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Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 11's Fastest Games
Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.
Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.
Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.
These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.
This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).
Here are the fresh numbers for this week -- plus a ranking for each upcoming matchup.
NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation
This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.
Pass/Run Plays Only | Plays/G | Rank | Adj Pace | Rank | Pass% + PROE | Rank | Pass Rate OE | Rank | Non-2MD No Huddle% | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 63.4 | 6 | 26.0 | 1 | 64.4% | 5 | -1.7% | 11 | 12.6% | 11 |
| WAS | 61.4 | 14 | 27.2 | 2 | 49.3% | 22 | -1.1% | 10 | 61.9% | 1 |
| ATL | 61.0 | 18 | 27.2 | 3 | 51.7% | 19 | -6.0% | 23 | 17.2% | 6 |
| SEA | 62.4 | 11 | 27.2 | 4 | 68.7% | 2 | 3.0% | 2 | 28.7% | 3 |
| KC | 65.2 | 2 | 27.3 | 5 | 58.0% | 9 | 1.8% | 6 | 0.4% | 32 |
| NO | 61.4 | 14 | 27.5 | 6 | 48.2% | 24 | -6.5% | 26 | 9.4% | 15 |
| DET | 59.6 | 23 | 28.0 | 7 | 43.1% | 29 | -6.8% | 27 | 1.5% | 31 |
NFL Week 11 Pace and Pass Rate Preview
Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.
Matchup Averages | Pace | Rank | Pass% + PROE | Rank | Away Pace | Home Pace | Away Pass%+ | Home Pass%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DAL | 27.8 | 1 | 59.7% | 1 | 29.6 | 26.0 | 55.1% | 64.4% |
| ATL@DEN | 28.1 | 2 | 54.0% | 8 | 27.2 | 28.9 | 51.7% | 56.3% |
| CLE@NO | 28.2 | 3 | 57.9% | 5 | 28.9 | 27.5 | 67.6% | 48.2% |
| KC@BUF | 28.4 | 4 | 55.9% | 6 | 27.3 | 29.5 | 58.0% | 53.8% |
| WAS@PHI | 28.7 | 5 | 43.8% | 13 | 27.2 | 30.2 | 49.3% | 38.4% |
| JAX@DET | 28.8 | 6 | 49.8% | 11 | 29.5 | 28.0 | 56.6% | 43.1% |
| GB@CHI | 28.8 | 7 | 49.3% | 12 | 29.3 | 28.3 | 43.6% | 55.0% |
Week 11 Pace Winners
- The New York Jets, the slowest team in the NFL, will always be playing up in pace, but this week, they're up against a top-eight team in the Indianapolis Colts.
- While the Dallas Cowboys played their slowest adjusted pace in Week 10 without Dak Prescott, they were still a full second faster than the NFL average. This should help the Houston Texans -- 25th in pace but 1st in regulation plays -- run plenty of plays in Week 11 under a roof.
- The San Francisco 49ers ran 60 scrimmage plays against the Seattle Seahawks in their Week 6 meeting, in line with their rate over the last six weeks (60.0).
- The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders square up on Thursday Night Football this week, which is really interesting, as the Eagles are already fifth in regulation plays per game. Washington is the fastest team by adjusted pace since Week 7.
- One of the marquee games of the week -- if not the game of the week -- should lead to better play volume for the Buffalo Bills at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. KC continually runs an uptempo offense week after week, and we just saw Buffalo pick up the tempo against a fast Colts team.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
