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NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 11

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 11

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 11

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs +2.5 (-115)

Spread

Nov 17 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

NFL "spots" don't get much more notorious than this one. In a season where the Kansas City Chiefs have found a way to win every game, Patrick Mahomes is now a betting underdog for the 14th time in his career, and he's got a 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) record in these spots -- including three games in last year's postseason. The Buffalo Bills' top offensive weapons are banged up, and they've allowed at least 145 rushing yards in their past two games when K.C. has forged an identity on the ground behind Kareem Hunt.

Total: Seahawks-49ers Over 48.5 (-108)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 17 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Nick Chubb Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Nick Chubb - Rushing Yds

Nick Chubb Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Broncos -1.5 (-115)

Spread

Denver Broncos
Nov 17 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Ravens-Steelers Under 48.5 (-112)

Total Match Points

Under
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Nick Chubb Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Nick Chubb - Rushing Yds

Nick Chubb Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

We haven't seen a Chubb breakout game yet; this is a great spot for it. The New Orleans Saints own the second-worst schedule-adjusted run defense and are allowing 113.3 rushing yards per game to running backs. Chubb has 31 carries across his past two games and could see his snap rate jump off a bye week.

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -5.5 (-120)

Spread

Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Falcons-Broncos Over 43.5 (-115)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 17 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Prior to sleepwalking into a surprise loss to New Orleans last week, Atlanta Falcons games had exceeded this line in six straight as a team that typically finds itself in high-scoring contests. The Falcons not only rank ninth in schedule-adjusted offense, but they also rank third in adjusted pace, leading to this game projecting as the week's second-fastest matchup. Despite the Denver Broncos struggling to score points lately, Bo Nix has improved over the course of the season and should be able to get going against a below-average Atlanta defense.

Player Prop: George Pickens Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

George Pickens - Receiving Yds

George Pickens Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Lions -13.5 (-115)

Spread

Detroit Lions
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Browns-Saints Over 44.5 (-108)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Taysom Hill Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Taysom Hill - Receiving Yds

Taysom Hill Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

In three games since returning from injury, Hill has recorded 21, 41, and 36 receiving yards. Hill has commanded a 12.6% target share in that span, second among Saints who played all three games. That isn't an earth-shattering mark, but it's led to him seeing nearly 4 targets per game -- more than enough looks for him to go over 16.5 yards against the Cleveland Browns' 18th-ranked pass defense.

Annie Nader, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: 49ers -6.5 (-112)

Spread

San Francisco 49ers
Nov 17 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Ravens-Steelers Over 48.5 (-108)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Zay Flowers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Zay Flowers - Receiving Yds

Zay Flowers Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Flowers is enjoying a 26.4% target share, 29.0% air yards share, and is averaging 2.55 yards per route run. He’s exploded for 100 yards in four of his last six contests and should be in line for a busy Sunday in a game that’s showing a high total and close spread. Pittsburgh and Baltimore rank second and third in adjusted rush defense, so the passing game looks primed to steer the ship in this one.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Broncos -1.5 (-115)

Spread

Denver Broncos
Nov 17 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Packers-Bears Under 40.5 (-112)

Total Match Points

Under
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Puka Nacua Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Puka Nacua - Receiving Yds

Puka Nacua Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Since Week 8, Nacua (22.5%) and Cooper Kupp (24.2%) are nearly even in target share. However, Puka has led the Los Angeles Rams in air yards share during the span (30.2%). Week 11’s matchup against the New England Patriots should mean another big day for Nacua. He’s reached at least 98 receiving yards in two of his last three and logged 14 targets in Week 10. The Pats hold the league’s 13th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense, and I’m not too worried about a positive game script with L.A. favored by only 4.5 points. The Rams have the seventh-highest implied total of the week at 24.0 points, and Nacua is holding 74.5 projected receiving yards, according to our NFL DFS projections.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs +2.5 (-115)

Spread

Nov 17 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Jaguars-Lions Over 46.5 (-115)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Jameson Williams Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Jameson Williams - Receiving Yds

Jameson Williams Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

This is the perfect week for Williams to have an explosive outing for the Detroit Lions as the Jacksonville Jaguars are 32nd in deep yards per target (13.1) and 29th in pressure rate (29.7%), via NextGenStats, which should allow vertical routes to develop for Williams. On top of that, the Jags are giving up the fourth-most receiving yards (1,671), fourth-highest catch rate over expected (+3.3%), and eighth-most yards per route run (1.68) to WRs.

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Ravens -3 (-120)

Spread

Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Lions' Team Total Over 30.5 (-110)

Lions Total Points

Over
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

I've got value in this game's total over, but I don't want to tie real, American dollars to Mac Jones. The Lions can be explosive even while trying to burn clock, so I don't think they'll require pushback to score into the 30s.

Player Prop: Josh Allen Any Time Touchdown (+140)

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Josh Allen


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Interested in more NFL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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