NASCAR Best Bets: Hollywood Casino 400

For the first time all playoffs, we've finally got some predictability in the NASCAR Cup Series.

Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas is the first race at a 1.5-mile track since Charlotte on Memorial Day weekend. Not only do we see fewer incidents on this track type, but the variance in finishing position among those who are unscathed is lower, too.

This allows us to make some bets at shorter odds that actually do grade out as values in my numbers.

Let's dig into where I'm seeing value now in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, and then we can circle back later if more value arises over the weekend.

NASCAR in Kansas Betting Picks

Tyler Reddick to Finish Top 5 (+100)

There aren't many times where I've been willing to bet a top-five market at even money. But my model's showing value, and history says Tyler Reddick deserves this level of confidence.

Reddick has run 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks since joining 23XI Racing. He has finished top five in exactly half of those, directly in line with the market.

Reddick also enters in good form. He won Michigan -- a good reflection of overall speed -- and had a sixth-place average running position in Darlington. It seems like the issues they had in the first Kansas race (where Reddick finished 20th) have been resolved.

Kansas has historically been 23XI's playplace with three wins here in five Next-Gen races. I can't quite back Reddick to win (he's 10.4% for me versus 10.5% implied at +850), but I can back him to churn out another top-five.

William Byron to Win (+1600)

Similar to Reddick, I do show value on William Byron to finish top five at a relatively short number (+200).

But here, I think the outright is the better route.

Byron is in a slump right now. He has finished 27th or worse in three of the past five races, and he hasn't won since the 8th race of the year.

It's important to remember the kinds of tracks we've seen in that span, though. We've had just three races on 1.5-mile tracks, and Byron podiumed in two of them. He also was top-five in both Pocono and Michigan, more recent races that give us a good indication of overall speed.

This happens with Byron pretty often: he gets off to a hot start, experiments with setups over the summer, and surges in the playoffs. It happened last year when he won in Texas and had a top-six average running position in both Vegas and Homestead in the playoffs. I think we'll see the speed return soon.

My model has Byron at 8.1% to win, way up from 5.9% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.