Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4

It's been an odd first three weeks of fantasy football, to say the least.

How odd? Well...

Patrick Mahomes has been outscored by Sam Darnold and Derek Carr. He has a worse completion percentage than Justin Fields.

Jauan Jennings is the WR2. He'd be the WR10 if you only counted his Week 3.

Mark Andrews has scored fewer fantasy points than both Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. Those two have combined for 0.7 points since Week 1.

Kicker Brandon Aubrey would be a top-12 option at every position besides quarterback. He'd be only the QB13 (ahead of Mahomes, mind you).

Oh, and consensus 1.01 Christian McCaffrey has yet to play a game. He's cemented on an injury report even a CVS receipt would find excessively long.

Weird times, indeed.

Nevertheless, we persist. It's far too early to give up now, regardless of your record. This is a new week -- one I'm here to help you figure out.

Every week I'll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to our NFL projections, which come via numberFire.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 4

Quarterback

Tier 1: Locks

1. Josh Allen (BUF)

2. Kyler Murray (ARI)

3. Lamar Jackson (BAL)

4. Jayden Daniels (WAS)

5. Jalen Hurts (PHI)

6. Joe Burrow (CIN)

7. Dak Prescott (DAL)

8. C.J. Stroud (HOU)

Tier 2: Starters

9. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

SPIN: Over his last 13 games dating back to last season, Patrick Mahomes has averaged just 15.5 fantasy points per game and cracked 20 points only one time. That’s not QB1 production — not even close. But this is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about. I wouldn’t be so quick to write him off in fantasy, even with a Chargers defense that's ninth in schedule-adjusted pass defense coming to town. Temper expectations given his recent production, but we should still give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt with KC sixth in pass rate over expectation.

10. Justin Fields (PIT)

11. Anthony Richardson (IND)

SPIN: I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a bit concerned with Anthony Richardson after the last two games, but we shouldn’t forget that he’s still just seven starts into his NFL career. The passing has been ugly, and that’s not likely to improve much against a Pittsburgh defense that’s sixth in scheduled-adjusted pass defense. But there’s far too much upside in his legs to consider benching him just yet. Even in a tough matchup, AR has multiple touchdown upside every week. That's worth starting.

12. Geno Smith (SEA)

13. Caleb Williams (CHI)

SPIN: Now, there’s the Caleb Williams we were looking for. Williams is coming off a monster passing game, racking up 352 yards via 52 attempts. Chicago likely won’t run 85 plays every week, but their run game has been so bad that their 10th-ranked pass rate over expectation feels somewhat sustainable. This week's matchup is as juicy as last week's. The Rams have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and they're 31st in scheduled-adjusted pass defense. He's an intriguing start, especially if Keenan Allen is able to return.

14. Baker Mayfield (TB)

15. Andy Dalton (CAR)

SPIN: Andy Dalton injected life into the Carolina offense last week, throwing for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns en route to 24.6 fantasy points. That's right in line with the 361 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 23.5 fantasy points he went for in a spot start last season. Now, Dalton isn't going to throw for 300 every week, but there's still plenty to like considering his Panthers posted a +5.2% pass rate over expectation after being below -8% the two weeks prior. This week, he draws a Bengals secondary that just gave up 254 yards and a 91% completion percentage to rookie Jayden Daniels. If you're desperate, there are a lot worse fantasy quarterbacks than Andy Dalton in Week 4.

Tier 3: On the Fence

16. Brock Purdy (SF)

17. Jared Goff (DET)

SPIN: The Jared Goff renaissance we were promised coming into the season hasn't manifested quite yet. He's the QB22 through three games and has generated a lackluster 0.01 Net Expected Points (NEP; numberFire's EPA metric) per play. It hasn't helped that Detroit is 25th in pass rate over expectation, but Goff just hasn't taken advantage of their plus matchups thus far. While there's still a lot to like with the Lions rocking a 26-point implied total back at home, it's just hard to trust him after these last three weeks.

18. Sam Darnold (CAR)

19. Daniel Jones (NYG)

SPIN: After a pitiful Week 1, Daniel Jones has quietly been pretty good the last two games, finishing as the QB6 and QB11. He's ninth in Passing NEP per play over that stretch, during which Jones has peppered rookie wideout Malik Nabers with a 50.8% target share. With Dallas sporting numberFire's 20th-ranked pass defense but coming in as 5.5-point favorites on Thursday night, we could again see a productive fantasy outing from Danny Dimes. He's a viable streamer, just bear in mind there's a wide range of outcomes... this is Daniel Jones, after all.

