Fantasy Football: 4 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 4

The third week of the 2024 NFL season provided us with more information for each team on both sides of the ball. Some teams have already made changes at QB while others are shuffling personnel, making it crucial for us to keep tabs on trends around the league to gain an edge in fantasy football.

When mentioning 'trends', that includes player's usage, adjusted pace, team pass rates, defensive schemes, and other factors. Within this article, we'll be discussing a few trends that could be valuable to know ahead of the Week 4 slate of contests.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 4

Bucky Irving Continues to Look More Explosive Than Rachaad White

A season ago, Rachaad White had a stranglehold on the backfield workload for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, garnering 336 of the team's 442 RB touches. With a massive workload, White finished as the RB7 in half-PPR formats despite recording an inefficient 3.6 yards per attempt.

While White has began this season as the primary starter for the Bucs, rookie Bucky Irving has proven to be more explosive and efficient on the ground.

At the moment, White is registering 22.0 rushing yards per game, -1.49 rushing yards over expected per attempt, -0.35 expected points added per attempt, and a 25.8% rushing success rate, via NextGenStats.

On the other hand, Irving is producing 51.3 rushing yards per game, -0.08 rushing yards over expected per attempt, 0.15 expected points added per attempt, and a 44.0% rushing success rate despite averaging nearly 20 fewer snaps than White per game.

Just this past week in a loss to the Denver Broncos, Irving racked up 70 rushing yards on 9 carries and 14 receiving yards on 3 catches while White logged only 17 rushing yards on 6 carries and 18 receiving yards on 5 receptions.

Even though White remains the current starter, it's only a matter of time before Irving continues to get more touches, which is why our Riley Thomas has Irving listed as one of his favorite waiver-wire options in Week 4.

The Packers Have Become a Run-Heavy Team With Malik Willis at QB

When Jordan Love went down with a knee injury in Week 1, many expected the Green Bay Packers to consider adding a QB to fill in until Love could return. Instead, Matt LaFleur and the Packers have fully leaned into the skill set of Malik Willis, becoming a run-heavy offense.

In two starts for Green Bay, Willis has attempted only 33 passes, completing 25 of them for 324 yards and 2 TDs. Across that same two-game span, the Packers have also run the ball a whopping 90 times for 449 yards, which has propelled them to the league lead in rushing yards per game (204.0).

Additionally, with Willis operating the offense, the Packers are now ranked 32nd in pass rate over expected and 25th in adjusted pace through three weeks of action. Limiting the number of times Willis puts the ball in the air and handing the ball to Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson has been Green Bay's identity on offense in back-to-back wins.

It appears that Love is nearing a return for the Packers as he's returned to practice, so the pass rate should trend upward once Love is back under center. But until that officially happens, Green Bay's pass-catchers are tough to trust in a Willis-led offense that is excelling primarily on the ground.

Derrick Henry Will Out-Snap Justice Hill in Only Positive Game Scripts

The Tennessee Titans handed the same number of snaps to Tyjae Spears and Derrick Henry last season, and it appears to be more of the same for Henry on the Baltimore Ravens.

Up to this point, it's clear that Henry is going to receive more snaps for the Ravens only if they are in a positive game script -- like they were in Week 3 versus the Dallas Cowboys.

For the first time this season, Henry out-snapped Justice Hill in Week 3, earning 36 snaps to Hill's 24 as the Ravens held a 28-6 lead entering the fourth quarter. Henry finished with 151 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries while he also caught one pass for 23 yards.

That wasn't the case in previous weeks when Baltimore was playing from behind as Hill logged 38 snaps to Henry's 36 in the Week 1 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill proceeded to follow that up by tallying 35 snaps in Week 2 -- compared to Henry getting 29 snaps -- as the Ravens were playing from behind against the Las Vegas Raiders late in the contest.

The good news is that Henry is still the RB4 in half-PPR leagues, and he's more valuable in games where the Ravens are favored or can secure a lead. Baltimore is currently slight favorites over the undefeated Buffalo Bills at home in Week 4, so this may be another week where Henry sees more snaps than Hill.

There Isn't a Defense That is Struggling Against WRs More Than the Rams

The only team to allow three 100-yard receivers through the first three weeks of the season is the Los Angeles Rams.

Despite adding Tre'Davious White and Kamren Curl to their secondary in the offseason, the Rams are woeful when the ball is put in the air. Against the pass, Los Angeles is ranked 30th in deep yards per target (14.7), 28th in completion percentage over expected (0.05%), 30th in success rate (54.7%), and 31st in expected points added per drop back (0.35).

When looking at their metrics against WRs, the Rams are permitting the fifth-most receiving yards (541), fifth-most receiving touchdowns (6), second-highest target rate (24.6%), and most yards per route run (2.56) to the position. After Jauan Jennings exploded for 11 receptions, 175 yards, and 3 scores versus LA in Week 3, the Rams have now given up 120-plus receiving yards and at least one score to a WR in three consecutive games.

With Los Angeles surrendering plenty of big plays through the air, they are a perfect team to target with WRs and TEs each week in season-long and DFS formats. The next team scheduled to face the Rams is the Chicago Bears, which should put Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet on our radars in Week 4 (and Keenan Allen if he plays).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.