Fantasy Football: 3 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 16

Even in the midst of the fantasy playoffs, the NFL is changing. And when we're dealing with such small sample of total games, it's important to stay on top of recent trends and act swiftly in accordance with recent changes.

That's as true for season-long fantasy football leagues as it is for DFS. That being said, let's dive into three trends to know heading into Week 16.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 16

Buffalo and Green Bay Are Sharing the Rock

The Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers finally had their full allotment of pass-catchers available in Week 15, and it was as big of a headache as you'd expect.

Let's start with Buffalo.

With Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back in the mix, Dawson Knox was the only Buffalo pass-catcher to crack a 70% snap rate or 60% route participation. Khalil Shakir and Kincaid tied for the team lead in target share (21.9%), but no other receiver saw north of a 10% target share.

We now have a three-game sample with all six of Buffalo's top pass-catchers active -- though one came in Amari Cooper's Bills debut. Here's how that's shaken out:

Based on this usage, Shakir, Coleman, and Kincaid appear to be the only trustworthy fantasy players in this passing attack. With Josh Allen playing at an MVP level, they're all players you should feel (relatively) safe starting the rest of the way.

It's not surprising to see Knox and Mack Hollins on the outside looking in, but Cooper's lack of utilization does stand out. He's not someone I'm starting except as a true dart throw.

Now, to Green Bay.

While it was nice to see Romeo Doubs return last week, his reinsertion into the lineup further muddied what was already a balanced offense -- one which has dipped to 29th in PROE (pass rate over expectation) since their Week 10 bye.

Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed all cracked a 70% route participation, relegating Dontayvion Wicks to an irrelevant 36% route rate. Watson, Reed, and Doubs all hovered between 19% and 23% target shares, but that resulted in only 5-6 targets apiece with Jordan Love attempting a mere 27 passes.

Here's how the Packers' receiving utilization has played out in nine games with their top five pass-catchers healthy:

From this, I find it difficult to trust any Packer receiver in my fantasy lineup going forward. Reed has been the most productive on a per-game basis, but much of his production in this split came in a 31.1-point outing in the season opener. He's otherwise finished as a top-30 wide receiver just once with the rest of his teammates healthy.

Doubs and Kraft are the two I'd feel most confident starting from this group from a floor perspective, though Watson's downfield work may give him more upside. Even so, it's impossible to think of any of their three wideouts as anything other than WR3 or flex considerations.

While the Bills and Packers aren't exactly the same, the way they've utilized their treasure chest of pass-catchers is similar. These are all going to be high-upside fantasy options based on the passing game around them, but there's going to be a degree of risk involved with most of these names on a week-to-week basis.

The Falcons Have Been Grounded

Sure, the Atlanta Falcons snapped a four-game skid with their win on Monday Night, but it's still hard to feel great about this offense for fantasy.

Despite featuring several fantasy-relevant names, Atlanta's offense stumbled mightily over the last six weeks. The team ranks just 27th in schedule-adjusted offense during this stretch, with the majority of their struggles coming through the air.

Since Week 10, the Falcons rank 28th in adjusted pass offense. Among quarterbacks with at least three games the last six weeks, Kirk Cousins is averaging the fifth-fewest passing fantasy points per game and has the second-lowest EPA per dropback.

That's impacted Atlanta's play calling, too. From Weeks 1-9, the Falcons ranked 22nd in PROE (-5.2%) and 13th in raw pass rate (57.9%). Since Week 10, Atlanta is dead-last in PROE (-12.3%) and 29th in raw pass rate (52.1%).

Such a dramatic downtick in passing volume is especially noteworthy considering the Falcons were 6-3 over their first nine games and now sit at 7-7. Despite playing in more negative game scripts than they were earlier in the season, Atlanta is throwing considerably less.

Their pass-catchers' fantasy stocks have taken a hit as a result. Drake London was the WR5 and averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game over the first nine games. Since Week 10, London down to WR30 and averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game.

Darnell Mooney was the WR12 (12.1 fantasy points per game) over the first nine weeks. He's the WR54 (7.3) since Week 10.

But no one's been hit harder by this recent stretch than Kyle Pitts. Pitts was the TE6 while averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-9. Since Week 10, he's totaled 15.6 fantasy points, ranking as the TE39.

Bijan Robinson has seen his fantasy value rise thanks to Atlanta leaning on the ground game, but the rest of this offense has really taken a step back. While you're likely still starting London the rest of the way given his alpha receiving role, there's clearly a cap on his upside right now. It's hard to trust Mooney even as a flex, and Pitts belongs closer to the waiver wire than your starting lineup.

The Jets Can't Stop Anyone

Entering the season, the New York Jets boasted PFF's top-ranked secondary. After giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and the fewest to wide receivers in 2023, New York looked like a defense we'd want to actively avoid playing fantasy players against this season.

For a while, that was true. Across the first five weeks of 2024, the Jets ranked third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass defense and were in the top five in fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.

Oh, how times have changed.

Since firing former head coach Robert Saleh following a 2-3 start, New York is dead-last in adjusted defense overall and 28th against the pass. They've given up the 2nd-most total fantasy points to quarterbacks and 11th-most fantasy points per target to wide receivers.

That's only become more of an issue as the season's gone on, with the Jets becoming a true pass funnel defense in recent games. Over the last four weeks, opposing offenses have the sixth-highest raw pass rate and third-highest PROE when facing New York. The Jets are in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and wide receivers during this stretch.

We just saw Mac Jones dice this defense up for 294 yards last week, becoming the fourth quarterback in the last five games to clear 20 fantasy points against them. I wouldn't expect much to change in the final stretch with New York sitting at 4-10 and already eliminated from playoff contention.

As such, New York's next three opponents (LAR, BUF, MIA) all warrant consideration in season-long and DFS formats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.