3 Best NFL SGP Bets for Week 11
Looking for a new way to bet on the NFL this season? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!
SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.
This article will provide some SGPs builds to consider each week based on the games and props available, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!
Which correlated bets stand out for this week's NFL action?
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL SGP Bets to Target: Week 11
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+140)
DeAndre Hopkins 60+ Receiving Yards (+128)
Over 42.5 (-194)
Combined Odds: +505
The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) will visit the Buffalo Bills (8-2) for what might just be the game of the year. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points and the game is showing a 46.5 over/under.
Josh Allen is a do-it-all player in these types of contests, so let's look for him to score a touchdown. Dating back to last season, Allen has run one in with his legs in 55.6% of games. It's easy to be keen on his +140 touchdown odds, which imply just a 41.6% probability. The Chiefs are letting up the 10th-most carries and 11th-most touchdowns to opposing QBs.
Over on Kansas City's side, let's look for DeAndre Hopkins to log 60-plus receiving yards. After getting acclimated with his new team in Week 8, Hopkins has since seen a 24.5% air yards share and is averaging 2.37 yards per route run. He reeled in 86 yards in Week 10 and managed 56 yards against a tough Denver Broncos defense last week. Past Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes doesn't have a whole ton of pass-catching threats at his disposal. This game ranks fourth in pace on the Week 11 slate, so Hopkins should see plenty of opportunities to eat up yardage.
Since we're backing both offenses to produce, let's tack on over 42.5 points to this SGP. That addition brings our odds from +383 up to +505. Not only does this contest figure to take on a quick pace, but it also features two of the top 10 schedule-adjusted offenses. If Allen and Hopkins both manage to do their thing, this alt total shouldn't have much trouble coming in.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers 80+ Receiving Yards (+200)
George Pickens Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Over 48.5 (-108)
Combined Odds: +581
An AFC North bout between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens is another one of Sunday's marquee games.
The Ravens (2nd) and Steelers (3rd) have two of the best schedule-adjusted rush defenses in the league, but Baltimore's pass defense checks in at the 30th spot while the Steelers rank 13th. Add in a close spread (3.0) and high game total (48.5), and this one sets up to be a pass-heavy game.
Zay Flowers holds a 26.4% target share and is averaging 2.55 yards per route run. That's helped him tally at least 111 yards in four of his last six games. The Steelers, meanwhile, are letting up the ninth-most yards and fourth-most yards per catch to opposing WRs, so I want to target Zay in the alt market. He's exemplified a massive and consistent ceiling and the Ravens may look to utilize him even more if the Steelers, who allow just 3.87 yards per carry (sixth-fewest in the NFL), manage to limit Derrick Henry.
George Pickens is another worthy target. He's got a 28.1% target share, 45.1% air yards share, and is averaging 3.00 yards per route run in three games with Russell Wilson. So far, he and Russ have connected for 111, 74, and 91 yards. Baltimore figures to devote ample defensive attention to Pickens, but this is still the same opponent that has let up the third-most yards per catch and the most yards to WRs.
If Flowers and Pickens each go for 70 or more, the over should look peachy. Baltimore's games are averaging an unreal 57.1 points. Pittsburgh's offense is averaging 30.3 points with Russ under center and their games in this span are netting 50.3 points.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+160)
Josh Downs 60+ Receiving Yards (+186)
Combined Odds: +504
The Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets will square off for a game that could start to spoil the loser's playoff hopes. Davante Adams' scoring prop just popped up on FanDuel, and it might be my favorite touchdown bet of the week.
Adams is seeing a 30.2% target share, 34.4% air yards share, and 31.8% red zone target share since joining the Jets. He'll now take on a Colts team that ranks 24th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. We can get Adams' touchdown prop at +160 odds, which imply just a 38.4% probability. I think he's quite undervalued in this market, and our NFL projections expect him to score 0.61 receiving touchdowns this weekend, which is the highest projection on the entire Week 11 main slate.
Josh Downs is another player who I like more than the market does. Downs has logged 60-plus yards in six out of eight games this season. A toe injury limited him to just a 50.0% route rate in Week 7, so he's achieved 60 yards in all but one contest in which he was a full go. Anthony Richardson is back in the fold for the Colts. Downs has a 28.6% target share in games where both he and Richardson were a full play. Most recently, this pair connected for 109 yards in Week 8 versus the Houston Texans. Downs may get a negative bump with Richardson in instead of Joe Flacco, but 60 yards isn't too tall of a task for someone with his usage.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.