Which Workouts Matter Most for Defensive Linemen at the NFL Draft Scouting Combine?

When you think about players who starred at the NFL Draft Scouting Combine, a lot of them are edge defenders.

Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Von Miller, and others all put up absurd numbers, showing they had the athleticism it took to be stars.

But which metrics matter most, and how much do they matter?

We'll dig into that today, looking at defensive linemen at the combine from 2010 to 2021 (giving them at least four years in the league). We'll take their workouts in Pro Football Reference's database and compare them to the Approximate Value (AV, PFR's attempt to quantify the value a player provides to his team) for each player across his first four years in the league, the length of a rookie contract (minus the option for a first-rounder).

This isn't a perfect exercise. AV is better at tracking who was on the field than who excelled, and not every player does every workout. Some don't do any. Still, it can at least give us a ballpark of which workouts we should emphasize (or not).

For defensive line, we're going to split things into two groups: interior defensive linemen and edge defenders. This will include players who are technically listed as outside linebackers, and we'll have a separate piece on linebackers. That one will primarily focus on off-ball linebackers, though, while this one will revolve around guys whose primary mission is to get after the quarterback.

Let's start with them and then transition to the big boys.

Key Workouts for Edge Defenders at the NFL Draft Combine

There are two routes to examining this, and we'll go through both today.

First, we'll just look at the R-squared value between each player's workout metrics and his AV across the first four seasons. R-squared measures the predictiveness of data points with zero being no relationship and one being a perfect correlation.

The table below shows this for edge defenders across the six workouts. The raw column shows that metric straight up while the weight-adjusted column accounts for the player's weight at the combine.

Edge is one of just two positions to have three workouts with an R-squared value of at least 0.100 (safety being the other). That's not an insane number, but it does back up the narrative that workouts matter a bit more here.

Specifically, shuttle, 40 time, and 3-cone moved the needle. At a position where speed and agility are paramount, that tracks.

The other way to examine this is by looking at the best of the best in this span and seeing which workouts they crushed.

The table below looks at the average percentile rank of the 30 edge defenders to produce at least 30 AV across their first four seasons. This is for the players in that group who did each workout, comparing them to all edge defenders in that workout at the combine from 2010 to 2021. The numbers below are the weight-adjusted metrics.

By this methodology, 3-cone and shuttle stand out, followed by 40 time.

Overall, this is a good spot to prioritize freakiness. In addition to Watt, Garrett, and Miller, you also have the following players ranking in at least the 95th percentile of at least one workout: TJ Watt (3-cone and shuttle), Khalil Mack (vertical), Nick Bosa (shuttle), and Joey Bosa (3-cone). While they don't necessarily need to stand out in one specific workout, it does seem like standing out somewhere is a big plus.

Obviously, the weight adjustment here is big because the size range on edges is pretty massive. But once you've done that, it does seem like we can put stock in what these defenders do at the combine.

Key Workouts for Defensive Tackles at the NFL Draft Combine

Not surprisingly, it's a different story along the interior. While most workouts have at least some correlation to production, none of them really stand out in the same way they do at edge.

Here's the R-squared value for each workout and the first four years of AV.

The 40-yard dash and 3-cone -- both adjusted for weight -- moved the needle most, but none of the R-squared values hit 0.100. The only other positions where that happened were quarterback and wide receiver.

Things look a bit more impactful when we zero in on the studs. Here are the average percentile ranks of the 26 interior linemen to post at least 25 AV across their first four seasons.

Once again, 40 time and 3-cone both stand out. In this instance, the average percentile rank for each player's 40 time was actually higher than what we saw for edge defenders.

This is boosted by Aaron Donald sitting in the 98th percentile of the 40 along with the 92nd percentile of the 3-cone. But Dontari Poe has the best weight-adjusted 40 in this span (4.89 at 346 pounds), and Fletcher Cox, Geno Atkins, Quinnen Williams, Marcell Dareus, and Dexter Lawrence were all in at least the 90th percentile of that workout. Cox and Ndamukong Suh rank first and fifth, respectively, in adjusted 3-cone.

With this in mind, I do think we should value the workout metrics of interior linemen, even if they're not quite as impactful as what we saw at edge. Again, you'll have to adjust for weight here, but a lot of the league's best stand out once you do so.

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