Week 5 NFL Betting Trends: Backup Quarterback Splits, Early Over/Under Trends

• How have backup quarterbacks fared when stepping into the starting lineup?
• Overs are trending up in 2025 after a slow scoring start in Week 1.
• Home teams have gotten off to a hot start in 2025 compared to recent years, as well.

Research is a key component to NFL betting, and while some trends can really come across as flashy, we have to keep in mind that trends are descriptive. They tell us about what has happened.

If a team's star quarterback is out, his franchise's record against divisional opponents the last four years may not really be of use when digging into an upcoming matchup.

But even with that, it's good to know as much as we can before making up our minds.

So, I'll be looking to pinpoint some potentially noteworthy trends entering each week of the NFL season.

Note: All betting odds and trends since 2019, unless otherwise noted. All data from numberFire.

Week 5 NFL Betting Trends

Backup Quarterbacks Moving Into the Starting Lineup

We're starting to see quarterback injuries pile up. It's not that unexpected. After all, we had 59 different quarterbacks start in 2024. It was 66 in 2023, and 68 in 2022.

So, we get a good number of games where a team is starting a QB who wasn't their Week 1 starter.

This week, we're bracing for a few such spots, and we'll see more throughout the season.

Since 2019, in games where a team started a different quarterback than the week prior -- and who also wasn't their Week 1 starter -- those teams are 34.5% outright but 51.9% against the spread.

We also see noticeable splits whether those teams are at home (40.0% and 54.8%, respectively) or on the road (28.2% and 48.6%, respectively).

Overs Are Trending Up

After a slow offensive start to the season in Week 1, overs are trending up in the NFL in 2025.

The first week of games went over just 25.0% of the time with an average points scored total of just 41.3 and an average over/under of 45.3, which was the highest so far this season.

Since then, over/unders have averaged 44.8, 44.9, and 45.0 -- not keeping up with scoring upticks since the first week: 49.8, 46.3, and 48.6.

Overs have hit at 62.5%, 50.0%, and 62.5% the last three weeks, bringing the season total to 50.0%.

Reminder: this isn't necessarily going to hold true -- but it's important to keep monitoring the early-season data.

Is Home Field Advantage Back?

In recent seasons, home field advantage has become a bit overstated. But we're off to a hot start in that regard in 2025.

From 2019 to 2024, home teams have won 53.2% of their regular season games with a point differential of +1.4 (excluding neutral-site games).

From Weeks 1 to 4 in that span, they were 48.5% outright with a point differential of +0.3, which makes sense -- as home field advantage has tended to grow throughout the year as injuries and travel accumulate.

In 2025 thus far, true home teams are 37-24-1 with a 60.7% outright win rate and a 51.6% cover rate. Their point differential is +4.9 in this span, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.