3 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for Tuesday 1/14/25

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Tuesday.

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Australian Open Tennis Second Round Betting Picks for Tuesday

Elise Mertens vs. Jessica Pegula

Under 20.5 Total Match Games (-120)

Jessica Pegula finished as the runner-up at the 2024 US Open and seems to have carried some of that momentum into the new year. She reached the final at Adelaide just before this event, and then she blew the doors off her first Australian Open opponent, defeating wildcard Maya Joint 6-3, 6-0 in just under an hour.

This will be a more difficult test against Elise Mertens, who actually has a 3-0 head-to-head record against Pegula. However, just one of those matches came in the past two seasons -- and it was on clay -- and Pegula has been the superior player on hard courts lately.

Per Tennis Abstract, Pegula has a 71.8% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, whereas Mertens is at just 54.5%. In terms of Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Pegula ranks 7th on hard courts while Mertens is 33rd.

Although Merterns opened her 2025 campaign with a successful run to the Hobart final, she didn't face anyone ranked inside the top 50 and ultimately fell to world No. 67 Mccartney Kessler.

Unlike Pegula, Merterns struggled through her first-round match, too, going three sets across two hours and 47 minutes to squeak by Viktorija Golubic -- a qualifier barely ranked inside the top 100.

Tennis Abstract projects a 69% win probability for Pegula, and Massey Ratings forecasts an even more bullish 82%. A straight-sets victory for the American seems like the most likely outcome, which should lead to this match going under 20.5 total games.

Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka

Karolina Muchova 2-0 Sets (-110)

The tennis gods haven't been kind to Naomi Osaka at these majors since she returned to the sport in 2024, as she continues to run into tough draw after tough draw.

She's been bounced in the second round at three straight Grand Slams, but those losses having come against Iga Swiatek, Emma Navarro, and Karolina Muchova. In those tournaments, Swiatek would go on to win the French Open, Navarro advanced to the Wimbledon quarterfinals, and Muchova was a US Open semifinalist. All three are presently ranked in the top 20, as well.

Well, as (bad) luck would have it, Osaka will have to face Muchova again in a second-round match.

Injuries have held back Muchova at times over her career, but she's worked her way up to world No. 20 since returning to the court last summer, and she's a frightening opponent when healthy. This is backed by her ranking seventh overall in Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings (sixth on hard courts), and with a strong tournament, it wouldn't be surprising to see her crack the top five.

In contrast, Osaka is just 27th overall and 24th on hard courts in Tennis Abstract's rankings.

In addition to reaching the US Open semis, Muchova has since been a finalist at the China Open and a semifinalist at the Ningbo Open. Including this year's United Cup, Muchova's only losses in full matches going back to the US Open have come versus opponents ranked inside the top six in Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff (twice), and Swiatek.

Osaka seemed to be making some headway with a run to the final in Auckland ahead of this Australian Open. However, she retired from the championship match due to an abdominal injury despite having a one-set lead, making it hard to believe she came into this event feeling 100%.

Naomi managed to win her first-round match versus Caroline Garcia over three sets, but Garcia last played a match in September, as she skipped last year's Asian swing for a mental/physical break. Muchova will be a significant step up in competition.

Osaka showed signs of her top form at Auckland, but the unfortunate timing of her retirement makes it unlikely that she'll be at her best tonight, and anything less than that won't be enough against Muchova. Karolina won their US Open match in straight sets, and we could see a similar result again.

Kei Nishikori vs. Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+142)

On paper, Tommy Paul should be able to get past the 35-year-old Kei Nishikori with relative ease, but Paul did himself no favors in the first round, surviving five sets against Christropher O'Connell in a grueling four-hour match. The American could be dealing with a shoulder issue, as well.

Luckily for Paul, Nishikori also endured a five-setter in his opening match, going over four hours himself to get past qualifier Thiago Monteiro.

It's still fair to assume the younger Paul (27 years old) has the better chance of recovering and outlasting his opponent. That's particularly the case against Nishikori, who's barely been able to stay on the court in recent years and returned from a lengthy layoff last spring. In fact, prior to this event, he last played at the Australian Open in 2021.

Paul remains a heavy favorite to win (-250), but the uncertainty of his fitness following the first round suggests that this could be another lengthy battle for both men. Scheduling is also coming into play here, as Nishikori will be coming off an extra day of rest, which could help even the playing field despite the age gap. It's also worth noting that Nishikori came into the tournament fresh off reaching a final at Hong Kong, so he's been in good form despite questions about his body holding up.

Tennis Abstract sees Paul winning this match 76% of the time, and Massey Ratings is in alignment at 77%, so we should feel pretty confident that he will advance. However, Nishikori should keep things competitive before ultimately running out of gas, so there could be value in backing Paul at plus money to win while dropping at least one set.

Looking for the latest tennis odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the tennis betting options and upcoming tournaments.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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