Most Likely 12/5 Upsets in the First Round of the Men's College Basketball Tournament

March is upon us and the men's college basketball tournament tips off in a matter of days.

There are few better pastimes than calling your shot on a 12/5 upset.

Since the field expanded in 1985, 33 out of 39 tournaments have seen a 12 seed upset a 5 seed. Dating back to 2008, multiple 12 seeds have upset the 5 seed in more years (9) than not (7), including in 2024.

Which 12 seeds should you pick to advance this year?

Using FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and some help from KenPom, Bart Torvik, and EvanMiya, let's check out the best 12/5 upsets.

12/5 Upset Picks in the 2025 Men’s Tournament

Colorado State vs. Memphis

Here's something you don't see every year.

The 12 seed Colorado State Rams are favored by 2.5 points over the 5 seed Memphis Tigers in the first round.

The models are all in agreement, as EvanMiya (53.2%), KenPom (55.0%), and BartTorvik (63.0%) each give the Rams an edge for Friday's contest.

Thus, CSU over Memphis could technically be qualified as the most likely 12/5 upset based on the Rams' -128 moneyline odds (56.1% implied probability) at FanDuel.

Colorado State is riding a 10-game winning streak and won the Mountain West tournament with conviction, outscoring their three opponents by a total of 33 points. They are a top-46 team in both adjusted offense and defense while Memphis ranks just 88th and 47th in those categories, per BartTorvik.

Memphis' Tyrese Hunter sustained a foot injury in the AAC tournament that ultimately kept him out of the championship game. Hunter contributes 13.7 points (third-most) and 1.5 steals per game and shoots threes at a 40.1% clip. His status for this Friday is murky, further contributing to CSU's status as the odds-on favorite.

The caveat? You cannot bet Colorado State at underdog odds, and they could be a chalky pick in bracket pools as a result.

Memphis has gone 16-1 since late January, with the lone loss coming in overtime. They stomped on UAB in the AAC championship game even sans Hunter. Plus, they nabbed key victories over then-ranked opponents Clemson, Ole Miss, and UConn this season, making it hard to totally count them out.

While this is the most likely 12/5 upset, it's hardly unique.

UC San Diego vs. Michigan

UC San Diego Moneyline (+118)

Here's for a 12/5 matchup that has true upset potential.

The Michigan Wolverines are less than 24 hours removed from a Big Ten championship victory that included wins over Purdue (4 seed), Maryland (4 seed), and Wisconsin (3 seed) -- all of whom are a 4 seed or better in this year's men's tournament.

Head coach Dusty May is starting to look the part in his first season with the Wolverines, and seven-footers Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin serve as the team's leading scorers, making them a difficult group to guard.

It's hard to imagine UC San Diego finding an answer for Michigan's frontcourt. Wolf has put up 18-plus points and a double-double in three of his last four, and Goldin is averaging 20.8 points across his last seven.

With that said, the Tritons have the makeup of your typical 12/5 upset.

Seventeen of the last 20 (85.0%) 12 seeds to advance past the first game ranked inside the top 80 in adjusted defense (pre-tournament numbers on KenPom). UC San Diego heads into the tournament with a 30th-ranked adjusted defense.

That defense has let up the 20th-lowest shooting percentage on two-pointers across college hoops this season. The offense ranks 8th in three-point rate and 53rd in three-point percentage. These days, a perfect display of three-and-D basketball can take you far.

Riley Thomas considers UC San Diego's Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones one of the top players to watch in the men's college basketball tournament. He notes that Tait-Jones is tied for the seventh-most Game MVPs (15) on KenPom's Game MVP leaderboard -- the type of player who seems capable of taking over on this stage.

Add in that UC San Diego is forcing the highest turnover rate (23.3%) among all teams in the tournament -- Michigan averaged a whopping 14.1 turnovers per game this year -- and the Tritons seem equipped to pull off the sought after 12/5 upset.

You can also download our FREE college basketball printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.