2 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for UC San Diego vs. Michigan

Similar to 6-11 matchups being popular upset picks, the 12/5 is usually the talk of the town. This year's edition of the men's college basketball tournament features a very strong group of 12 seeds, including UC San Diego, Colorado State, McNeese, and Liberty. Several of these teams are must-see TV, as we discussed in FanDuel Research's five players to watch in the men's college basketball tournament.

Among the bunch, UC San Diego is perceived to be the best 12 seed. That means trouble for the reigning Big Ten Tournament champions, Michigan.

To see thoughts on other games, check out our full men's college basketball tournament predictions page. But for UC San Diego vs. Michigan, here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds.

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Betting Picks for UC San Diego vs. Michigan

UC San Diego Moneyline (+118)

Similar to some of my favorite underdog picks, including VCU to the regional semifinals, UC San Diego is another team that feels underseeded. The Tritons are 36th in KenPom, and the next-best 12 seeds are 42nd and 59th in KenPom. That team ranked 42nd? Colorado State, which is favored over Memphis. Annie Nader of FanDuel Sportsbook circled UC San Diego and Colorado State as the most likely 12/5 upsets in the first round.

When looking at Michigan, averaging 14.1 turnovers per game (7th percentile) paired with a 17.1% turnovers per play rate (11th percentile) causes worries. The Wolverines couldn't have pulled a more concerning matchup in this department, for the Tritons dominate the area by averaging only 9.0 turnovers per game (99th percentile) and forcing 15.6 turnovers per contest (98th percentile).

UC San Diego's success usually relies on the turnover battle, meaning they couldn't ask for a better matchup. Additionally, the Tritons log 10.4 three-point makes (97th percentile) and 28.4 three-point attempts per contest (95th percentile), and Michigan gives up 24.4 three-point shots per game (22nd percentile) -- per Bart Torvik.

Defending will be important, as well, and UC San Diego is in the 82nd percentile for close twos and dunks shot distribution allowed. That should help slow the Wolverines' top players -- Vladislav Goldin (16.7 PPG) and Danny Wolf (13.1 PPG). Michigan is also in the 84th percentile of close twos and dunks shot distribution, proving the Tritons' exceptional interior defense should hold plenty of weight.

Under 142.5 Points (-118)

If UC San Diego is to pull off this upset, the under looks like the best pairing. This would play more to the Tritons' style as they're in the 75th percentile for the slowest adjusted tempos while Michigan is in the 82nd percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos.

Winning the possession battle led by forcing turnovers would certainly help UC San Diego's chances of controlling this pace. Additionally, the Tritons are in the 86th percentile of defensive rebounding percentage, helping limit the Wolverines' 31.2% offensive rebounding rate (77th percentile). According to defensive rebounding percentage, UC San Diego is actually the better team on the defensive glass (Michigan is in the 62nd percentile of defensive rebounding rate).

Game projections are also on the under as Bart Torvik is predicting a 139-point total while KenPom is forecasting 141 points. If UC San Diego pulls off this upset -- which we are predicting -- this is probably going to play at its pace; that means a slow-paced game that lives in the half court, pointing to the under.

Which bets stand out to you for today's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest men's college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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