Fantasy Football Usage Report for Week 3

Relevant samples in the NFL are a constantly moving target.

As key players get banged up, other players move into bigger roles. Thus, if we're trying to project forward, it's important to focus most on the sample that features the team in its current state. This forces us to rely on smaller samples in an already short season, but it's a necessary practice.

And it's getting a workout with so many players already banged up.

Here, we're going to try to dig into that relevant data and identify who's benefitting in fantasy football. That way, we can have a better grasp on expectations for who will get usage until the missing pieces return.

All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target 16-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Fantasy Football Running Back Usage

Each week, we're going to lay out key data on running backs so we know how to handle them in fantasy.

This week is the first where we have to tweak to account for each player's most relevant sample. The table below lists the workload of various backs in that most relevant sample, which may not be all two games thus far if they or a teammate missed time.

The far right-hand column identifies whether a player's data is from the full season or a reduced sample in order to account for fluctuating roles.

Here, an "Adjusted Opportunity" is carries plus two-times the player's target total as targets are worth twice as much as carries in half-PPR formats. "RZ Usage" is the percentage of the team's red-zone carries or targets that have gone to that player. And the "FD Salary" is that player's salary if they are on the Week 3 FanDuel main slate. Players not on the main slate are included at the bottom of the table.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans were omitted due to injuries to their starters, leaving no relevant samples to look at. Both De'Von Achane and Zach Charbonnet have multiple splits on the sheet, representing their usage with and without Raheem Mostert and Kenneth Walker III, respectively.

• Alvin Kamara's workload is as good as the production. He has 110-plus yards from scrimmage in each game plus 47.6% of the red-zone chances so far. He's an elite season-long play, and we can go right back to him in DFS this week against the Philadelphia Eagles.

• J.K. Dobbins has had great production so far, but there are still some flaws in his profile. He has just four targets and a 15.4% red-zone share. Those numbers could improve if he keeps producing, but we should try to keep realistic expectations in a tougher Week 3 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• Tony Pollard's usage looks good even before we account for a potential Tyjae Spears injury. He has 98.0 yards from scrimmage per game with a 45.5% red-zone share entering a matchup with a leaky Green Bay Packers rush defense.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver and Tight End Usage

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown missed Monday night's game and reportedly may miss more. The first game without him -- not surprisingly -- involved a lot of DeVonta Smith.

Here's the Eagles' target distribution across 29 targeted throws.

Smith finished with 7 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown but had the upside for more. He's a borderline target hog until Brown returns.

I was a bit surprised by Dallas Goedert's lack of involvement. He had gotten an uptick in volume in the past when either Brown or Smith missed time, but that didn't happen here. I'd still bump him up from baseline expectations, but the bump is smaller than anticipated.

As for Britain Covey, it was basically a bunch of screens, as evidenced by his 1.7-yard aDOT. He's a desperation season-long play and not on the DFS radar.

Atlanta Falcons

Now that we're two games into the Kirk Cousins experience, we can put more weight on the data.

That data looks better for Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud than I'd have thought.

McCloud is the team's leading target-earner through two games with a 23.1% target share. Drake London and Bijan Robinson are right behind him, but so is Mooney.

It's time to worry about Kyle Pitts, even if we're not in full-on panic mode yet.

As for London, his talent should help him separate eventually. But he hasn't benefitted from Cousins' presence as much as I thought he would. I'm downgrading him from preseason expectations due to the viability of McCloud and Mooney, but I don't want to go too far in that adjustment until we see a bit more volume here.

Finally, Mooney has forced his way into fantasy viability simply by playing well. Because the Atlanta Falcons play indoors, deep balls can be more efficient, and Mooney's averaging 2.5 long balls per game. You won't want to get too high on him, but he's at least on the map for DFS and a season-long waiver add.

San Francisco 49ers

With news that Deebo Samuel will miss a few weeks with a calf injury, we have to reset expectations for the San Francisco 49ers' offense.

We should expect a whole lotta Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.

Samuel missed most of Week 6 last year and was inactive the following two games. In that three-game stretch, Aiyuk was a focal point.

Aiyuk ran a route on 88.7% of the drop backs last week, so his conditioning seems to be back after his holdout. He's an auto-start in season-long and among the best DFS plays on the Week 3 slate at $6,500.

Kittle was quiet in last year's Week 6 game, but he erupted for 78 and 149 yards the following two games. He also spiked last week for 76 yards and a touchdown despite missing time due to cramping. His salary is higher than Aiyuk's at $7,100, but he's still a great play there and arguably the TE1 for season-long this week.

As for Jauan Jennings, his target share in that stretch last year was low, but that was with Christian McCaffrey healthy, and Jordan Mason doesn't get as much work in the passing game. Jennings' ceiling isn't high, but he can be a fill-in season-long starter if injuries have you jammed up.

Houston Texans

With Mixon banged up, the Texans' backfield depth is extremely poor. This could encourage them to air it out a bit more, which would be a deviation for an offense that has been more run-heavy than you'd like despite C.J. Stroud's heroics.

With that in mind, here's what the Texans' target distribution looks like through two games with Stefon Diggs.

It's starting to look like Nico Collins might just be a bona fide dude.

Collins has gone over 100 yards in both games, something he has now done in seven games since the start of last year. And given how aesthetically pleasing his targets from Stroud have been, I think we can firmly view him as the team's top pass-catcher.

I bought into Tank Dell last week, and it blew up in my face. He had negative receiving yards.

But he did drop a long ball that hit him in the hands, and the team still gave him three rush attempts. Maybe this is stubbornness, but I am likely to continue trying to buy low on Dell, especially given the potential for the team to be a bit more throw-heavy if Mixon misses time.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a down season last year, Chris Godwin is fully back.

Volume has been muted for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' passing game with just 49 targeted throws in 2 games, but 32.7% of those have gone to Godwin.

That's still a good profile for Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan has seemingly been open on every route. But Godwin's surge is massive.

The Buccaneers face the Denver Broncos this week, meaning Evans may be flirting with shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain. We shouldn't be surprised if Godwin's strong start to the season continues.

Red-Zone Usage

James Cook

I had touched on James Cook's underwhelming red-zone usage in this piece last week.

He then went out and scored three touchdowns on Thursday night.

Whoopsidaisies.

Importantly, one of those touchdowns was a goal-line carry, the primary concern for him with Ray Davis on the roster. He also caught a 17-yard touchdown and popped a long one for paydirt.

Cook has shown immense talent when given chances, and the Buffalo Bills are fully okay pounding the rock. Even if his red-zone role won't be perfect, he showed Thursday it's good enough for the arrow to be up on him in a pretty healthy way.

Rhamondre Stevenson

The New England Patriots have leaned heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson overall this year, but his workload has been especially elite inside the red zone.

Of the Patriots' 23 red-zone plays, 13 have resulted in a carry or target for Stevenson. That's reassuring for a team that might not get there as often as others.

Stevenson has 31 adjusted opportunities in both games. The Patriots' defense is good enough where they should remain competitive in a decent chunk of their games. Arrow is up on Stevenson pretty much across the board from preseason expectations.

Jameson Williams

The big appeal of Jameson Williams is his home-run ability, but he's getting work in the red zone, too.

Williams has five red-zone targets through two games, tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the team lead. That's a 27.8% target share there to go with his 40.0% deep target share.

If this keeps up, Williams' breakout will be only further cemented. He's still a bargain at $6,300 on the Week 3 main slate and a quality starter in season-long.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.