3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Tuesday 9/17/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jesus Sanchez to Hit a Home Run (+560)

loanDepot Park isn't a great venue for home runs, but this matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins is showing the highest over/under (9.5) of the day outside of Coors Field. That's due to a matchup between struggling pitchers Bobby Miller and Darren McCaughan, both of whom have had a difficult time keeping the ball in the park.

While the conventional move is to attack McCaughan with the Dodgers, I don't mind also taking a shot on a Marlins player knocking one out.

Over 12 starts, LA's Miller has some truly worrisome numbers. He's posted a 7.06 xERA and is in the first or second percentile in all of xERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. Incredibly, he's coughed up at least one home run in each of his last 11 outings, and since being called back up from Triple-A in August, he's given up two or more dingers in four of five starts.

Although his home run problems have persisted on both sides of the plate, he's been particularly weak versus lefties, allowing 3.2 HR/9 off a 46.1% fly-ball rate.

Lefty slugger Jesus Sanchez hasn't homered in September, but 15 of his 17 home runs have come against righties this year, and these odds are enticing against such a vulnerable pitcher. And it's not like Sanchez doesn't have possess the pop to get the job done, as he comes in with a 95th percentile hard-hit rate, 94th percentile average exit velocity, 87th percentile xSLG, and 81st percentile barrel rate.

We should see some fireworks in this matchup, and Sanchez is someone who could definitely get in on the fun.

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+440)

We have another game at Coors tonight, and as luck would have it, we should also see roughly 10 mph winds blowing out to center, as well. Add in a matchup against mediocre right-hander Ryan Feltner, and this looks like a prime spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks to launch a dinger or two.

Feltner's splits suggest that attacking him with a left-handed batter is the way to go. When facing lefties this season, the 28-year-old has a 4.43 xFIP and 19.4% strikeout rate while allowing 1.2 HR/9 off a 38.5% fly-ball rate.

The matchup gets even more enticing when we narrow things down to his Coors splits versus lefties. In that sample (145 batters faced), his K rate plummets to 15.9%, and his HR/9 jumps to 1.7.

In surveying the potential lefties we can back in the D-back's lineup, Corbin Carroll's odds stand out as a potential value as just the ninth-shortest home run odds between the two teams.

Although Carroll hasn't homered yet this month, 17 of his 19 dingers have come since the beginning of July, and over that stretch, he's produced a .310 ISO, 42.9% fly-ball rate, 44.6% hard-hit rate, and 9.8% barrel rate.

With both the venue and pitching matchup lending an assist, this looks like an ideal spot for Carroll to get back on the board in the home run department, and it doesn't feel like we're paying a premium at these odds.

Taylor Ward to Hit a Home Run (+370)

The Chicago White Sox have inexplicably won three games in a row, and the Los Angeles Angels will look to break this massive win streak tonight.

The White Sox will have Davis Martin on the mound, and the 27-year-old righty has been more or less a league-average arm across eight starts (nine appearances) with a 4.25 SIERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate.

But his splits in same-handed matchups suggest he's more vulnerable to home runs against right-handed batters. Although Martin boasts a 56.5% ground-ball rate versus lefties, that dips to just 35.3% against righties. It's likely one of the primary reasons he's given up just 0.76 HR/9 to lefties compared to 1.53 to righties.

The Angels aren't exactly a team brimming with power, but leadoff man Taylor Ward has been a bright spot. The righty has slugged 24 bombs in 2024 while sitting in the 90th percentile in barrel rate and in the 85th percentile in xSLG. Additionally, 21 of those dingers have come facing right-handed pitching.

As one might expect from the lowly White Sox, Chicago's bullpen owns the third-worst xFIP (4.42) among active rosters, too, so Ward could still come through in the later innings if he's unable to connect against Martin.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.