3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Wednesday 9/25/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB projections and FanDuel Research's MLB DFS projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Orioles Moneyline (+118)

The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have each clinched a playoff berth and the Yanks have nearly clinched the AL East. In order for the O's to have a chance at the division, they would need to win out in their next five games while the Yankees would have to lose out for the remainder of the regular season. So, there's not a whole lot at stake tonight in terms of playoff positioning, but home-field advantage in the postseason is still at the forefront for both groups.

Zach Eflin will take the bump for Baltimore. Nestor Cortes was scheduled to start for New York, but he had to get an MRI on his left elbow this morning, indicating that he will not be ready to go on Wednesday. The Yankees are expected to recall Cody Poteet, tonight's projected starter. In turn, I like Baltimore in this one.

Eflin has dominated 2024 to the tune of a 3.53 ERA, 3.47 xERA, 3.70 xFIP, and 3.85 SIERA. Since joining the Orioles in late July, he has managed a 2.31 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, 3.56 SIERA, and a 22.8% strikeout rate.

New York's offense has posted an underwhelming -- by Yankee standards -- .306 wOBA (14th) and .375 SLG (20th) across the last 30 days of play. I trust Elfin to limit this offense more than I do New York's staff to limit Baltimore's offense.

If Cortes manages to go, he could see his 48.9% fly-ball rate allowed (fourth-highest in MLB) exploited by an Orioles team that comes in with a 40.8% fly-ball rate (second-highest) and have smashed 228 homers (second-most) this season.

If instead Poteet is thrown out there, things could get even uglier. Poteet has not made an appearance in the majors since June. He'll now take on the tall task of not only making a last-minute start but doing so against an offense that touts a .434 SLG (third) and .323 wOBA (seventh). Plus, Jordan Westburg recently returned to the O's following a stint on the IL. He's pummeled righties with a .227 ISO, .508 SLG, and 136 wRC+ this season.

I favor the Orioles straight-up tonight, so I'm happy to grab their moneyline at +118 odds.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+116)

The Boston Red Sox aren't going off into the night quietly. Despite an ultra-slim chance at making the playoffs, Boston is still kicking after winning four straight games and posting 27 runs in that span.

Kevin Gausman will take them on tonight, and I like the under on his strikeout prop.

Gausman's strikeout numbers this season have been his lowest since 2018. He comes in with a 21.8% strikeout rate and punches out 8.18 batters per nine innings. He's recorded under 5.5 Ks in 17 out of 30 starts (56.7% of contests), but these +116 odds imply only a 46.3% probability.

The Red Sox strike out at a high 24.3% rate (sixth-highest in MLB) against righties, but Gausman has struggled against them this season, letting up 11 hits, seven earned runs, and just nine strikeouts through 11 2/3 innings pitched.

Gausman had a no-no through five innings in his most recent start but was pulled after just 58 pitches due to back stiffness. Although we can assume he's fine given that the Jays are throwing him out there tonight, it does suggest that an already-eliminated Toronto team has no problem pulling the plug on their veteran early.

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Masyn Winn To Record An RBI (+130)

The St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies will square off for a game that features a slate-high 10.0 over/under. The market is handing the Cardinals a 5.5 implied team total while numberFire's MLB game projections expect them to tally a whopping 7.05 runs tonight.

All signs are pointing to a rowdy night from St. Louis' offense, yet every single one of their players owns plus odds to record an RBI. I want to get in on this market, and Masyn Winn's got a pretty solid case to bat in a run tonight.

The Cardinals will take on Austin Gomber. He struggles with a 5.21 xERA and 16.8% strikeout rate. He also coughs up a .242 ISO, .523 SLG, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 2.03 home runs per nine innings at Coors Field.

Winn, meanwhile, touts a .234 ISO, .480 SLG, and a massive 49.6% fly-ball rate (10th-highest in MLB) versus southpaws. This is a great matchup for him in a projected high-scoring game, so I'll back Winn to bat in a run tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.