Ranking the Top Quarterback Prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft by Their College Stats

As they do every year, the NFL playoffs showed us just how important it is to have a dude at quarterback.

You want to win a Super Bowl? You need a cyborg who can go blow-for-blow with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and others.

You want to turn your franchise around in the blink of an eye? Get someone as dynamic as Jayden Daniels.

Success in the NFL revolves around the quality of your quarterback. And for teams lacking at that position, the NFL Draft is almost always their best route for hitting a home run.

The perception around the 2025 draft, though, is that it's lacking at this critical position. Only Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders have gotten consistent first-round buzz, a massive downturn after we saw six guys go in the first round last year.

But are there any diamonds in the rough? And are Ward and Sanders worth taking swings on?

We're going to use one tool to try to answer those questions today: statistics.

The opinions of scouts matter. That's why 12 of the 14 starting quarterbacks in this year's playoffs were first-round picks. Broadly, evaluators are good at what they do.

But the data matters, as well, and it can go a long way toward telling us which players have the best odds of turning into the next answer at quarterback.

Let's dig into why these numbers are important first, and then we'll shift our attention toward this year's class.

Why Statistics Matter in Evaluating NFL Quarterback Prospects

I've got a model that grades quarterback prospects purely based on their statistical profiles coming out of college. Draft capital will always be key, but we don't have that info yet. And, frankly, the model can guide us pretty well even without it.

Of the 13 quarterbacks in this year's playoffs drafted after 2010 (excluding Matthew Stafford), 8 ranked in the 88th percentile or higher of my model among quarterbacks invited to the combine since 2010. This includes Jayden Daniels, who it tabbed as the best quarterback prospect across those 15 seasons entering last year's draft. The guy he replaced at the top -- Hurts -- just won Super Bowl MVP.

The model considers a player's age (on Day 1 of the NFL Draft), experience (number of games with 10-plus pass attempts), and final-year efficiency (their Total QBR and adjusted yards per attempt, or AY/A). In general, you want the youngest, most experienced, and most efficient guy you can get.

Since 2010, 49 quarterbacks have been first-round picks. Of those 49, 14 have finished in the top 10 in Total Net Expected Points (NEP) in one-third of their qualified seasons. Total NEP is numberFire's EPA metric, which factors in expected points added as both a passer and a rusher and deducts expected points lost due to sacks. These 14 guys are the ideal of what you want if you're taking a quarterback early.

This leaves us with 35 other first-rounders. Of that group, seven players haven't yet had three years in the league, so we won't label them as disappointments yet. This trims our group of less successful first-rounders down to 28.

Those 28 -- on average -- were older, less efficient, and less experienced than the hits coming out of college, leading to their being viewed less favorably by the model.

There are some big whiffs in there. The model was not fond of either Josh Allen or Jordan Love coming out, and they fall into the "hit" category. Players absolutely can succeed without a good collegiate resume. They're just less likely to do so.

The table below looks at the first-round quarterbacks in each range of the pre-draft model. Here, a "hit" means one of those players is within our group of 14 who have been in the top 10 in Total NEP in one-third of their qualified seasons. A "bust" means that player has zero seasons in the top-15 of Total NEP (with a minimum of three years in the league).

As you can see, better-rated prospects are both more likely to be stars and less likely to be total flops.

The one "hit" between the 50th and 79th percentile is Justin Herbert, who is in exactly the 79th percentile. Thus, if we were to cherry-pick and make it the 75th percentile or higher, the hit rate is 44.4% with a 29.6% bust rate; below that, those numbers are 13.3% and 46.7%, respectively.

That's through the lens of first-rounders, but it does apply to non-first-rounders, too. Since 2010, seven quarterbacks drafted outside the first round have logged multiple top-10 seasons in Total NEP. As you can see here, they are also younger, more efficient, and more experienced than other Day 2 or Day 3 picks.

Again, scouts are good at what they do, which is why the average pick is lower for the successes both here and among the first-rounders. This is just one piece of the pie. But it's an important one.

So, with that in mind, let's dig into the 2025 class. For today, we're going to focus on just players inside the top 75 of MockDraftable's Consensus Big Board: Ward, Sanders, Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart, Quinn Ewers, and Will Howard. If you want a rundown of any other quarterback who gets a combine invite, you can check out the NFL Draft tab of the site for those.

But among those six, who has the best statistical resume coming out? It's not one of those guys getting consistent first-round buzz.

As a note, the percentiles referenced for each category are among players invited to the combine since 2010, and the top comps are based purely on each player's statistical profile, not their playstyle.

