor for Alabama, and Georgia's starting guard Tate Ratledge being absent due to an ankle injury helps the Crimson Tide's case. The Dawgs mustered up only 3.4 yards per carry in their last game.

There are still plenty of unknowns about each team entering Week 5, but that's the beauty of college football. Ultimately, the home team feels like the best bet in this must-see top-five matchup. Georgia did not look like itself in Week 3 while Bama answered concerns in Week 3 by trouncing the Wisconsin Badgers 42-10 on the road. Winning the run game while hitting some deep shots could be the Tide's route to victory.

numberFire, Massey Ratings, and College Football Nerds all have Alabama winning outright, suggesting excellent value in the moneyline.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.