20. Derek Carr (NO)

Tier 4: Sit

21. Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

SPIN: Aaron Rodgers looked like vintage Aaron Rodgers last week, but I wouldn't be so quick to anoint him a weekly fantasy starter just yet. Although he took full advantage of a reeling Patriots secondary, this week has a tougher-than-you'd-think date with Denver's No. 4 schedule-adjusted pass defense. There's a decent enough floor here, but our fantasy football projections peg him for only 16.1 fantasy points, 19th at the position. New York's status as a 7.5-point favorite, coupled with the game's 38.5-point over/under suggest there's more upside elsewhere.

22. Matthew Stafford (LAR)

23. Jordan Love (GB)

SPIN: There's a chance we see Jordan Love return this week -- though he's currently day-to-day. Still, while fantasy managers are likely eager to get their signal caller back in the starting lineup, I'd have a hard time starting him in his first game back against a Minnesota defense that's eighth in scheduled-adjusted pass defense and has permitted the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. With several viable streamers this week, keep Love planted on your bench for at least one more week.

24. Trevor Lawrence (JAC)

Running Back

Tier 1: Locks

1. Saquon Barkley (PHI)

2. Breece Hall (NYJ)

3. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

4. Bijan Robinson (ATL)

5. Alvin Kamara (NO)

6. Jonathan Taylor (IND)

7. Kyren Williams (LA)

8. De'Von Achane (MIA)

9. Jordan Mason (SF)

10. Aaron Jones (MIN)

11. James Conner (ARI)

12. David Montgomery (DET)

13. Joe Mixon (HOU)

14. Derrick Henry (BAL)

15. Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

Tier 2: Starters

16. James Cook (BUF)

SPIN: James Cook followed up his three-touchdown performance in Week 2 with another score and 16.7 fantasy points last week despite playing just 50% of snaps in Buffalo's blowout win over Jacksonville. He's established a rock-solid floor on a Bills team that suddenly has the second-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+750), and there's certainly a ceiling this week in what should be a tighter contest against Baltimore.

17. Josh Jacobs (GB)

18. Devin Singletary (NYG)

SPIN: Devin Singletary is quietly the RB18 three weeks into 2024, and he's coming off an RB10, 16.9-fantasy point outing in Week 3. His snap rate did dip under 70% for the first time last week, but he also handled a season-high 24 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets). With the third-highest target share (10.3%) on the team and having handled 2.3 red zone rush attempts per game, there's suddenly a pretty solid floor for Singletary. He has a sizable ceiling this week, as well, considering the Cowboys are dead-last in scheduled-adjusted run defense.

19. Zack Moss (CIN)

20. Zach Charbonnet (SEA)

SPIN: Zach Charbonnet has filled in admirably for Kenneth Walker, notching 15.4 and 24.2 fantasy points while playing 90.5% of snaps the last two weeks. He's a borderline must-start given the usage if Walker sits, but things get murky if Walker is able to suit up. Charbonnet saw only 14 adjusted opportunities and played 33.3% of snaps with Walker active in Week 1, and this week's opponent (Detroit) is fourth in scheduled-adjusted run defense. This is a backfield to monitor leading up to Monday Night Football. Keep him in your flex spot.

21. J.K Dobbins (LAC)

22. Jerome Ford (CLE)

SPIN: After splitting snaps and being out touched by D'Onta Foreman in Week 2, Jerome Ford bounced back with an 82.5% snap rate and 18 adjusted opportunities last week. Granted, that resulted in only 8.5 fantasy points, but the utilization is highly encouraging heading into this week's date with the Raiders. Vegas is a pedestrian 23rd in scheduled-adjusted run defense, and they just let up 5.4 yards per carry to Chuba Hubbard. Assuming last week's usage holds, Ford belongs in starting lineups.

