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4 NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 11

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

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4 NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 11

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Bets: Week 11

Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+210)

All signs point to this week being a perfect opportunity for Jameson Williams to have a notable performance for the Detroit Lions. Besides taking the over on Williams' receiving yards in our expert picks article for Week 11, I love the value on backing the big-play wideout to score a TD in Sunday's matchup versus the Jacksonville Jaguars.

As mentioned in the expert picks piece, Jacksonville's defense is ranked dead last in deep yards per target allowed (13.1) and 29th in pressure rate (29.7%), per NextGenStats. This should lead to Jared Goff having more time to survey the field and push the ball vertically rather than settling for short passes to avoid pressure.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Jameson Williams

According to PFF, Goff is registering the fourth-most yards per attempt (9.0) and fourth-most passing TDs (14) when kept clean among qualified QBs. Meanwhile, Williams is producing a 36.2% air yards share, 15.2-yard average depth of target, 3.1 downfield targets (targets of 10-plus yards) per game, and 2.15 yards per route run in the seven games he's been active in this season.

Receivers have had no issues finding the end zone against the Jags as they are allowing the 12th-most receiving TDs (10) to the position. With Sam LaPorta uncertain to play on Sunday for the Lions with a shoulder injury, I'm liking the chances of Goff connecting with Williams (likely on a deep throw) for a TD at these odds.

George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+135)

It's no secret that the Baltimore Ravens are an extreme pass-funnel defense (30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense and 3rd in schedule-adjusted run defense), which is fantastic news for George Pickens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although it's still a small sample, Pickens has become much more productive with Russell Wilson as the starting signal-caller for the Steelers.

In Wilson's three starts, Pickens leads Pittsburgh's offense in target share (26.6%), air yards share (41.4%), downfield targets per game (3.7), and yards per route run (3.33). Pickens has scored a TD in two of the three contests with Wilson starting, and he would've scored in Week 8 if it weren't for a TD being called back due to a penalty and another being taken off the board because he didn't get both feet down in time.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
George Pickens

The matchup doesn't get much better for Pickens this week as the Ravens are permitting the second-most receptions (144), most receiving yards (1,992), most receiving TDs (16), and seventh-most yards per route run (1.72) to WRs. Additionally, Baltimore is 28th in deep yards per target allowed (11.7) and 25th in pressure rate (31.9%) while Wilson is averaging 284.9 air yards per game and a 10.1-yard average depth of target across his three starts.

Similar to Jameson Williams, there's a chance Pickens' TD is via a deep pass against a struggling secondary. Considering that Pickens also has team-high marks in red-zone target share (35.7%) and end-zone target share (45.5%) with Wilson at the helm, he'll likely see the majority of targets when the Steelers get in scoring position.

Kenneth Walker Anytime Touchdown (+105)

Leading up to their bye week in Week 10, the Seattle Seahawks were sputtering on both sides of the ball as their offense was unable to consistently move the ball with D.K. Metcalf sidelined. The good news for the Seahawks is that it seems pretty likely that Metcalf returns on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers after logging a full practice session earlier this week.

While Metcalf's return would be a major boost for Seattle's offense, Kenneth Walker III has been a consistent bright spot for them this season. Throughout the seven games he's been active in this year, Walker is sporting a 63.5% snap rate, 46.5% route rate, 18.4 touches per game, 87.9 scrimmage yards per game, and a 69.6% red-zone rushing share.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Kenneth Walker III

Walker's consistent usage inside the opponent's 20-yard line has led to him scoring at least one TD in five of his seven outings. When looking at TD scorers each week, I love prioritizing RBs with multiple avenues to score who are at plus odds, and Walker's 13.4% target share and 24.1% target rate are elite metrics for a RB.

San Francisco's defense isn't one we should be too scared of targeting as they are sitting at 24th in schedule-adjusted run defense. Just to improve our case even further, the 49ers are also allowing 10th-most receptions (46), 8th-most receiving yards (357), 12th-highest target rate (20.5%), and 8th-most yards per route run (1.38) to the RB position.

Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown (+105)

Another RB who has multiple avenues to find the end zone in Week 11 is Chase Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals. Brown has taken on a massive workload in his last two games with Zack Moss inactive, which is why it was somewhat surprising to see him at plus odds to score on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Over the last two weeks, Brown has logged an 83.6% snap rate, 68.3% route rate, 17.6% target share, 23.2% target rate, 27 touches per game, and 125.5 scrimmage yards per game. The red-zone role has also been elite for Brown as he's handled an 88.9% red-zone rushing share since Week 9 while he's found the end zone at least once in six of his last seven contests.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Chase Brown

Currently, it appears that Tee Higgins is going to make a return for the Bengals on Sunday night versus the Chargers. While Higgins' return could lead to fewer touches for Brown -- primarily in the passing game -- having him back should lead to more scoring opportunities as Cincy is averaging 28.6 points per game with Higgins active and 25.4 points per game when he's inactive.

Despite the Chargers being 11th in schedule-adjusted run defense and allowing a total of two TDs to RBs all season, volume typically wins out when it comes to RBs -- and Brown is unquestionably getting plenty of volume. With the Bengals desperately needing a win to remain in the postseason hunt, I expect Brown to remain heavily involved in their game plan in Week 11.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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