Thunder vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Jan. 11

Thunder vs. Heat Game Info

• Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center -- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Coverage: FDSSUN and FDSOK

The Miami Heat (20-18) are big, 14-point underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-7) at Paycom Center on Sunday, January 11, 2026. The game begins at 7 p.m. ET on FDSSUN and FDSOK. The matchup has an over/under of 232.5.

Thunder vs. Heat Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Thunder vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (82.6%)

Thunder vs. Heat Betting Trends

• The Thunder have put together a record of 19-20-0 against the spread this season.
• The Heat have 21 wins against the spread in 38 games this season.
• Thunder games have gone over the total 20 times out of 38 chances this season.
• Heat games this season have eclipsed the over/under 18 times in 38 opportunities (47.4%).
• Oklahoma City has a better record against the spread at home (11-10-0) than it does in road games (8-10-0).
• At home, the Thunder exceed the over/under 52.4% of the time (11 of 21 games). They've hit the over in 50% of road games (nine of 18 contests).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, Miami has a better winning percentage at home (.579, 11-8-0 record) than on the road (.526, 10-8-1).
• Both at home (nine of 19) and away (nine of 19), the Heat's games have finished over (in terms of the over/under) 47.4% of the time.

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.9 points, 4.5 boards and 6.4 assists. At the other end, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocked shots.
• Chet Holmgren averages 18.2 points, 8.3 boards and 1.6 assists, shooting 57.5% from the field and 37.7% from downtown, with 1.4 made treys per contest.
• Ajay Mitchell averages 14.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists.
• Jalen Williams averages 17.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists, shooting 46.2% from the field.
• Cason Wallace's numbers on the season are 7.5 points, 3.1 boards and 2.1 assists per contest, shooting 41.3% from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.4 made 3-pointers.

Heat Leaders

• Norman Powell's numbers on the season are 23.8 points, 3.7 boards and 2.7 assists per contest. He is also draining 48.2% of his shots from the field and 41.5% from beyond the arc, with an average of 3 triples.
• The Heat get 12 points per game from Kel'el Ware, plus 10.4 rebounds and 0.6 assists.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 16.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists. He is making 53.3% of his shots from the field.
• Bam Adebayo averages 16.8 points, 9.6 boards and 2.6 assists. He is sinking 45% of his shots from the floor and 31.9% from 3-point range, with 1.3 treys per game.
• Per game, Andrew Wiggins gets the Heat 15.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists, plus 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks.

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