23. Travis Etienne (JAC)

24. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)

SPIN: We knew Rhamondre Stevenson's Week 3 matchup was tough. But I don't think anyone expected him to go for just 0.3 fantasy points. That was less than ideal following the 36.1 fantasy points he combined for in the first two games, and it certainly raises some red flags ahead of another tough matchup with the 49ers. Still, San Fran is fresh off a loss to the lowly Rams, one in which Kyren Williams torched them for 116 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. That's probably too rich for Stevenson, but his stellar workload is still enough to warrant a spot in your starting lineup.

Tier 3: On the Fence

25. Chuba Hubbard (CAR)

26. Carson Steele (KC)

SPIN: Carson Steele only netted 7.9 fantasy points in his first action sans Isiah Pacheco, but his utilization suggests he's the Chiefs running back to start moving forward. Steele paced the Kansas City backfield with a 63.9% snap rate and 21 adjusted opportunities, culminating in 74 scrimmage yards. Perhaps most encouraging was his 66.7% red zone snap share and 6 red zone rush attempts. That didn't result in a big fantasy outing, but he underperformed by 7.9 fantasy points relative to PFF's expected fantasy points model. Better days are ahead, and he could see even more volume this week with Kansas City favored by 8.5 points against the Chargers.

27. Najee Harris (PIT)

28. Rachaad White (TB)

SPIN: Rachaad White disappointed again, turning a 73.2% snap rate and 18 adjusted opportunities into just 6.0 fantasy points. He's been one of the worst backs in the league in terms of rushing success rate, and his 2.1 yards per attempt is the second-lowest mark among qualified rushers. While there's still enough volume to warrant starting him in a pinch, Todd Bowles has already said backup Bucky Irving has earned more reps. There should be a decent floor here, but I wouldn't hesitate to sit him in favor of higher upside options.

29. Bucky Irving (TB)

30. Tony Pollard (TEN)

31. Roschon Johnson (CHI)

SPIN: Roschon Johnson is far from a safe option this week, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he wound up being a top-24 back. Johnson made his season debut last week, handling 38.1% of snaps while turning 18 adjusted opportunities into 62 scrimmage yards. Incumbent starter D'Andre Swift managed only 42 yards off 21 adjusted opportunities, and he played a season-low 52.4% of snaps. There's a chance we're seeing a changing of the guard in this Chicago backfield, and this week's matchup presents a strong opportunity for whoever emerges to produce. The Rams have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs, and they're 29th in scheduled-adjusted run defense.

32. Jaylen Warren (PIT)

33. Rico Dowdle (DAL)

Tier 4: Sit

34. Zamir White (LV)

35. Javonte Williams (DEN)

SPIN: It might be over for Javonte Williams. He played a season-low 51.6% of snaps last week and saw just 13 adjusted opportunities. He earned just 5 of Denver's 19 running back rush attempts, with Jaleel McLaughlin (5) and Tyler Badie (9) both garnering a substantial workload. Given his downtick in volume, it's hard to justify Williams being anywhere near your starting lineup when the Broncos have the week's second-lowest implied total (15.5).

36. D'Andre Swift (CHI)

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Locks

1. CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

2. Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)

3. Rashee Rice (KC)

4. Malik Nabers (NYG)

5. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)

6. Justin Jefferson (MIN)

7. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)

8. Nico Collins (HOU)

9. Chris Godwin (TB)

10. Diontae Johnson (CAR)

11. George Pickens (PIT)

12. Amari Cooper (CLE)

13. D.K. Metcalf (SEA)

14. Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

15. Chris Olave (NO)

16. Terry McLaurin (WAS)

17. Mike Evans (TB)

18. Drake London (ATL)

19. Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

20. D.J. Moore (CHI)

21. Zay Flowers (BAL)

22. Jameson Williams (DET)

23. Tyreek Hill (MIA)

24. Davante Adams (LV)

Tier 2: Probable Starters

25. Rome Odzune (CHI)

SPIN: So that's why Rome Odzune was a top-10 pick in last April's draft. Rome enjoyed a breakout in Week 3, securing 6 of 11 targets for 112 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Entering Week 4, Odunze has averaged the eighth-most air yards per game, and his average depth of target (aDOT) has skyrocketed to 16.4 yards. With the Rams allowing the second-most fantasy points per target (2.06) and fourth-highest aDOT (12.2) to wide receivers, Odunze should be able to build off last week. He belongs in starting lineups.

