4 Potential First Round Upsets in the 2025 Men’s College Basketball Tournament

The teams that will take part in the men's college basketball tournament this year have been announced, so brackets are being created at an alarming rate. One of the most common conundrums we face when creating brackets is deciding which upsets are going to take place in the tourney.

In the first round of the tournament, it's highly improbable that each lower-seeded team advances to the second round. So, which teams should be on upset alert before the road to the national championship officially begins on Thursday?

Let's take a look at my favorite upset picks in the first round of the tournament and discuss how often certain seeds upset their opponents.

Most Likely First-Round Upsets in the Men’s Tournament

No. 12 Colorado State Over No. 5 Memphis

Should it be considered an upset if the higher-seeded team is favored to win? By simply going along with what the selection committee seeded each program, the No. 12 Colorado State Rams taking down the No. 5 Memphis Tigers in the first round of the tourney classifies as an upset.

Entering the tournament, KenPom has Colorado State ranked 42nd and BartTorvik has them ranked 38th, compared to KenPom having Memphis at 51st and BartTorvik listing them at 60th. Upon diving into the metrics for both of these programs, it's easy to understand why the Rams are expected to be one of the next 12-seeds to defeat a 5-seed.

Colorado State cruised to a title in the MWC (Mountain West Conference) tournament by defeating both the Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos -- who are both ranked higher than Memphis in KenPom and BartTorvik's rankings -- by double digits in back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers emerged victorious in the AAC (American Athletic Conference) tourney, but they faced three teams (Wichita State, Tulane, and UAB) that are all sitting at 102nd or worse in KenPom and BartTorvik's rankings.

The Rams have the edge in multiple key areas, registering a 55.8% effective field-goal percentage, 77.5% free-throw percentage, and 74.7% defensive rebound rate (compared to the Tigers logging a 53.6% effective field-goal percentage, 70.2% free-throw percentage, and 67.7% defensive rebound rate). 12-seeds have beaten a 5-seed 35.3% of the time since the number of teams in the tournament was expanded to 64, making these matchups a popular choice for upsets.

No. 11 Drake Over No. 6 Missouri

The No. 6 Missouri Tigers aren't entering the tournament in the best form -- having lost five of their last seven games -- but they did play in an ultra-competitive SEC (Southeastern Conference) that has two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds in the tourney. Even though the Tigers are a talented offensive team that has been battle tested, they'll need to avoid overlooking the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs in the first round.

It'll be mentioned plenty of times that Drake head coach Ben McCollum had plenty of success at Division II Northwest Missouri State, and in his first year coaching the Bulldogs, he led them to a 30-3 record and a MVC (Missouri Valley Conference) tourney title. The Bulldogs want to beat teams by slowing games down (364th in adjusted tempo among 364 teams per KenPom and BartTorvik) and rebounding well with a 74.2% defensive rebound rate.

In addition to Drake's snail-like pace and ability to clean the glass, they have guard Bennett Stirtz leading the offense after finishing 19th in box plus-minus (+9.9), per BartTorvik. While the Tigers are fifth in adjusted offensive rating (125.3) and are posting a robust 83.6 points per game, the Bulldogs are 46th in adjusted defensive rating (98.5) and are giving up only 59.7 points per game.

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 11-seeds have defeated 6-seeds 39.1% of the time, which is the highest among matchups separated by five seeds or more. Among the teams that many will pinpoint as a potential cinderella in this year's college basketball national tournament, Drake figures to be a popular choice -- and for good reason.

No. 10 Utah State Over No. 7 UCLA

In their first year in the Big Ten, the No. 7 UCLA Bruins saw an early exit in the conference tournament, losing 86-70 to the Wisconsin Badgers. After the Bruins missed out on the Division 1 college basketball tourney a season ago following three straight years of advancing to the regional semifinals or further, they'll be focused on making a deep run in this year's competition.

UCLA is a well-balanced team, residing at 35th in adjusted offensive rating (116.8) and 17th in adjusted defensive rating (95.1), but the No. 10 Utah State Aggies are a stiff test in the first round. Utah State leans on their efficient shooting (56.0% effective field-goal percentage), second-chance opportunities (34.6% offensive rebound rate), and ability to take care of the basketball (13.8% offensive turnover rate).

Productive guard play typically leads to fruitful results this time of year, and the Aggies have two guards (Ian Martinez and Mason Falsley) who are notching 14.9-plus points per game. The duo of Martinez and Falsley has helped Utah State earn an impressive 61.1% assist rate and formidable 35.8% three-point percentage, with both players converting 37.9% or more of their shots from deep.

Over the years, 10-seeds have been crowned the victor over 7-seeds 38.7% of the time since 1985. If the Aggies are the most efficient offensive team and limit turnovers when they have the ball, they'll be in prime position to advance to the second round.

No. 14 Yale Over No. 3 Texas A&M

How often has a No. 14 seed lost to a No. 3 seed? Only 20 14-seeds have beaten 3-seeds since 1985, and one of those instances occurred last season with the Oakland Golden Grizzlies upsetting the Kentucky Wildcats.

Even with 14-seeds understandably not having a high win rate, the Yale Bulldogs draw a solid matchup versus the Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies are a pretty underwhelming team that relies too much on second-chance points (42.0% offensive rebound rate) and points off turnovers (20.4% of their points are off turnovers).

But what happens when Texas A&M runs into a program like Yale that doesn't allow many offensive boards (74.6% defensive rebound rate) and takes care of the ball (12.9% offensive turnover rate)? Additionally, the Bulldogs deploy an offense that records 81.4 points per game on a stellar 55.8% effective field-goal percentage and 40.1% three-point percentage.

Once again, guard plays tends to be rewarded in the tournament, and Yale has a senior duo (John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng) that can cause fits for any defense, accruing a combined 32.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game. Not to mention, the Bulldogs also have a junior forward in Nick Townsend that is producing 15.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 3.6 APG.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.