2025 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings

1. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Age: 21.9 (83rd percentile)

Games: 45 (82nd percentiile)

AY/A: 11.5 (96th percentile)

Total QBR: 86.3 (88th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 97th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Jalen Hurts

You don't often run into a prospect who checks all three key boxes: young, experienced, and efficient.

Jaxson Dart does so emphatically.

Since 2010, only eight players invited to the combine have:

• Been younger than 22 on Day 1 of the draft
• Had 30-plus games with 10-plus pass attempts
• Recorded a final-year Total QBR of at least 80.0

Those eight players are:

• Patrick Mahomes
• Lamar Jackson
• Jalen Hurts
• Trevor Lawrence
• Deshaun Watson
• Jared Goff
• Marcus Mariota
• Teddy Bridgewater

Half of those guys are on the list of first-round picks who have been top 10 in Total NEP in one-third of their seasons. Another is a second-rounder who -- again -- just won Super Bowl MVP.

Dart will join them this year, clearing both the experience and efficiency benchmarks by a wide margin.

When you blend it all together, Dart winds up being the seventh-ranked quarterback in the history of the model, which currently includes 259 players. Of the players ahead of him, five wound up being top-five picks, and the other was Hurts. So not only have these kinds of players hit at a high rate, but they tend to go high in the draft.

That's worth keeping in mind once more NFL Draft props are posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The obvious retort to all of this is that Dart's stats are misleading. He played in a Lane Kiffin offense where Dart used play action on 53.2% of his drop backs, according to PFF. It led to a bunch of open receivers and easy throws, which would juice up his Total QBR and AY/A.

A couple of issues with that.

First, as laid out above, Dart's resume goes beyond his efficiency. Earning starts as a true freshman at a Power 5 school and then starting three years in the SEC -- all at such a young age -- is a huge endorsement of his talent. Coaches wanted him on the field immediately.

Second, Dart is lightyears beyond other Kiffin quarterbacks in the draft.

Only two other times has a quarterback who had Kiffin as his primary playcaller in his final year of college been invited to the NFL combine. Those are Matt Corral (2022) and Matt Barkley (2013). Obviously, neither became a quality NFL player.

The gap between Dart's profile and theirs, though, is quite large. Here's just a quick comparison of the data on each guy entering the draft.

Additionally, in obvious passing situations -- where play action is less effective -- Dart was superior.

On 3rd or 4th down and 6-plus yards, Dart averaged 8.70 yards per play (on passes, rushes, or sacks). That's in the 77th percentile of FBS quarterbacks drafted since 2011. Barkley (51st percentile) and Corral (7th) struggled by comparison.

Based on initial reporting, it's not a lock that Dart goes in the first round. That would ding his outlook, given most successful NFL quarterbacks are former first-rounders.

It'd still be good to hold out some hope for his developing, though. As mentioned, even non-first-rounders are more likely to hit when the model views them favorably. In addition to Hurts, the only other non-first-rounder in the top 10 of the model is Russell Wilson, whose six top-10 finishes in Total NEP are tied for the most of any non-first-rounder since 2010. Jimmy Garoppolo had two such seasons and was in the 87th percentile.

We'll have to see how scouts ultimately view Dart, but from purely a numbers perspective, he's deserving if he winds up coming off the board early.

2. Cam Ward, Miami

Age: 22.9 (57th percentile)

Games: 57 (98th percentiile)

AY/A: 10.5 (90th percentile)

Total QBR: 88.7 (93rd percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 96th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Baker Mayfield

If not for Dart, Ward would be getting a lot more hype from the model. He's also a phenomenal prospect, by the numbers.

Ward isn't as young as Dart, but he makes up for it with gobs of experience. His 57 games with 10-plus pass attempts rank fourth among combine-invitees since 2010.

Importantly, he does that without being all that old. At 22.9 years old, Ward is the most experienced quarterback yet to turn 24 years old, much less 23. He started as a true freshman at Incarnate Word and never relinquished that role until leaving the Miami (FL) Hurricanes this year.

Ward also had elite efficiency, finishing second in the nation in Total QBR this past season and ranking in the 93rd percentile within the model. That's a requirement for an older prospect.

Let's go back to our list of 14 successful first-round picks. Of that group, only three of them were older than 22.5 years old when they were drafted. Ward's profile does at least measure up decently well compared to theirs.

One of the tougher aspects of Ward's evaluation is that Miami didn't face many elite defenses this year. On average, opposing defenses ranked 68.7 in ESPN's Defensive SP+ metric, worse than the average mark of 59.9 among FBS quarterbacks drafted since 2010.

When Ward did face solid units, though, he was able to shred. His 10.4 AY/A against top-50 defenses by SP+ ranked second in this class behind just Dart. That split also represented 48.0% of his pass attempts.