26. Stefon Diggs (HOU)

27. Khalil Shakir (BUF)

SPIN: It's hard to decipher who we can trust in this Buffalo passing game, but I can't help but be enamored with Khalil Shakir. He easily leads Bills receivers in target share (19.9%) and yards per route run (3.00) in addition to ranking seventh at the position in yards after the catch per reception (8.4). He's tied for the team lead in first-half snap rate (77.1%) and has managed to remain productive despite the last two Bills games being over by the third quarter. This week should be a tighter contest, but that should only elevate Shakir's fantasy status. It doesn't hurt that the Ravens are 21st in scheduled-adjusted pass defense, putting him into WR3 territory this week.

28. Rashid Shaheed (NO)

29. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)

30. Tank Dell (HOU)

31. Darnell Mooney (ATL)

SPIN: It's time we started treating Darnell Mooney like the fantasy starter he is. After a dud in Week 1, Mooney has gone for 16.3 and 10.6 fantasy points the last two weeks, ranking second on the Falcons with a 26.8% target share over that stretch. Mooney was the WR24 with lesser quarterback play back in 2021, so maintaining this production is certainly in his range of outcomes. The Saints present another tough test through the air, but Mooney's consistent role should keep him on the flex radar again this week.

32. Tee Higgins (CIN)

33. Jauan Jennings (SF)

SPIN: So Jauan Jenning went for 41 fantasy points last week. That happened. We can't expect him to catch 3 touchdowns every game, and his 40% target share is likely unsustainable even with San Francisco's skill position players banged up. But he figures to see as much work as he can handle this week and could again operate as the 49ers' primary target with Christian Gonzalez shadowing Brandon Aiyuk. I can't imagine sitting him after last week's outburst -- just keep expectations in check.

34. Deandre Hopkins (TEN)

35. Michael Wilson (ARI)

SPIN: Michael Wilson saw a season-high 9 targets last week, turning in his best fantasy performance of the year. He was on the field for 88.7% of Arizona's snaps and could see even more volume with Trey McBride in the concussion protocol. That sets him up as a low-end WR3 or flex option with the Commanders coming to town. Washington has been a gold mine for opposing receivers, permitting the fourth-highest target rate (23.1%) and most fantasy points per target (2.06) to the position.

Tier 3: On the Fence

36. Calvin Ridley (TEN)

37. Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC)

SPIN: Brian Thomas Jr. took a step back last week, failing to crack double-digit fantasy points for the first time this season. But he still saw the second-highest target share (20.5%) on the team, and he ran the second-most routes among Jacksonville wide receivers. While the Texans have a solid secondary on paper, they've allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per target (1.68) and the highest aDOT (12.8) to wide receivers. That bodes well for Thomas considering he's averaging 2.3 downfield targets (10+ yards) and has a 11.5-yard aDOT on the season.

38. Allen Lazard (NYJ)

39. Christian Kirk (JAC)

40. Jerry Jeudy (CLE)

41. Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

SPIN: With Skylar Thompson -- and later, Tim Boyle -- under center, Jaylen Waddle predictably struggled. He saw only 5 targets on the day, resulting in 26 yards and 4.6 fantasy points. There's a chance that Tyler Huntley -- whom Waddle had offseason reps with -- gets the starting nod under center this week, and I'd be a bit more bullish on Waddle if that comes to fruition. But it's still hard to trust him as the third option on this Miami offense, especially with Tennessee slotting in at 10th in scheduled-adjusted pass defense.

42. Jakobi Meyers (LV)

43. Xavier Worthy (KC)

SPIN: Though he's run the second-most routes among Kansas City receivers over the last two games, Xavier Worthy hasn't been able to replicate his Week 1 magic. He's commanded just a 13.1% target share on the season, making it difficult to trust him in spite of the obvious upside. He's a boom-or-bust option ahead of Week 4's road date with the Chargers -- a secondary allowing the lowest target rate (15.1%) to opposing wide receivers.

44. Tutu Atwell (LA)

SPIN: Tutu Atwell emerged as the Rams' top pass-catcher last week, turning 5 targets (21.7% share) into 93 yards and 11.3 fantasy points. He ran the second-most routes among Rams wideouts and looks like a clear starter for as long as Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp remain out. That's typically a fruitful role when Matthew Stafford is under center, but I'm less excited this week given the matchup. Chicago's allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per target (1.11) to receivers, holding the position to the lowest catch rate over expectation (-9.3%) in the league, according to Next Gen Stats.

