Fantasy Football Usage Report for Week 4

The further we get into a season, the easier it is to identify flukes.

For example, Rachaad White had 106 yards from scrimmage in the opener, which could have been a good omen for the season. But he's at just 58 total since then, and now Bucky Irving has earned a bigger role. That Week 1 showing is likely to look like an outlier by the end of the year.

This also means the non-flukes are easier to spot. And that could be a concern for guys like Travis Kelce who have gotten off to slow starts.

Let's sift through the usage data thus far and try to pinpoint flukes, see whose slow starts may be more concerning than others', and discuss what it all means for their fantasy football outlook.

All snap-rate, route, and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target 16-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Fantasy Football Running Back Usage

Below, you can find the usage for each viable fantasy running back in their respective most relevant samples. Some players -- like Zach Charbonnet -- have multiple splits in the event that the injury status of a teammate for Week 4 is unknown. The sample being referenced is noted in the far right-hand column of the table.

Here, an "Adj. Opp." is an adjusted opportunity, which is carries plus two-times the player's target total as targets are worth twice as much as carries in half-PPR formats. RZ share is the player's percentage of the team's carries or targets inside the 20-yard line in their most relevant sample.

The players are sorted by their FanDuel salary on the Week 4 main slate. Those who aren't on the main slate are listed at the bottom of the chart.

• Breece Hall has lost some touches to Braelon Allen, but his workload is still elite. He has 30 and 26 adjusted opportunities the past two weeks, and he has averaged 98.5 yards from scrimmage. There are some slight red-zone concerns, but overall, the outlook for Hall is still very optimistic.
• Brian Robinson's sample above is all three games, but Austin Ekeler's status is in doubt for Week 4 after he left Monday night with a concussion. Robinson played 75.4% of the snaps there and has a cushy matchup this week, giving him big upside if Ekeler can't go.
• Zack Moss played 76.7% of the snaps Monday, his second straight game at that mark or higher. He finally was productive, too, with 97 yards from scrimmage. Chase Brown showed burst, meaning Moss' role isn't a lock to remain where it's at, but for now, Moss is clearly the lead back.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver and Tight End Usage

Travis Kelce

Let's tackle the Kelce discussion now because through three games, it ain't pretty.

The positive is that Kelce is still second on the Kansas City Chiefs in targets. The negative is that he's 20 percentage points behind Rashee Rice. Here's their target distribution thus far.

Patrick Mahomes' completion percentage over expected (CPOE) when targeting Rice is +3.4%; it's -10.6% to Kelce and -11.7% when targeting Xavier Worthy. There's a reason Rice is being featured.

Obviously, we shouldn't expect these numbers to stick. Defenses will adjust and allocate more resources to stopping Rice, which will free up space for Kelce. But you bet your bottom we should be concerned.

In season-long, you're still using Kelce because, frankly, where are you finding a replacement who hasn't also struggled? He's not a buy-low, though, where you should target him in trades, and if someone gives you a fair offer, it's not off-base to consider it.

For DFS, Kelce's salary is still $7,100 in Week 4. He gets to play indoors against a team he has shredded in the past, but that salary is too high, making Kelce nothing more than a pivot for tournaments.

Terry McLaurin

We all saw the coming out party for Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin on Monday night. Not surprisingly, McLaurin's season-long market shares are starting to look a lot rosier.

McLaurin's overall workload is fine. What's reassuring is that when Daniels goes deep, he's looking McLaurin's direction.

That's just two deep targets per game, but if passing volume increases, McLaurin could really start to skyrocket.

The talent has always been there for McLaurin. Now it seems like he has a quarterback who can launch pinpoint darts downfield. The median outcome will still be underwhelming in a run-heavy offense, but McLaurin has a path to a ceiling. That's worth something in both DFS and season-long.

The Seahawks' WRs

Geno Smith is playing well this year, so I'd like to buy into the Seattle Seahawks' offense. They're just making that difficult with inconsistent usages.

In outlining Week 2's key fantasy takeaways, I gushed over all the downfield work Jaxon Smith-Njigba got in that game. It gave his upside a much-needed boost.

Then he promptly got 3 targets on a 4.5-yard aDOT in Week 3. Womp.

The best path here is likely looking at the team's usage across the entire season thus far. Here's what that looks like.

Three games in, it does look like a pretty clear hierarchy where D.K. Metcalf is the top guy, JSN is a tier below, and then there's another step down to Tyler Lockett.

We'll have to keep tabs on this still to make sure Week 2 doesn't wind up being the outlier for JSN. That's a possibility for sure. I'm still willing to tentatively bump him up from preseason expectations, though, because at least we know he can get the kind of usage we want.

The Jaguars' Pass-Catchers

As a passing offense, in order to support fantasy-viable players, you gotta be one of two things:

• Efficient
• Concentrated

The Jacksonville Jaguars are neither right now.

Even in two games without Evan Engram, nobody has a target share above 20%. In order to expand the sample, here's the target distribution across all three games.

All three of Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, and Gabriel Davis are best-suited for season-long benches when possible.

Thomas has the highest upside of the bunch. He has multiple deep targets in both games without Engram, and there's the potential to improve as he gets more acclimated to the NFL. He's worth holding for sure. We just need something -- either usage or efficiency -- to budge before we actually use a starting slot on these guys.

Red-Zone Usage

• Kyren Williams' three touchdowns Sunday were far from fluky. He has 64.9% of the team's red-zone usage through 3 games. They might not get there super often with so many contributors banged up, but at least we know Williams is getting the rock when they do.
• Aaron Jones has been great overall this year, and his usage seems to spike in the red zone. He has 48.3% of the Minnesota Vikings' carries or targets there, and his snap rate increases to 67.7% from 56.0% when they're outside the red zone. Combined with his good yardage numbers, Jones has two paths to upside right now.
• Drake London's overall role is flawed with Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud getting more work than expected, but London's the go-to guy in close. He has 6 of 13 targets (46.2%) thus far, which will help keep him somewhat afloat if his yardage remains muted.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.