FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Wednesday 9/11/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Save some salary for your pitcher tonight.

You could talk me into rostering the lowest-salaried pitcher on this slate, Zebby Matthews ($6,100), in his fantasy-friendly matchup against the Los Angeles Angels. But I'm not touching any of the other more modest-salaried pitchers on Wednesday's slate -- including Lance Lynn ($7,900), Joey Estes ($7,400), Bobby Miller ($7,000), and Jordan Wicks ($6,600) -- with a 10-foot pole.

Matthews is your guy if you want to ball out on offensive stacks and side with an arm who is likely to be rostered at a low rate. Otherwise, it's time to digest some of the high-salary pitchers who have high strikeout potential tonight.

My favorite of the bunch is Michael King ($10,000). King is averaging 35.25 FanDuel points (second-most on slate) and is coming off a 49-point outing. His 28.2% strikeout rate has allowed him to notch 50 or more FanDuel points in four starts this season. A date with the Seattle Mariners, a team that strikes out at a league-high 27.2% rate, could have King nearing his ceiling tonight. Our MLB DFS projections have him set for a slate-high 38.4 FanDuel points in this one, which makes him the second-best points-per-dollar value behind Matthews.

I'd hate to miss out on King in what is the most fruitful matchup of all, but Blake Snell ($9,600) and his 32.7% strikeout rate are hard to deny while Hunter Brown ($9,400) has topped 35 FanDuel points in five straight outings and will draw a matchup against the Oakland Athletics, the fourth-most strikeout-prone team in the majors.

Today's main slate features six pitchers who tout a 25.0% K% or higher, but just two of them (Brown and King) will draw matchups against offenses that rank in the top 5 for highest K%, and those two offenses also happen to rank in the bottom 12 of wOBA. Your DFS lineup will have to be built around the star pitching for today. I can rest easy rostering either King or Brown in their matchups.

Stacks to Target

• Houston Astros (4.75 implied total)
  • Joey Estes gives up a .224 ISO, 55.9% fly-ball rate, and 1.57 home runs per nine innings to left-handed batters. Kyle Tucker ($4,100) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,900) are elite plays today, especially since their salaries aren't disgustingly lavish despite the awesome matchup. Jeremy Pena ($3,000) is a viable third stacking option, although he's hardly saving you salary on a slate where salary will be tight.
• Baltimore Orioles (4.49)
  • Gunnar Henderson ($4,300) and Anthony Santander ($3,900) are both projected to be top-10 batters on today's slate, per our numbers. This makes total sense considering Nick Pivetta surrenders a 50.2% fly-ball rate and 1.48 home runs per nine innings to lefties. You'll have to pick your fighter between a Houston or Baltimore stack. In my eyes, Ryan O'Hearn ($2,900) is a more ideal third option than the aforementioned Pena.
• Chicago Cubs (4.08)
  • We've got to find a salary-saving offensive stack with legit potential if we're hoping to roster King. The Cubs might be our answer. Bobby Miller has been giving up dingers left and right in 2024. He's allowed 17 earned runs and 8 home runs across his last 20 2/3 innings pitched. Ian Happ ($3,200) is the main guy I want to build this stack around, and Michael Busch ($2,700) is a feasible value play.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.