World Series Betting Guide: Rangers at Diamondbacks, Game 3

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet on the World Series. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing in Game 3?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, Game 3

Rangers ML (-112)

There's a world where the Arizona Diamondbacks are up 2-0 in the World Series right now. It took some improbable late-game heroics from the Texas Rangers to squeak out an extra-innings win in Game 1 before the D-backs ran away with a 9-1 victory in Game 2.

Heading back home, you'd think Arizona would be well-positioned to take hold of the series with a Game 3 win.

Not so fast, my friend.

For as good as Brandon Pfaadt has looked of late, I'm inclined to trust a future Hall of Famer (Max Scherzer) backed by a more consistent lineup over a rookie on a hot streak.

Pfaadt ran into some trouble during the Wild Card series but has since responded with three stellar starts -- the most recent of which propelled Arizona to a Game 7 win in the NLCS. The righty has posted a 2.70 ERA and 2.50 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) through four outings. He hasn't picked up a postseason win yet, but his 33.8% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate have been a massive step up from his regular-season marks.

Still, Pfaadt ran into a lot of trouble during the regular season when he registered a 5.72 ERA across 96 innings of work. His third-percentile 11.7% barrel rate and 16th-percentile 44% hard-hit rate were of particular concern, and a measly 32.6% groundball rate didn't help, either.

The end results have been much better in his last three playoff starts, but the shaky batted-ball metrics loom. The rookie has allowed a 17.1% barrel rate and a 41.5% hard-hit rate through 16.2 postseason innings.

Pfaadt has his work cut out for him tonight. Although they were shut down by righty Merrill Kelly in Game 2, the Rangers have seldom struggled against right-handed pitchers. They finished the regular season with the third-highest wOBA (.339), second-highest ISO (.195), and second-highest rate of hard contact (37.1%) in that split.

That's continued well into the postseason. Not only does Texas's .807 OPS against righties lead all playoff teams, but it's noticeably higher than their fifth-ranked .774 OPS against lefties.

Consequently, I'm not expecting Pfaadt to last long tonight. Their bullpen is well-rested, and they have a number of reliable options to turn to.

Righties Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and Paul Sewald have been rock-solid during the postseason, but I'm concerned about their lefties.

Joe Mantiply (4.26 ERA) and Andrew Saalfrank (3.86 ERA) haven't looked great in limited playoff action. That's especially worrying with two potent left-handed bats (Corey Seager and Evan Carter) holding down the heart of Texas' order.

It's not like Pfaadt or Arizona's relievers have pitched poorly, but I fear the margin of error is going to be pretty small tonight against Max Scherzer.

Scherzer is something of a wild card. He looked to have taken a step back at the beginning of the season, but the 39-year-old was revitalized after being dealt to Texas. He posted a 3.20 ERA, 3.64 SIERA, and 29.9% strikeout rate in eight starts with the Rangers, compared to a 4.01 ERA, 3.84 SIERA, and 27.3% strikeout rate in 19 outings with the Mets.

However, a late injury sent Scherzer to the shelf for over a month. He returned to start Games 3 and 7 of the ALCS, but the results weren't great. In a combined 6.2 innings, Mad Max gave up nine hits, seven runs, and a pair of homers. He struck out just six batters (though he did generate 13 swinging strikes).

The Diamondbacks haven't been especially potent against righties. They ranked 13th with a .320 wOBA for the season, but that number dipped to .308 after the All-Star break, 22nd over that span. On top of that, their .148 ISO was a bottom-five mark in the second half.

If Scherzer runs into trouble early, I won't be shocked to see one of their two lefties, Andrew Heaney or Cody Bradford. Bradford most recently tossed a scoreless inning in Game 1, while Heaney pitched to three batters in Game 2.

Arizona ranked in the bottom 10 against lefties in wOBA (.309) and ISO (.143) during the regular season.

The only positive from the Rangers getting blown out in Game 2 is that they were able to save their most important bullpen arms. All three of Aroldis Chapman, Jose Leclerc, and Josh Sborz should be good to go. Chapman in particular could play an important role given Arizona's aforementioned lefty splits, but Leclerc is clearly their go-to option. He's given up a run in just three of his 11 postseason appearances thus far.

I'm giving Texas the advantage at the dish and between starters tonight. Consequently, I'm inclined to back what I believe is the better team, the Rangers, in a moneyline bet that's essentially even money.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.