NASCAR Best Bets: Hollywood Casino 400

For the first time all playoffs, we've finally got some predictability in the NASCAR Cup Series.

Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas is the first race at a 1.5-mile track since Charlotte on Memorial Day weekend. Not only do we see fewer incidents on this track type, but the variance in finishing position among those who are unscathed is lower, too.

This allows us to make some bets at shorter odds that actually do grade out as values in my numbers.

Let's dig into where I'm seeing value now in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, and then we can circle back later if more value arises over the weekend.

NASCAR in Kansas Betting Picks

Tyler Reddick to Finish Top 5 (+100)

(UPDATE: Reddick has since lengthened to +110. I have that as roughly fair value -- I'm at 48.9% now versus 47.6% implied -- so the value here isn't as enticing as it was pre-practice.)

There aren't many times where I've been willing to bet a top-five market at even money. But my model's showing value, and history says Tyler Reddick deserves this level of confidence.

Reddick has run 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks since joining 23XI Racing. He has finished top five in exactly half of those, directly in line with the market.

Reddick also enters in good form. He won Michigan -- a good reflection of overall speed -- and had a sixth-place average running position in Darlington. It seems like the issues they had in the first Kansas race (where Reddick finished 20th) have been resolved.

Kansas has historically been 23XI's playplace with three wins here in five Next-Gen races. I can't quite back Reddick to win (he's 10.4% for me versus 10.5% implied at +850), but I can back him to churn out another top-five.

William Byron to Win (+1600)

(UPDATE: Byron has since shortened to +1000. That's much longer than where some other books have him, and he's still a value for me. I've got Byron at 11.1% to win, up from 9.1% implied.)

Similar to Reddick, I do show value on William Byron to finish top five at a relatively short number (+200).

But here, I think the outright is the better route.

Byron is in a slump right now. He has finished 27th or worse in three of the past five races, and he hasn't won since the 8th race of the year.

It's important to remember the kinds of tracks we've seen in that span, though. We've had just three races on 1.5-mile tracks, and Byron podiumed in two of them. He also was top-five in both Pocono and Michigan, more recent races that give us a good indication of overall speed.

This happens with Byron pretty often: he gets off to a hot start, experiments with setups over the summer, and surges in the playoffs. It happened last year when he won in Texas and had a top-six average running position in both Vegas and Homestead in the playoffs. I think we'll see the speed return soon.

My model has Byron at 8.1% to win, way up from 5.9% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Kyle Larson to Win (+450)

Kyle Larson is the runaway favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, sitting at +450 while nobody else is shorter than +650.

I still think he's a value.

Larson will start 11th but had the fastest single-lap speed in practice, once you adjust for group speed differentials. Larson had the best overall speed in practice, too, based on The Action Network's Dr. Nick Giffin's FLAGS metric, which adjusts for how fast a driver was throughout a run.

Larson won the first Kansas race this year, was leading on the final lap in one of the races last year, and finished fourth in the other. Combine that with his recent form, and I've got Larson at 22.6% to win, up from 18.2% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+170)

I do have value in Ty Gibbs to win at +1300, but with the Larson and Byron outrights looking solid, I'd prefer to ride with the more forgiving market.

Gibbs had tons of speed Saturday. In addition to qualifying second, he was eighth in single-lap, second in five-lap, and fifth in 10-lap average during practice, after adjusting for group speed differentials. Given the qualifying position, I'm surprised he didn't shorten more.

Gibbs finished 32nd in the first Kansas race but had a 9th-place average running position there. He had a top-five finish in Vegas and fourth-place average running positions in both Charlotte and the first Darlington race. Thus, I agree with the model, which puts Gibbs at 47.1% to finish top 5, up from 37.0% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.