3 Cinderella Picks for Men's College Basketball Tournament Brackets

Cinderella runs is one of the reasons we love March. Consistent upsets that never fail to surprise is why the men's college basketball tournament is special. Few postseasons provide this kind of parity year in and year out.

With that said, you better believe the upcoming tournament will have more upsets. For 16 straight tournaments, at least one double-digit seed has advanced to the regional semifinals. Since 2016, an average of 2.0 double-digit seeds been one of the final 16 teams standing.

Several mid-majors are likely to make our best bets for each game in the men's college basketball tournament. While utilizing FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds, check out our three potential Cinderella runs.

Best Cinderella Picks for Men's College Basketball Tournament

No. 11 VCU Rams

VCU is familiar with Cinderella runs, going on perhaps the greatest run in tournament history with a national semifinals appearance as an 11 seed in 2011.

The Rams entire the tournament held in high regard, ranking 30th in KenPom, 29th in Bart Torvik, and 17th (!) in EvanMiya's relative rating. VCU's first round opponent, BYU, is 16th in relative rating, 24th in KenPom, and 14th in BYU. This should be a close one as the 2.5-point spread suggests.

Among mid-majors who earned a top-11 seed while also sitting in the top 13 of average score margin, 28 of 38 squads won its first round game (73.7%). That fares pretty well for a first round win, and the Rams should have an advantage from three against the Cougs. VCU is in the 93rd percentile of three-point shot distribution while BYU is in the 9th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed. Unlike the Cougs, the Rams defend the three well by sitting in the 82nd percentile of allowed shot distribution, helping slow BYU's 48.3% three-point shot distribution (96th percentile).

Going back to that margin of victory, top-11-seeded mid-majors in the top 9 of average score margin went 14-3 in the first round (82.4%). VCU ranks eighth in the category, once again suggesting a second-round appearance. The next game would probably be against Wisconsin, which is favored by 16.5 points versus Montana.

The Badgers would be another tough pull after appearing in the Big Ten Championship Game. In general, the better defensive team usually wins the second round matchups. From 2016 to 2021, about 72.5% of teams with the best defensive efficiency from KenPom won in the second round. This has slightly increased to 75.0% over the last three tournaments as 36 of 48 teams won its matchup with the better defense.

According to KenPom, Wisconsin is ranked 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency while VCU is 23rd. That 75.0% mark is something I can get behind. The most likely matchup in the regional semifinals would be Alabama, and its 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Believe it or not, about 70.0% of teams with the best defense have also won regional semifinal collisions over the last five tournaments. Plus, one of the Crimson Tide's best players, Grant Nelson, is battling a knee injury. VCU is +1120 to advance to the regional finals.

Don't be surprised if the Rams go on another memorable run led by solid defense and exceptional three-point shooting.

No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons

UC San Diego is truly one of the most dominant 12 seeds we've seen in recent memory, holding a +15.1 average score margin (fifth-highest). Additionally, the Tritons are 36th in KenPom, 45th in Bart Torvik, and 41st in EvanMiya's relative rating.

The turnover battle has been a huge strength with UC San Diego logging only 9.0 turnovers per game (fourth-fewest) while forcing 15.6 per contest (sixth-highest). This will be a huge talking point for the Tritons' first round matchup with Michigan, which is totaling 14.1 turnovers per game (7th percentile). UC San Diego is also in the 98th percentile of three-point shot distribution while the Wolverines are in the 50th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed. There's plenty to like about this first-round matchup as the 2.5-point spread suggests.

The Tritons even have the star power to go on a deep run, led by Big West Player of the Year Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. As discussed in our five players to watch in the men's college basketball tournament, Tait-Jones has an all-around game with the ability to get to the rim.

Dominating the turnover battle while sitting in the 88th percentile of effective field goal percentage (eFG%) on both sides of the ball spells success. Ranking in the 95th percentile of three-point makes and attempts per game is the cherry on top. This team is loaded with reasons for a Cinderella run; the hype is real.

As its +380 odds suggest, UC San Diego making the regional semifinals really isn't that crazy.

No. 13 High Point Panthers

We dipped into some defensive stats for VCU's potential run, but that won't be the case for High Point. The Panthers rank 227th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they make up for that by ranking 25th on offense while logging 81.7 (PPG) points per game (95th percentile) paired with a 56.4 eFG% (97th percentile).

High Point is an 8.5-point underdog in the first round against Purdue, which is the second-lowest spread among 4-13 games. This contest's potential style tailors to what the Panthers like to do. The Boilermakers often get into scoring duels, ranking 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Purdue is actually worse in eFG% allowed, sitting in the 34th percentile of the category while High Point is in the 74th percentile of the department.

With each team in the top 15 of eFG%, this should feature very efficient offense. If each unit is finding success, this one could easily become a toss up -- potentially coming down to the possession battle. The Panthers are great on the offensive glass (86th percentile), and Purdue is in the 33rd percentile of defensive rebounding percentage.

Moving on to a potential second-round game, the Panthers would face Clemson or McNeese. Frankly, High Point will need to cross its fingers for an upset as Clemson is 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the 10th percentile for the slowest tempos in college basketball. McNeese is one of the best mid-majors, though, ranking 59th in KenPom. Keep in mind 16 of the last 21 No. 12 seeds to win in the first round were in the top 60 of KenPom.

If the Panthers can get to a regional semifinal, I don't see them advancing over teams like Houston or Gonzaga. Still, a No. 13 seed snagging two wins is plenty good enough for a Cinderella story, and it's a major longshot with High Point at +1220 odds.

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