3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/12/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Senators Moneyline (+106)
Since joining the league over 30 years ago, the Ottawa Senators have resided in the Toronto Maple Leafs’ shadow. But after years of cultivating and developing young talent, the Sens are finally on the verge of stepping into the spotlight.
Ottawa has quietly asserted itself as one of the top analytics teams in the NHL. The Sens have compiled a top-ten expected goals-for rating and elevated their standing with their most recent efforts. The former expansion franchise has outplayed their opponents in six straight, usually by a convincing margin. Across their most recent schedule, the Senators have put together a 60.3% expected goals-for rating, bumping their season-long average to 52.2%. Still, they’re operating six points below expected, implying the Sens are immediate progression candidates.
Conversely, the Maple Leafs are trending in the opposite direction. Winners in three of their past four, the Leafs’ metrics don’t match their outcomes. Toronto has been outplayed in two of those contests, resulting in a 47.5% expected goals-for rating. In doing so, they’ve created an imbalance between expected and actual metrics, implying the Leafs are regression candidates moving forward.
Heading into Tuesday’s Battle of Ontario, Toronto has a 59.6% actual goals-for rating, putting the Leafs seven points above expected. That house of cards could come crashing down against a feisty Senators squad.
New Jersey Devils vs. Florida Panthers
Panthers Moneyline (-137)
The New Jersey Devils are trying to assert themselves as a perennial powerhouse, but their young roster continues to experience growing pains. While the Devils have five wins over their past seven games, they should be outmatched by the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers on Tuesday night.
With sustained analytics success, Florida has insulated itself from any potential Stanley Cup hangover. The Panthers have put together the eighth-best expected goals-for rating on the season and have reinforced their position with solid defensive zone play. Over the previous five games, they’ve held their opponents to an average of 8.2 high-danger chances per game. As expected, that has lightened the load on their goaltenders, who have given up 15 goals across the five-game sample, with nine coming at five-on-five.
That defensive structure will be the Devils undoing in Sunrise, Florida. New Jersey’s scoring game came to a halt in Sunday’s 1-0 loss to the San Jose Sharks. However, that regression should have been anticipated. The Devils have failed to create meaningful chances lately, falling below nine high-danger chances in four of their past five. Despite the limited production, New Jersey had recorded 12 goals over its previous three contests.
They may not be shut out again, but we anticipate short-term scoring difficulties for the Devils. That leaves an edge in backing the Panthers as they use their stifling defensive systems to contain the Devils.
Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
Over 6.5 (+108)
The Calgary Flames pumped the breaks on a mini-skid on Monday night. With just one win over their previous four contests, the Flames bested the Los Angeles Kings 3-1. They’re carrying that momentum into tonight’s Pacific Division showdown against the Vancouver Canucks.
Calgary’s young roster has vastly exceeded preseason expectations, and ongoing scoring success is anticipated against the Canucks. Vancouver is trying to get by without primary netminder Thatcher Demko, but neither of their goalies has been up to the challenge lately. Since October 26th, Canucks’ goaltenders have combined for a .859 save percentage at five-on-five, improving modestly to .863 across all strengths.
But Vancouver’s scoring nucleus has offset some of those issues. Across the same seven-game sample, the Canucks have scored on 11.6% of their shots. Most of that damage has come at five-on-five, with the reigning Pacific Division champs posting an 11.8% shooting percentage, accounting for 18 of their 25 goals.
Neither team has an off-switch on offense right now, and both have struggled to get consistent play from their netminders. On that basis, we see an advantage in backing this tilt to go over the total.
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