4 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Dodgers at Mets, Game 3

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, let's see what MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a promo for all customers betting on Game 3 of the NLCS happening October 16th!

How to Claim This Promo

You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button. You’ll then be rewarded a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on any wager placed on Game 3 of the NLCS happening October 16th, 2024. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Dodgers at Mets

Mets Moneyline (-102)

The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers split a pair of games at Dodger Stadium, and the NLCS turns to Citi Field tonight.

Who will take the series lead this evening?

I've got my eye on the Mets, and I'm pleased to get the home team's moneyline at -102 odds.

Walker Buehler will take the bump for the Dodgers, which could be synonymous with the Mets getting out to an early lead. Buehler posted a 5.38 ERA, 4.68 xERA, 4.49 xFIP, 4.54 SIERA, and 18.6% K% this season. He started Game 3 of the NLDS, and his performance led to an outburst in the dugout. In that one, Buehler coughed up seven hits, six earned runs, and one home run through five frames and failed to log any Ks.

I'm not holding out much hope that Buehler can turn it around tonight. He hasn't had his stuff since returning from the injured list in mid-August, posting a 4.67 xFIP, 4.79 SIERA, 1.59 WHIP, 18.8% K%, and allowing 1.41 home runs per nine innings in that timeframe. Past Buehler, the Dodgers' bullpen has struggled with a 4.70 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA, and 1.31 HR/9 this postseason. The Mets' offense gets a bump at home, and I'm expecting them to take advantage of LA's meh arms.

Luis Severino will get the start for the Mets. While that doesn't instill me with the most confidence, Severino's pretty good at limiting damage and has been superior on his home turf.

This season, Severino generated a 3.91 ERA, 3.88 xERA, 4.12 xFIP, 4.22 SIERA, and 21.2% K%. We love to see that his xERA is a bit down from his ERA. At home, he managed a 2.96 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He ceded just a .291 wOBA and 0.83 homers per nine at Citi Field but allowed a .325 wOBA and 1.49 homers per nine on the road.

Through two postseason starts, Severino has totaled a combined six runs allowed and 10 strikeouts in 12 frames. I think we'll see a pretty high-scoring contest, one that ultimately favors the Mets, so that's the side I'll roll with for Game 3.

Over 7.5 Runs (-104)

The over might be my favorite way to bet Game 3. This postseason, Mets games are averaging a total of 8.9 runs and have gone over 7.5 runs in seven out of nine contests. Dodger playoff games are averaging 9.1 runs and have exceeded 7.5 runs in six out of seven contests.

Both of these teams are led by their offense and have been packing on the runs this postseason. With Buehler and Severino set to take the mound, we should see more of the same tonight.

We've touched on the concerns with Buehler, and he lets up a massive 1.91 home runs per nine innings. While Severino could keep it together a little more than Buehler, he allows a meaty 1.61 home runs per nine to lefties, and the Dodgers' lineup can be unrelenting. Chilly weather conditions won't create the best hitting environment, but that's being factored into this total. I still like these teams to combine for over 7.5 runs.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Mark Vientos to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Mark Vientos is a chalky home run pick, but the hype has been earned and he's in for a great matchup tonight.

Through 39 plate appearances in the postseason, Vientos has generated a .378 BA, .297 ISO, .676 SLG, and 203 wRC+. He's gone deep three times in these playoffs.

Vientos has managed a .251 ISO, 127 wRC+, and 34.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Buehler, meanwhile, has let up a .360 wOBA, 35.0% fly-ball rate, and 1.89 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters.

Vientos has been batting second for the Mets this postseason, an advantageous spot for this market. You can parlay New York's moneyline and Vientos to go long and get +600 odds.

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Keeping in line with our anti-Buehler sentiment, let's look for one more right-handed Met to round the bases.

Pete Alonso is sporting a .410 wOBA, 169 wRC+, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and a massive .345 ISO during the playoffs. Similar to Vientos, that's resulted in three postseason home runs.

We've already touched on Buehler's poor splits opposite righties, and Alonso generated a .215 ISO, 120 wRC+, and 41.2% fly-ball rate versus northpaws this season. He also shined with a .244 ISO at Citi Field in comparison to a .196 ISO on the road in 2024. You can parlay New York's moneyline with an Alonso homer and get +600 odds.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in AZ, CO, CT, D.C., IA, IL, IN, KS (in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino), KY, LA (permitted parishes only), MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Opt in req. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT) or visit FanDuel.com/RG