Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City

For the first time in the modern era, the NASCAR Cup Series is holding a points race on international soil.

Vamos.

The field is in Mexico City to race at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, which previously hosted NASCAR Xfinity Series races and is a regular stop for Formula 1. The elevation will provide a unique test, as will the lengthy front stretch.

Who should we expect to come out on top for Sunday's thriller?

Below are my model's pre-practice simulations for the race. After that, we'll run through which drivers stand out as values to me in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

(NOTE: The sims have since been updated after practice and qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Mexico City

NASCAR Betting Picks for Mexico City

Tyler Reddick to Win (+900)

(UPDATE: Reddick has since lengthened to +2000 to win. He didn't have great pace during practice or qualifying, and thus, even at the longer number, I'm no longer showing value in him.)

Technically, William Byron is the better value in my sims. He's above Tyler Reddick, and both guys are +900 at FanDuel.

I just have a personal preference for Reddick, so I'm going that way. Congrats to Byron on his imminent win.

Reddick gets the nod for me due to his sterling record on road courses. He has won 3 of 18 Next-Gen road-course races, and he has podiumed in two others. One of those podiums was this year at COTA when he finished third with a sixth-place average running position.

Reddick's road-course wins have come at three different venues, showing he can get around a variety of circuits. He's 12.5% to win for me, so I'm happy to take him at +900.

AJ Allmendinger to Win (+1400)

(UPDATE: Allmendinger has since lengthened to +2200. Although he qualified eighth, Allmendinger wasn't fast in practice Friday. I still think the +1400 tickets have some level of hope, but I would not bet him at +2200 with the knowledge we have now.)

AJ Allmendinger has always been a force on road courses, but his overall form now is the best it has been in a long time. That boosts my confidence in him at a forgiving number.

Allmendinger enters with 4 top-10s in 15 races this year, including a top-5 in Charlotte. None of those great runs have come on road courses, making it clear that Kaulig Racing's raw pace is up.

Allmendinger had good speed at COTA this year, holding a sixth-place average running position. A loose wheel on the final run ruined that, though, and he finished 30th.

During the Next-Gen era, Dinger has a win at the Charlotte ROVAL and a runner-up in Watkins Glen. He lost out to then-teammate Shane Van Gisbergen in the Xfinity Series last year as he failed to win any of their six road-course races, so it's possible Allmendinger's supremacy has slipped. But at +1400, we're getting enough of a discount to still bet him this week.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Gibbs has since shortened to -105 to finish top 5. He was among the fastest cars on Friday and Saturday, so this move is earned, and he is still a value for me there. I'd rather bet him outright at +900, though, if Gibbs weren't already on my card.)

Given Ty Gibbs' erratic form, I want as little money tied up into him as possible. That could mean betting his outright at +3400 rather than his top 5 (as our bet size should typically decrease as the odds of the bet winning decrease).

I'm just way above market on his top-five odds, and going here makes me feel more comfortable backing both Reddick and Allmendinger to win. I'd still proceed with caution, but I do think this is the proper way to play Gibbs.

The extreme skepticism stems from the fact that Gibbs has flopped in his third full-time Cup season. He has just 3 top-10s in 15 races, an unacceptable rate for someone in his equipment. He has often slipped even after putting up great times in practice.

This was true at COTA, too. Gibbs was just non-competitive there, which is concerning given it's the lone road course we've seen.

Still, the talent is there, especially on road courses. He was top-three in both Chicago and COTA last year, and he's a four-time Xfinity winner on road courses. He also is coming off arguably his best race of the year, a third-place finish in Nashville.

If you don't want on the Gibbs roller coaster, I don't blame you. It's probably the wise move. I just can't resist when I'm this far above market on him, so I do want in, whether it's via this top-five or the outright.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Shane Van Gisbergen to Win (+280)

I don't like having three outrights at +1400 or shorter on my card, so this is a deviation in my process. I just can't pass up the value my model is showing in Shane Van Gisbergen.

SVG will start from the pole after he topped Saturday's charts. In Friday's opening practice, the average speed of his four fastest laps ranked third, and he was first in the eight-lap split. He had consistent, sustainable pace.

In Van Gisbergen's three Cup road-course races with Trackhouse, he has a win, three top-10s, and a pair of top-five average running positions. One of those was this year at COTA, though he fell off in the third stage there. He also won three races in the Xfinity Series last year, showing his talent is immense. That's why I'm willing to get a bit over-exposed to one market for this week as I think SVG is worth that shift.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Joey Logano to Finish Top 10 (+180)

I'm worried Joey Logano will prioritize stage points in Mexico City, as he typically does on road courses. That's why I can't go into higher-upside markets even though I show value.

A top-10 does seem realistic, though, so I can get exposure to him via this route.

Logano had consistent speed in both practice and qualifying. He was 11th or better in each practice metric I looked at, and he qualified ninth.

In 18 Next-Gen road course races, Logano has 7 top-10 finishes. That's a rate of 38.9%, and his implied odds are 35.7% here. Due to the early pace he has shown, I'm a bit higher on him at 43.5%. I'll just have to hope strategy doesn't curtail him to where he can't make up ground late.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.