4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 5/10/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians

Phillies Moneyline (-130)

It's never comforting to see a 17.18 ERA in FanDuel's app and say "let me get some of that", but context is key with Ranger Suarez.

The Philadelphia Phillies' lefty was bit by a small sample in his first start of the season, recording 3.2 unsuccessful innings. However, his skill-interactive ERA (3.14 SIERA) in this blip was actually quite good because he did a great job limiting hard contact (33.3% rate allowed). That continues a trend from 2024 where the southpaw managed a 3.61 SIERA.

Suarez seems to represent a pitching advantage over Tanner Bibee. The right-hander's 4.73 SIERA in a much larger sample (38.0 innings) has also come with a concerning 41.6% hard-hit rate allowed.

Additionally, Philadelphia's team OPS against righties (.744) is excellent, and the Cleveland Guardians' against lefties (.650) isn't.

While Cleveland took yesterday's series opener, Philadelphia seems in a good spot to knot the series.

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels

Over 10.0 Runs (-106)

Whew boy.

It could be a fun one at Angel Stadium tonight. In addition to winds blowing out at MLB's fourth-best park for home runs, we've got two poor pitchers awaiting the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels.

We'll deep dive into Baltimore's Kyle Gibson in a moment, so put a pin in his 14.09 ERA for now. I'll spoil it by saying it's not good. On L.A.'s side, Jack Kochanowicz was one of MLB's least effective hurlers last season and hasn't fared much better in 2025.

Kochanowicz's 5.22 SIERA has come with a pitiful strikeout rate (12.6%) and alarming 45.2% hard-hit rate allowed. The O's .681 team OPS isn't what they'd have hoped for in March, but they've got to be licking their chops to face the right-hander and MLB's 10th-worst bullpen by xFIP (4.26) behind him.

After just five runs on Friday, these teams could play a barnburner if neither hurler makes significant improvements.

Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+370)

I didn't dive into Gibson because I wanted to save some of the good stuff for here.

The veteran righty has been impossibly poor through two appearances, and we've seen this happen with players close to their age-37 season season as he is. Gibson has allowed a gaudy, video-game-like 7.04 HR/9 to this stage with a 55.2% hard-hit and 14.1% barrel rate allowed. Jackpot.

The Angels might not have Mike Trout, but their team total is 4.5 (+102) against him for a reason. One of those reasons is shortstop Zach Neto.

Neto has clobbered right-handers for an .835 OPS, .200 ISO, 39.1% hard-hit rate, and 39.1% flyball rate in 2025, marking a second consecutive season with better numbers in same-handed matchups. He's got just 3 homers in 65 at-bats despite the great contact, though.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.25 bombs from Neto on Saturday, implying closer to +352 odds if correct. Do it with a couple of ducks on the pond to help cash the over, young fella.

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

Jorge Polanco to Record 2+ Total Bases (+125)

Few in baseball are making more noise against right-handed pitching than Jorge Polanco.

Perhaps masked by his pitcher-friendly home confines, Polanco has smashed righties for an 1.175 OPS, .372 ISO, and 35.9% hard-hit rate across 95 plate appearances. Importantly for this prop, he's also mustered just a 6.3% walk rate in these parameters.

I'm not sure why he's plus money in the bases market with that the case. As the Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays, Bowden Francis will toe the slab for Toronto. Francis' 4.57 SIERA is mediocre with a whopping 80.7% contact rate.

We've got Polanco projected for 2.1 median total bases tonight. He's only cashed this in two of his last seven games with an unusual slant toward left-handers recently, but I'll back the data.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.