2 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football: Bills at Dolphins

Following a sizable clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs a week ago, we get another must-see matchup for Thursday Night Football. Week 2 features a divisional rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Four of the last five head-to-head matchups have been decided by one score, but Buffalo has had its way with four consecutive wins. We are getting some stakes early in the season, and this will likely impact odds to win the AFC East as the two are tied for the shortest odds at +180.

In Week 1, the Bills were shaky against the Arizona Cardinals but ultimately won a shootout 34-28. The Dolphins also took care of business, winning 20-17 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Neither team was able to cover the spread a week ago as favorites. Buffalo's defense underperformed while Miami's offense disappointed. What can we expect for Thursday's matchup?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Bills at Dolphins

Bills Moneyline (+120)

Before we get too deep into our favorite lines, let's quickly go over the injury report. The Bills' defense will be short-handed as nickel corner Taron Johnson will be absent with a forearm injury, and the defensive line will lack depth as Dawuane Smoot is out due to a toe injury. Plus, lead linebacker Matt Milano suffered a biceps injury in the offseason and could miss the entire 2024 campaign.

The report is just as troublesome for the Fins. Raheem Mostert is out (chest), and De'Von Achane (ankle) is a game-time decision. Bradley Chubb (ACL) and Odell Beckham (undisclosed offseason procedure) continue to recover from injuries, as well.

That's a lengthy injury report for Week 2. Perhaps the most notable area here is Miami's run game. There's a shot that the Dolphins' top two running backs will be missing, leaving the run game to Jeff Wilson and Jaylen Wright. Wilson recorded -0.69 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) in limited time last season, via NFL's Next Gen Stats, and Wright has yet to take a carry in his rookie season.

This leads us to the first line to back: the Bills moneyline. Buffalo is the underdog on the road, making it a bold take. However, the head-to-head dominance alone gives me confidence. The Bills are riding a 4-game winning streak in this matchup and have won 9 of the last 10.

We can't completely overlook Buffalo's narrow win in Week 1, although the Cardinals are expected to improve this season. In fact, Arizona carries numberFire's 16th-best schedule-adjusted offense following Week 1. That's pretty much right in line with the Dolphins ranking 15th in the category.

The Bills' run defense gave up 124 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt in their season-opening win. This could be less of a worry if Miami is missing two backs. Plus, Buffalo's pass defense was solid, giving up 146 passing yards and 4.2 yards per passing attempt.

We should expect plenty of passing attempts from the Dolphins as they recorded 37.0 in Week 1 (sixth-most). Buffalo finished with the 12th-highest pass rush grade last week, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), after recording four sacks. Miami gave up three sacks and eight tackles for loss in the season-opening weekend, so Tua Tagovailoa could be consistently under pressure.

Moving to the other side of the ball, the Bills had the third-most rushing attempts per game last season and logged 33.0 carries in Week 1 (tied for the seventh-most). The Dolphins currently have the second-worst schedule-adjusted run defense, per numberFire. The Jags recorded 4.9 yards per carry and were a team that tied for the fewest yards per rushing attempt a season ago (3.6).

Buffalo has a good shot of dominating the ground game, which certainly makes playing on the road less challenging. Tagovailoa also logged -0.23 and -0.02 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) in head-to-head matchups in 2023. Success in the run game paired with enough from the defense is pointing to an upset win for the Bills.

Over 48.5 Points (-115)

Over the past four head-to-head clashes, the two teams have combined for at least 61 points on three occasions. This game carries the third-highest total of the week. Is the over still a good bet?

As previously mentioned, the Bills have a favorable matchup on the ground. Buffalo's defense was pretty mediocre last week, holding the 16th-worst schedule-adjusted unit. If Miami leans on the pass due to injuries in the backfield, this could lead to a quicker tempo, as well.

Taking the over boils down to some simple reasons. We've seen consistent high-scoring games between the rivals. Each squad was among the top six in points per game (PPG) in 2023. And finally, both teams are in the top half of schedule-adjusted offense following Week 1.

The Bills have mostly had their way with the Dolphins in high-scoring affairs. This is exactly what I'm banking on for Thursday night's contest.

Each offense is still loaded with talent. We have Josh Allen holding the second-shortest odds to win the MVP award (+550) while Tua is throwing to one of the NFL's best one-two receiver punches in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill also has the shortest odds to win Offensive Player of the Year (+500). Both teams should be toward the top of offensive rankings once again, and each defense is looking somewhat susceptible for this primetime clash.

Along with Buffalo pulling off the win, give me the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.