3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Wednesday 9/11/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Kyle Tucker To Record An RBI (+120)

Kyle Tucker (shin) was reinstated from the IL last week and has been back with the Houston Astros for three games.

Through 63 total games this season, the left-handed Tucker sports a .348 ISO, .645 SLG, 201 wRC+, and a 53.6% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers. He's been sorely missed in the batter props market, and his 71.4% fly-ball rate across his last three games indicates he is ready to rake once again.

Luckily, Tucker will be in for an awesome matchup this evening opposite Joey Estes.

Estes not only provides Tucker with the platoon advantage, but he also serves as a launching pad for left-handed bats. This season, Estes has coughed up a .224 ISO, 1.57 home runs per nine innings, and a seismic 55.9% fly-ball rate to lefties. No eligible pitcher in MLB has given up a higher fly-ball rate in this split than Estes.

Tucker typically bats third for Houston, so I love his potential to notch an RBI via a sac fly or extra-base hit. Given the fly-ball rates in this matchup, I'm interested in Tucker's +285 home run odds, too.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

I'm wholeheartedly backing Gunnar Henderson as one of today's best home runs bets, but that won't stop me from checking out Nick Pivetta's strikeout prop versus the O's.

Pivetta rocks an astounding 29.1% strikeout rate (10th-best in MLB; minimum 120 IP) and punches out 10.73 batters per nine innings. He also comes in with stellar underlying numbers, including a 3.77 xERA, 3.52 xFIP, and 3.33 SIERA.

Henderson, in particular, may be in for a friendly matchup, but Pivetta is skilled enough to go long into this game, especially since the Wild Card-seeking Boston Red Sox will need all the help they can get down the stretch.

Boston's strikeout ace has exceeded 5.5 Ks in 14 out of 22 starts this season (63.6% of contests), including 8 of his last 10 outings.

The Baltimore Orioles strike out at a fine enough 21.2% rate versus northpaws and own a 22.3% K% on the road. Our projections concur that this is a good spot to back Pivetta. They forecast him to record 6.32 Ks in this one.

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

Rays Under 2.5 Runs (+100)

We're asking the Tampa Bay Rays to miss a very low bar here, but that's not out of the ordinary for their offense.

Zack Wheeler will be on the bump for the opposing Philadelphia Phillies. He enters the night with a 2.59 ERA (third-best in MLB), 2.92 xERA (third), 3.42 SIERA (ninth), and 27.7% K% (eighth). He also limits opponents to just 0.88 home runs per nine innings (11th-lowest in MLB). In short, he's a top-3 limiting pitcher in baseball.

The Rays, on the other hand, pose as one of the worst offenses in MLB. They average just 3.86 runs per game (third-lowest in MLB). Tampa Bay also stinks against righties. The team generates a .224 BA (29th), .356 SLG (29th), and .290 wOBA (29th) versus this handedness.

Wheeler and Philadelphia's bullpen have held opposing offenses to under 3.5 runs in seven straight games. Since April 25th, this group has held opponents to under 2.5 runs in 16 out of 23 games (69.5% of contests). Asking Tampa Bay to join this nearly 70% isn't a tall task, and we're being gifted +100 odds to do so.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.