The average AY/A against top-50 defenses for our sample of drafted quarterbacks is 7.6. Ward's mark of 10.4 ranks 14th. Of the 12 guys ahead of Ward (excluding Dart), 8 were first-round picks, including Daniels, Burrow, and Ward's top comp, Baker Mayfield.

Like all quarterbacks, Ward has his blemishes. He can be a little loosey-goosey with the ball, which could lead to an elevated turnover rate. He's an electric player to watch, though, and the numbers say he deserves the hype he has gotten to this point.

3. Will Howard, Ohio State

Age: 23.6 (25th percentile)

Games: 45 (82nd percentiile)

AY/A: 10.1 (86th percentile)

Total QBR: 89.6 (94th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 83rd percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Kevin Hogan

The falloff after Ward is pretty drastic, and it helps validate the general skepticism around this class. Will Howard winds up being next on the list despite one big red flag in his profile.

Let's start on the positive end: Howard shot up this list thanks to what he did in the College Football Playoff.

During the regular season, Howard's Total QBR was 83.0. This is perfectly acceptable and ranked seventh in the nation.

Thanks to what he did in the playoffs, he finished at 89.6, the best number of any quarterback this year. If he had finished at 83.0, he'd be in just the 75th percentile of the model. Instead, he's a respectable 83rd.

As you saw in the section above, if you're going to be an older quarterback, you had better be efficient. Howard did that.

Howard's profile is also in line with players who hit after going outside the first round. Here's his collegiate resume alongside the seven quarterbacks referenced earlier with multiple top-10 seasons in Total NEP who weren't first-round picks. (Note that Garoppolo's Total QBR is an approximation based on his passing stats as ESPN doesn't have QBR for FCS schools.)

Thus, Howard's efficiency is good enough to pique our interest.

The age is what keeps Howard from climbing higher on this list. Not only is he in the 25th percentile of age, but he's tied in games played with Dart -- who is 1.7 years younger -- while being a full season behind Ward, who is 0.7 years younger.

This pushes Howard to the 83rd percentile of the model. There have been some successes surrounding this range as you're within shouting distance of Andrew Luck while being ahead of Justin Herbert and Drake Maye. But only 4 of 13 players between the 80th and 85th percentile did go in the first round, and none of them (Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins, Paxton Lynch, and Blake Bortles) truly hit.

Howard's age dings him enough in the model where his odds of panning out are lower than what we get from either Dart or Ward. Still, the efficiency is good enough where we should at least keep the light on for Howard.

4. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

Age: 23.2 (43rd percentile)

Games: 50 (93rd percentiile)

AY/A: 9.3 (69th percentile)

Total QBR: 75.5 (59th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 70th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Kenny Pickett

There is no doubt that Shedeur Sanders is a good thrower of the football. You don't finish second in the nation in Total EPA added as a passer by accident. He's poised and accurate, and he makes good reads.

The non-throwing aspects drag down his statistical profile.

Specifically, Sanders took a ton of sacks. He lost the fourth-most EPA on sacks in the nation, per ESPN, which helps explain his 75.5 Total QBR. He also added only 8.1 EPA as a rusher, fewer than every quarterback we're looking at today except Quinn Ewers.

The offensive line deserves blame here. They ranked 51st in PFF's pass-blocking grade. But that's above both Alabama (61st) and Ole Miss (86th), and neither Jalen Milroe (6.6%) nor Jaxson Dart (6.7%) had a sack rate as high as Sanders' (8.1%). Sanders was responsible for 26.3% of the pressures he faced, according to PFF, seventh highest among 134 quarterbacks who allowed at least 50 pressures.

The issue with Sanders is that he would sometimes compound sacks, running backwards in an attempt to evade pressure, losing more yardage on the play. He finished the year with -84 rushing yards in obvious passing situations (3rd or 4th down and 6-plus yards), the second fewest of any FBS quarterback drafted since 2011, ahead of only Tom Savage at -93.

That's just one stat, but he is in poor company. The worst mark in that split for any successful quarterback is Mahomes at -33. Sanders is 51 yards behind that.

That's the biggest downside for Sanders: his sacks and lack of rushing production torpedoed his QBR. His age also isn't a plus.

Sanders will be 23.2 years old on Day 1 of the draft. That's only 0.3 years older than Ward, but as mentioned with Ward, the benchmark for efficiency is higher with an older prospect.

Here's the same table we had with Ward, comparing his resume with that of successful, older first-round picks, but with Sanders in the mix instead.

This results in Sanders' winding up in the 70th percentile of the model. As mentioned above, Justin Herbert wound up being a success despite sitting in the 79th percentile. Sanders isn't too far from that mark.

Here are the rest of the names in that range.

