Which Workouts Matter Most for Offensive Linemen at the NFL Draft Scouting Combine?

With how technical offensive line play is, it could be easy to brush off the NFL Draft Scouting Combine when trying to project how good someone will be at the next level.

But life's a whole heck of a lot easier when you're a physical specimen, and that's no different up front.

The key is determining which workouts matter for offensive linemen and how much stock we should put in them overall.

We'll do that today, looking at offensive linemen at the combine from 2010 to 2021 (giving them at least four years in the league). We'll take their workouts in Pro Football Reference's database and compare them to the Approximate Value (AV, PFR's attempt to quantify the value a player provides to his team) for each player across his first four years in the league, the length of a rookie contract (minus the option for a first-rounder).

This isn't a perfect exercise. AV is better at tracking who was on the field than who excelled, and not every player does every workout. Some don't do any. Still, it can at least give us a ballpark of which workouts we should emphasize (or not).

For the offensive line, we're going to split this into two groups: tackles and interior offensive linemen. That distinction is important, too, because different workouts are key for each subset.

We'll start with tackles and then dig into centers and guards after that.

Key Workouts for Offensive Tackles at the NFL Draft Combine

There are two routes to examining this, and we'll go through both today.

First, we'll just look at the R-squared value between each player's workout metrics and his AV across the first four seasons. R-squared measures the predictiveness of data points with zero being no relationship and one being a perfect correlation.

Here's that for tackles. The raw column compares just their baseline metric to their AV while weight-adjusted accounts for the player's weight at the combine.

There are some positions that don't have any workouts with an R-squared of at least 0.100. Tackle has two at 0.130 or higher.

Yes, athleticism matters here quite a bit.

That's despite the fact that Orlando Brown Jr. absolutely bombed at the combine and turned into a productive pro. If not for him, those numbers would be among the highest at any position.

The other way we can look at this is examining the metrics of the biggest hits at the position in this time. This will also include Brown, but we can see -- broadly -- in which areas the best tackles shined at the combine.

This table shows that. The average percentile listed is the average percentile rank of the 22 tackles to produce at least 30 AV in their first 4 years among those who did each workout.

This, again, shows that a good 40 time and a good 3-cone are quality omens.

What's most fun, though, is looking at the names of tackles with the best 40 times. Among players in at least the 93rd percentile are Terron Armstead, Lane Johnson, Trent Williams, Tristan Wirfs, Taylor Lewan, Brian O'Neill, Rashawn Slater, and Tyron Smith. Those eight players have combined for nine First-Team All-Pro selections and 10 Second-Team nods. Decent!

So while you can have guys like Brown who turn into quality players despite poor combines, we should put stock in what tackles do in both the 40-yard dash and the 3-cone.

Key Workouts for Guards and Centers at the NFL Draft Combine

Along the interior offensive line, it's a very different discussion for a couple of reasons.

Let's start with the R-squared values for each workout.

The first thing here is that the numbers overall are lower than at tackle. Thus, we can put a bit less stock in workout metrics for guards and centers.

Second, the shuttle was the workout that stood out most. The only positions with higher R-squared values between AV and the shuttle than interior offensive line are safety and edge.

Finally, there's no split between the raw number and the weight-adjusted mark. This is pretty surprising for a position where 280-pound Jason Kelce and 325-pound Quenton Nelson can both be elite.

So, in general, we should care less about workouts for interior linemen, and we should prioritize the shuttle and the broad jump when we do look at numbers.

It's a pretty similar story when we look at the top guards and centers. Here are the average percentile ranks for the 40 interior linemen to post at least 25 AV across their first four years.

Once again, the shuttle separates here, but it's below the mark for both the 40-yard dash and the 3-cone at tackle. The key difference here is that all six workouts were in at least the 60th percentile, something that happened at no other positions.

Thus, when you blend it all together, we should care more about workouts for tackles than interior offensive linemen. For tackles, the 40, broad, and 3-cone stand out while shuttle is they key piece to weigh at center and guard.

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