45. Jayden Reed (GB)

SPIN: We can elevate Jayden Reed into flex consideration if Jordan Love suits up, but it remains difficult to start any Packers pass catcher so long as Malik Willis is the quarterback. That's especially true this week against Minnesota's eighth-ranked pass defense.

Tier 4: Sit

46. Demarcus Robinson (LA)

47. Jalen Tolbert (DAL)

SPIN: I'm getting closer to trusting Jalen Tolbert as Dallas' WR2 opposite CeeDee Lamb following a pair of strong performances. He ran the second-most routes among Cowboys receivers but saw the fourth-most targets. While the Giants are a good matchup on paper, they've quietly given up the seventh-lowest target rate (17.8%) to opposing wideouts. Keep Tolbert stashed on your bench for now.

48. Ladd McConkey (LAC)

49. Michael Pittman (IND)

SPIN: It's time to panic about Michael Pittman. Though he leads the Colts with a 29.4% target share, Pittman has yet to exceed 6.0 fantasy points in a single game. With a shadow matchup against Pittsburgh's Joey Porter Jr. looming, it's impossible to trust Pittman anywhere near your starting lineup this week.

50. Quentin Johnston (LAC)

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Locks

1. Brock Bowers (LV)

2. Dallas Goedert (PHI)

3. Jake Ferguson (DAL)

4. Travis Kelce (KC)

5. Dalton Kincaid (BUF)

6. Sam LaPorta (DET)

7. Kyle Pitts (ATL)

8. Cole Kmet (CHI)

Tier 2: Starters

9. Isaiah Likely (BAL)

SPIN: Isaiah Likely has posted back-to-back duds after his Week 1 explosion, but he led all Baltimore tight ends in snap rate (65%) and routes run (9) last week. The problem was that Lamar Jackson attempted only 15 passes after the Ravens jumped out to an early lead. That probably won't be the case this week against Buffalo, and that could funnel more looks Likely's way. Entering Week 4, the Bills have allowed the fourth-highest target rate (22.1%) to opposing tight ends. Likely is the Baltimore tight end to start.

10. Pat Freiermuth (PIT)

11. Mike Gesicki (CIN)

SPIN: Mike Gesicki has yet to play more than 50% of snaps in any game this season, but he's seen at least four targets in all three outings. Two of his five targets last week came at least 10 yards down field, and he's still tied with Ja'Marr Chase for the team lead in target share on the season (17.8%). The Panthers have allowed the second-highest target rate (24.2%) and third-most fantasy points per target (1.58) to opposing tight ends, vaulting Gesicki into TE1 territory with the position in flux.

12. Zach Ertz (ARI)

Tier 3: On the Fence

13. Hunter Henry (NE)

SPIN: Hunter Henry saw only 3 targets last week after pacing the team with 12 the week prior, but he still ran the third-most routes among all New England pass catchers. While it's hard to take much away from a game the Patriots were so thoroughly dominated in, that could be the case again this week. The 49ers are 10-point home favorites, while New England has the week's lowest implied total (14.75). There's not much to like here, but we've at least seen Henry get peppered with looks. That's enough to consider him in a pinch.

14. Brenton Strange (JAC)

15. Tyler Conklin (NYJ)

16. Colby Parkinson (LA)

SPIN: Colby Parkinson played 100% of snaps and tied for the team lead in target share (21.7%) last week, but he managed only 3.6 fantasy points. Although his lack of production makes it hard to trust him in starting lineups, the utilization is top notch. That could lead to a better showing against a Bears defense that's surrendered the second-most fantasy points per target (1.95) to tight ends, but he remains a true dart throw given the lack of results in the last three weeks.

Tier 4: Sit

17. Cade Otton (TB)

18. Mark Andrews (BAL)

SPIN: Mark Andrews was on the field for only 33.3% of snaps and ran just four routes in Week 3. He's seen more than two targets just once in three games this season, and John Harbaugh's postgame comments don't offer much optimism for him going forward. There's obvious upside if he reverts to his 2023 role, but right now I can't justify starting him.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.