Herbert's a potential star, and both Drake Maye and Michael Penix Jr. showed flashes as rookies. Plus, some of the others have had usable seasons; none of this says that Sanders can't hit. It's just to say that -- in the eyes of the model -- his odds of doing so are lower than others.

The downside here with Sanders is, again, his age. Of the players who have been hits despite ranking below the 80th percentile in the model, Herbert is the oldest at 22.1 years old. Josh Allen (21.9) and Jordan Love (21.4) were below him. Typically, if the model is too low on a player, it's because he's young. But Sanders is 0.9 years older than the average first-round pick.

Scouts clearly like Sanders, and that matters. And he's fun to watch as a thrower, so the hope is that he hits. The data just isn't overly glowing, meaning we should proceed with caution in how we view him early in his NFL career.

5. Quinn Ewers, Texas

Age: 22.1 (82nd percentile)

Games: 36 (51st percentiile)

AY/A: 8.0 (35th percentile)

Total QBR: 75.5 (59th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 69th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Nate Sudfeld

Quinn Ewers has a couple of components you really like: he's young and a three-year starter. That's a good blend, and as laid out with Sanders, it's the combo you want if you're going to out-perform the model's expectations.

The efficiency here, though, is a step below Sanders', pushing Ewers down a rung.

Let's start with the positives. Assuming Ewers winds up being a Day 2 or Day 3 pick, his profile will be above-average relative to that sample.

He's not all that far off from the average resume of a successful non-first-round pick, so there is reason for hope.

It's the efficiency that leaves you wanting more.

Both Ewers' AY/A (35th percentile) and Total QBR (59th percentile) are middling numbers, especially once you account for his having the second-ranked offensive line in PFF's pass-blocking grade.

It's also hard to put all the blame on the oblique and ankle injuries Ewers suffered this year. His Total QBR last year was 78.3, which would still be below the average for a first-round pick (80.8).

That injury is why it would have been nice to see Ewers back in college for another season. He still would have been younger than Sanders is now, and it's possible his efficiency could have ticked up as a collegiate vet. Instead, we'll be left to evaluate Ewers based on his current resume, which puts him in an acceptable range for a non-first-rounder but not on par with those who go earlier.

6. Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Age: 22.4 (78th percentile)

Games: 27 (24th percentiile)

AY/A: 8.4 (45th percentile)

Total QBR: 78.3 (68th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 64th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Ryan Mallett

As mentioned before, the quarterbacks who have really outperformed the model have been on the younger side of things. They've also been tremendous athletes, a box that Jalen Milroe checks. His tools mean he has an obvious path to upside.

That kind of "swing-for-the-fences" mentality can pay off, as we've seen with Allen and Love. The floor here is just lower than you'd like, primarily due to the passing.

Milroe's AY/A is in the 45th percentile, which is underwhelming to start. That number was juiced up a bit by advantageous situations.

Milroe struggled in obvious passing situations and when he faced quality defenses. Starting with the obvious passing situations (again, meaning 3rd or 4th down and 6-plus yards), Milroe averaged 7.87 yards per play (on pass attempts, sacks, and rush attempts). That's the lowest of the quarterbacks we're looking at today.

Here's that along with their AY/A in those situations, relative to FBS quarterbacks drafted since 2011.

Despite his athleticism, Milroe ran for just 12 yards in that split (again, after deducting for yardage lost on sacks), trailing Dart (79) and Ward (69) by wide margins.

As for the opponents, Milroe faced a tough schedule. He logged 76.5% of his pass attempts against top-50 defenses by SP+, second-highest among our six-quarterback sample. He just really struggled in that sample.

Here's the same chart we used above with Ward, showing how quarterbacks performed against quality defenses and how often they faced them.

Dart led the way, sitting in the 93rd percentile among drafted FBS quarterbacks since 2011. Milroe was in the 32nd percentile.

Finally, Milroe isn't quite as experienced as you'd like to see. His 27 games with double-digit pass attempts is in just the 24th percentile. That's concerning no matter where he goes in the draft.

Among first-rounders, there were five "hits" who entered the draft with fewer than 30 games played. Of that group, only Joe Burrow was older than Milroe. Three of the five had yet to turn 22. Additionally, Josh Allen was the only player in that group with a Total QBR lower than 87.7, a mark Milroe missed by nearly 10 points.

Among the successful non-first-rounders, the minimum number of games played was 36, and the average was 42.6. Even if we change the criteria to just one season in the top 10 in Total NEP, the minimum decreases to 33 from Nick Foles while the average actually increases to 44.1.

Thus, similar to Ewers, it might have been in Milroe's best interest to go back to school. His tools are enticing, so you can never write him off, but the hit rate on prospects of his statistical profile is low.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.