Why Tyler Shough's Age Is a Concern in the 2025 NFL Draft

At the most basic level, a general manager's job in the NFL Draft is simple.

Just draft good football players, man.

If you find players who can be productive in the NFL, we won't care about their workout metrics, college production, or anything else. We just want guys who can contribute.

That's likely why Tyler Shough is getting steam for this year's draft. Some analysts have gushed over his film, pushing him up to 76th on The Athletic's consensus big board, and he's even higher for some analysts whose opinions I respect. The Athletic's Dane Brugler has Shough ranked 50th, and Yahoo's Nate Tice has him 64th. That's despite the fact that Shough will be 26 years old for most of his rookie season.

I put stock in what those people think because they have a different skillset than I do: they are versed in watching prospects while my strengths lie in data. Thus, seeing Shough high on their lists forces me to pause and give things a second of thought.

But the data for Shough is really rough.

And yes, a lot of it is because of his age.

Let's dig into some context behind Shough's age, outline why it matters, and then blend that with the thoughts of the analysts to get an idea of how we should view Shough before next week's draft.

Why Age Matters for Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft

In theory, age should matter less at quarterback than any other position.

It's a position where players who are good enough can be effective into their late 30s. Shough isn't anywhere near there. So, why should we care that he's older?

It's because age is an indicator of talent more than anything.

The ideal for an NFL Draft prospect is a quarterback who is both young and experienced. This means he was not only good enough to force his way onto the field early in his college career but he also played well enough in college to declare for the draft at a young age.

We see this borne out in the data.

As discussed in my February breakdown of the top quarterbacks in this draft, there are 14 first-round quarterbacks since 2010 who have finished in the top 10 in numberFire's Total Net Expected Points (their EPA metric, which factors in expected points gained or lost on sacks, rushes, and pass attempts) in one-third of their qualified seasons. This group includes the superstars like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson -- the ideals of what you want when you draft a quarterback. We'll label them as "hits" for this exercise.

Conversely, 15 former first-rounders in this span have never logged a single top-15 season in Total NEP (excluding those who haven't been in the league for at least three seasons). We'll label them the "whiffs."

The table below compares the collegiate resumes of the hits and the whiffs. Here, the player's age is how old they were on Day 1 of that year's draft. The "Games" column is the number of games in which they had 10-plus pass attempts. AY/A (Adjusted Yards per Attempt) and Total QBR are from their final collegiate seasons. "Pre-Draft Model" is my own quarterback prospect model, which blends this data together to give a catch-all number to rate a prospect without accounting for draft capital or expected draft capital.

The successful quarterbacks were a half year younger and almost a half season more experienced than the others. Of the quarterbacks in our "hit" category, only Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels were older than 22.6 years old on Day 1 of the draft.

Shough will be 25.6.

We see this for non-first-rounders, too. Since 2010, only seven non-first-rounders have logged multiple top 10 seasons in Total NEP. Those seven were, on average, younger and more experienced than the average Day 2 or Day 3 pick.

Here, the oldest hit was Kirk Cousins at 23.7 years old, 1.9 years younger than Shough will be this year.

The experience angle is important, too. Due to injuries and starting his career as a backup, Shough has double-digit pass attempts in just 31 games coming out. That's almost a full season less than the successful non-first rounders.

This is all explainable, given the fluky injuries and the fact that Shough sat behind a cyborg in Justin Herbert. That context matters. We just haven't seen anybody of Shough's profile wind up a success in the NFL, at least in the past 15 years.

Context Behind Tyler Shough's Age

Given the successes of Daniels and Bo Nix, it's possible we'll see things start to shift in the future. NIL can allow talented players to stay in college longer without it being a huge indictment of their skill.

We just shouldn't apply lessons from Daniels and Nix to Shough.

The key difference is what we touched on above: experience. Both Daniels and Nix were five-year starters who forced their way onto the field as true freshman. Shough was a redshirt sophomore when he got his first chance, and even in that season, he split some time late in the year with backup Anthony Brown, leading to Shough's transfer to Texas Tech.

Daniels and Nix were also far more efficient than Shough coming out. Here are their collegiate resumes side-by-side, showing that their success shouldn't have any bearing on how we view Shough.

As you can see, the model liked Daniels and Nix -- despite their age -- because they emphatically checked the experience and efficiency boxes. Shough checks zero of those.

The track record of players of that mold is poor. Since 2010, 32 quarterbacks have been invited to the combine while meeting the following thresholds:

• 23.5 or older on Day 1 of the draft
• 36 or fewer games with 10-plus pass attempts
• A final-year Total QBR lower than 80

Of that group, 10 went inside the first 150 picks. Here's that list.

The most successful quarterback there is Ryan Tannehill. Of Tannehill's 11 qualified NFL seasons, he was top 15 in Total NEP only 3 times. The others have combined to do so zero times, and many of them barely -- if ever -- saw the field.

The final caveat here is that Shough's age is even above this group. At 25.6 years old, he's the fourth oldest quarterback invited to the combine since 2010. The only top 100 picks who were older than 24.5 when drafted in this span are Brandon Weeden and Hendon Hooker. Shough is a largely unprecedented prospect from a data perspective, and most of his closest comps didn't pan out.

What This All Means

None of this is to say that Shough can't be a good prospect. Definitives don't exist in this business, and as outlined above, people I deeply respect like him. That matters.

Instead, it's all about probabilities. History tells us older, inexperienced, inefficient quarterbacks don't often pan out. Shough could be the guy to break that trend; he'd just need to buck the odds in order to do so.

When Shough is drafted, he'll be older than 11 starting NFL quarterbacks (12 if you count Cam Ward, which would make Shough older than every starter in the AFC South). Maybe he's just a late bloomer whose physical tools will help him break out. I'll just want to see it happen before buying in based on what history tells me.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $250 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you for this year's draft? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL Draft betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.