3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 12/17/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
James Madison Dukes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
James Madison Over 63.5 Points (-112)
Tuesday features a matchup between James Madison and Wake Forest, and Bart Torvik suggests these teams are near even as the Dukes rank 115th in adjusted rankings while the Demon Deacons rank 98th.
JMU's biggest challenge will likely be putting the ball in the hoop as Wake Forest is 193rd in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 35th in adjusted defense. That's further proven by the Deacons giving up only 64.8 points per game (top 9% for defense) and a 45.5% effective field goal percentage (top 10%).
However, the Dukes are putting up 74.1 PPG (top 44%) paired with a 53.5 eFG% (top 24%). This is led by a fierce three-point attack, which attempts 27.8 shots per game (top 12%) along with a 48.1% shot distribution from deep (top 8%). Meanwhile, Wake gives up a 45.5% three-point shot distribution (bottom 12%) while surrendering 8.2 three-point makes per game (bottom 32%) and 26.3 three-point shots per contest (bottom 15%).
Adding to the Demon Deacons' worries, JMU has drained double-digits threes in five of its last six games, shooting 37.5% from deep during that span. For comparison, the Dukes shoot an efficient 36.8% from three-point land this season (top 20%). James Madison's recent mark of 37.5% would put it in the top 16% of college basketball.
Considering this three-point matchup, tonight's 63.5-point prop feels disrespectful to the Dukes. numberFire's college basketball projections has James Madison scoring 73.2 points. Give me the over for the road underdog.
No. 25 Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina Moneyline (+106)
One of tonight's most anticipated games is a rivalry between Clemson and South Carolina. The Gamecocks carry the home advantage in an intense clash, yet the Tigers are 2.5-point favorites. As Bart Torvik suggests, Clemson (33rd) is likely the superior team over South Carolina (63rd). However, we shouldn't overlook this road environment.
Bart Torvik's game projections have South Carolina winning by about one point, putting great value in this moneyline for the home underdog. Let's look at the numbers.
First off, these two teams have a similar style by playing through the post and relying on sound defense. Each squad sits in the top 31% for the slowest adjusted tempos in college basketball, as well. With each defense in the top 100 of points per game allowed and field goal makes allowed per contest, quality shots will be a huge deal tonight.
With that said, attacking the rim could hold more value than normal. This is a category I expect the Gamecocks to win. USC is in the top 37% for close twos shot distribution while the Tigers rank 106th in close twos shot distribution allowed. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina surrenders only a 32.4% shot distribution for close twos (top 12%), and Clemson is in the bottom 30% for close twos shot distribution.
Moneyline
Two of the Tigers' top three scorers are in the frontcourt: Ian Schieffelin (13.0 PPG) and Viktor Lahkin (12.1 PPG). The Gamecocks' interior defense is fortified by forward Collin Murray-Boyles, who boasts a 3.03 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) -- via EvanMiya.
Clemson also leans on second-chance points thanks to its 34.7% offensive rebounding percentage (top 8%), but South Carolina averages 25.5 defensive rebounds per game (top 13%). Taking away offensive rebounds from the Tigers should only erase even more looks around the rim.
With the ability to control the glass and painted area in a low-scoring, defensive game, I love the Gamecocks' chances of pulling off the upset tonight.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 7 Florida Gators
Florida Over 86.5 Points (-104)
Since November 22, Florida has been a buzz saw, covering five consecutive games with an average margin of +22.8 points. This hasn't been against just lesser competition either as the Gators beat Arizona State and Virginia by an average margin of +17.5 points over their last two.
Florida has its toughest matchup of the season in North Carolina, but the Tar Heels are 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) over their last five. UNC's defense is a big concern, ranked 49th in adjusted defense while the Gators are 6th in adjusted offense. UF logs 86.2 PPG (top 3%) and has surpassed 86 points in three of the last five.
The three-ball has been a major component of Florida's offense, for it shoots 28.8 attempts per game (top 8%) while making 9.7 per contest (top 11%). It's pretty much take your pick against this Tar Heels defense, which gives up 78.7 PPG (bottom 20%) and 66.7 field goal attempts per game (bottom 2%). Much of this has to do with UNC's sixth-quickest adjusted tempo in college basketball.
Florida Total Points
While the Gators' 86.5-point prop is high, this game should feature more than enough field goal attempts for the over to hit. Florida is also in the top 31% for the quickest tempos in the nation. Paired with UF's 65.1 shots per contest (top 2%), pace should not be a worry in this matchup.
Furthermore, opponents log 9.3 made threes (bottom 12% for defense) and 27.1 three-point attempts per game (bottom 9%) against the Tar Heels. Attempts across the board are up when facing North Carolina, but the Tar Heels giving up a 40.6% shot distribution from three (bottom 39%) shows this three-point defense is a legitimate concern.
UNC even commits 17.8 personal fouls per game (bottom 42%). This should keep feeding this Gators' offense -- which records 20.4 free throw attempts per contest (top 35%). Florida's guards Walter Clayton Jr. (19.1 PPG) and Alijah Martin (15.2 PPG) could flourish against the Heels' underwhelming defensive backcourt of RJ Davis (1.43 DBPR) and Seth Trimble (1.67 DBPR).
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.