4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 4
When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.
This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?
All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 4
Derrick Henry vs. Bills Rush Defense
The undefeated Buffalo Bills just put up 47 points on the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars and continue to sit atop numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, so there's definitely risk in rostering a running back against them who has proven to be very game-script dependent.
However, despite the Baltimore Ravens' 1-2 record, they're sixth in our power rankings and are 2.5-point favorites at home against these Bills on Sunday night. This should be a competitive matchup between two of the AFC's top teams.
And if Baltimore is to have success against Buffalo, there's a very good chance it's because of a big game from Derrick Henry ($8,400).
That's because the Bills are showing signs of being a rather extreme run funnel defense. Per numberFire's metrics, they rank 1st in schedule-adjusted pass defense, whereas they're 28th in adjusted rush defense. PFF's team grades paint a similar picture, placing Buffalo 26th in rush defense while grading them 5th in pass rush and 13th in coverage.
In Week 3, Henry demonstrated he still possesses plenty of upside when everything breaks right. In a game that Baltimore led from start to finish against the Dallas Cowboys -- a team that's 32nd in adjusted rush D -- Henry saw a season-high 27.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and garnered a higher snap rate than Justice Hill (60% to 40%) for the first time. The end result was 174 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs on his way to a massive 32.9 FanDuel points.
Clearly, there's no guarantee a similar game script will play out against an elite team like the Bills, and if the Ravens find themselves playing from behind, chances are Henry's workload drops closer to the 18.5 adjusted opportunities he averaged over the first two weeks.
Still, the ceiling is worth shooting for in tournaments, and his role near the goal line gives him a solid floor despite his low usage in the passing game. Even with the presence of Lamar Jackson and Hill, Henry's logged a 75% rush share inside the 10-yard line and 100% inside the 5-yard line. He's scored four rushing touchdowns so far with three coming from inside the 10-yard line, helping him to double-digit FanDuel points in all three weeks.
Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Commanders Pass Defense
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an underwhelming performance against the Detroit Lions, but they're in a get-right spot against the Washington Commanders. Arizona is showing a slate-best 27.0-point implied team total in a game that has a shootout-worthy 50.5 over/under.
Kyler Murray ($8,700) and Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,200) have a particularly tantalizing matchup versus a team that's allowed the most FanDuel points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers through three weeks. Washington is not only ranked 32nd in adjusted pass defense, but PFF grades them 29th in pass rush and 31st in coverage.
Murray's dual-threat upside should shine against such a vulnerable opponent, and that was on full display in Week 2 when he piled up 28.5 FanDuel points versus the Los Angeles Rams. Despite last week's poor showing, Kyler has been efficient through the air, averaging 0.15 expected points added per drop back and a 4.9% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He's also averaging 5.0 carries and 53.7 rushing yards per game, and while he probably won't remain quite this efficient, it's a reminder of how much damage he can do with his legs on just a handful of runs.
After Harrison was shockingly targeted just three times in Week 1, Murray has since looked his way early and often, resulting in a 34.5% target share and 54.8% air yards share over the last two games. He's averaged 7.5 downfield targets (10+ air yards) in that sample while also being the main receiving option near the goal line (75% red zone target share).
Harrison is becoming everything we were hoping for entering the season, making this Murray-Harrison pairing an easy stack to get on board with this week.
If you're looking for value, tight end Trey McBride ($6,800) is in the concussion protocol, and if he sits, that should open up looks for No. 2 wideout Michael Wilson ($5,300). Greg Dortch ($5,000) could have some deep sleeper potential, as well.
Diontae Johnson vs. Bengals Pass Defense
The Carolina Panthers's offense might not be a dumpster fire anymore following the switch at quarterback to Andy Dalton, and while they're not going to score 36 points every week, they may finally have some fantasy relevance going forward.
One of the biggest winners in the Carolina offense was Diontae Johnson ($6,200), who caught 8 of 14 targets (7 downfield targets) for 122 yards and a touchdown (25.2 FanDuel points) with Dalton at the helm. Overall, his usage came to a 37.8% target share and 63.2% air yards share. Johnson also recorded by far a team-best 94.9% route rate, further affirming his status as Dalton's No. 1 option.
Prior to this breakout, Johnson had scored just 5.9 FanDuel points total across the first two weeks. He's unlikely to turn into a fantasy superstar for the rest of the season, but it's a great sign that we can roster him in the right matchups.
That might be the case this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals lost a 38-33 shootout to the Commanders on Monday and could have another high-scoring affair against these Panthers, as the over/under is set at 47.5 points.
Both defenses sit inside the bottom five in adjusted total defense and adjusted pass defense, which could pave the way for fantasy points on both sides. Johnson projects as the best point-per-dollar value at wide receiver, per our NFL DFS projections.
The 0-3 Bengals are desperate for a win and have the slate's second-best implied team total (26.5), so I particularly like the idea of stacking Cincinnati's passing attack and utilizing Johnson as a bring-back option. Joe Burrow ($8,000) went off for 28.4 FanDuel points in Week 3, and while Ja'Marr Chase ($9,200) is the obvious stacking partner, Tee Higgins ($7,200), Andrei Iosivas ($5,500), and Mike Gesicki ($5,600) provide several options at different salary tiers.
Breece Hall vs. Broncos Rush Defense
The Denver Broncos are fresh off an upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and have actually been solid defensively, ranking eighth in adjusted total defense.
But this more about the fact that the New York Jets are 7.5-point home favorites, and that should lead to a voluminous role for running back Breece Hall ($8,000) in a positive game script.
Although the Jets have started to give rookie RB Braelon Allen a bigger role over the last two weeks, it really hasn't put a significant dent in Hall's usage. The lead back has recorded 28, 30, and 26 adjusted opportunities, and he still saw an elite 82.1% first-half snap rate last Thursday against the New England Patriots before the game got out of hand.
While Denver has performed well on defense, they're still only 27th in adjusted offense and could struggle to move the ball, setting up short fields for the Jets' offense. Further, we aren't paying a premium to roster Hall compared to other elite backs on the slate, and our model actually has him as the best point-per-dollar value among running backs.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.