3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 8/22/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Over 8.0 (-105)

It will be a solid pitching matchup when the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves square off on Thursday. Cristopher Sanchez is slated to make his 25th start of the year for the Phillies while Spencer Schwellenbach will be starting for the 14th time for the Braves.

Even though Sanchez and Schwellenbach have been solid this season, the over is a bit enticing in this NL East showdown. Before Sanchez pitched a complete game in his last start versus the Washington Nationals, he surrendered six-plus earned runs in two of his previous three starts, and Schwellenbach has given up three-plus earned runs in three of his last five outings.

Additionally, the Braves boast the fifth-best wOBA (.343), eighth-best wRC+ (120), and second-best ISO (.213) against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Despite Atlanta also having the highest strikeout rate (31.6%) in the split during that span, Sanchez has just an 18.6% strikeout rate on the season.

While the Phillies have struggled to the tune of the 9th-worst wOBA (.294), 8th-worst wRC+ (87), and 12th-worst ISO (.153) against righties in the last month, it's only a matter of time before a lineup that features Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper figures things out versus that handedness.

Being that Philly has -146 odds to achieve four-plus runs and Atlanta has -140 odds to do the same, there is value in taking the over in this contest.

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros Over 3.5 Total Runs (-113)

Corbin Burnes is expected to be on the bump for the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, and he's logged a formidable 3.74 SIERA ansd 3.55 xFIP through 25 starts in 2024. That being said, Burnes has allowed three-plus earned runs in each of his last three starts, and the Houston Astros are heating up at the plate recently.

During his previous outing against the Boston Red Sox -- which was also at home -- Burnes permitted three barreled balls and eight hard hits while giving up two homers. In the last month of baseball, the Astros have the 9th-best wOBA (.330), 9th-best wRC+ (116), and 13th-best ISO (.176) versus right-handed pitchers.

The good news for the Astros is that Alex Bregman returned to the lineup on Wednesday following a short absence, and he delivered his fifth home run in his last six contests. Meanwhile, Burnes has reverse splits with a .287 wOBA and 1.17 HR/9 allowed to righties, compared to a .266 wOBA and 0.91 HR/9 to lefties.

Along with Burnes' recent struggles, Baltimore's bullpen has registered the sixth-highest flyball rate (42.2%), ninth-highest hard contact rate (32.7%), and second-worst HR/9 (1.7) in the last 30 days. Lastly, the Astros have tallied four-plus runs in 10 of their last 14 games, and they've won 8 consecutive road contests.

New York Mets at San Diego Padres

First 5 Innings Result: San Diego Padres (-114)

When the San Diego Padres host the New York Mets on Thursday, they'll have a massive pitching advantage with Dylan Cease making his 27th start of the campaign. As for the Mets, Luis Severino is projected to get the nod for the 25th time this season.

At the moment, Cease has the 7th-best SIERA (3.24) and 10th-best xFIP (3.26) in baseball while ranking in the 78th percentile in xERA (3.29), 88th percentile in xBA (.206), and 93rd percentile in strikeout rate (31.5%). Despite the Mets posting the 13th-lowest strikeout rate (21.9%) against right-handed pitching this year, they've produced the 5th-highest strikeout rate (24.9%) in that split over the last month of action, which opens the door for a Cease masterclass at home.

Along with Cease notching a 3.02 xFIP and 33.1% strikeout rate at home compared to a 3.45 xFIP and 30.2% strikeout rate on the road, the Padres are sporting the fifth-best wOBA (.348), fourth-best wRC+ (128), and lowest strikeout rate (15.9%) in the last 30 days when facing righties. Those numbers should come in handy against Severino, who has allowed four-plus earned runs in three of his last four outings -- with the lone start he didn't give up four-plus earned runs being a matchup against the 46-win Miami Marlins.

Cease has been credited with a win in five of his last seven outings, and San Diego has secured a lead in the first five innings in all five of those victories. The same can't be said for Severino as he's gotten just one win his last five starts while failing to pitch more than five innings in four of his last five.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.