UFC Vegas 79: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs. Gamrot, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.

Tamires Vidal vs. Montserrat Rendon

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

"Tratora" is one of my favorite nicknames in the sport, and Tamires Vidal lived up to it by plowing through Ramona Pascual in her UFC debut.

Totally unfazed as Pascual landed 93% of her strikes, Vidal threw a flying knee to Pascual's liver that stopped the bout. Before that, she landed an excellent 5.48 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy and figures to -- largely -- be a one-dimensional striker. A +1.29 striking success rate (SSR) is not a badly early return on that.

The UFC has her facing newcomer Montserrat Rendon, so mind the 186 total seconds of fight time between these two before wagering on this bout. All five of Rendon's pro wins have come via decision, and her best quality of available tape shows an aggressive -- but inaccurate -- striker and a willing grappler that has issues finishing takedowns.

However, she will have the rare size to bother Vidal at women's bantamweight. She's 5'8" and likely cuts significant weight to make this mark given her frame.

I've somewhat buried the lede here, though. As mentioned, Vidal had just a 7% striking defense against Pascual, who is primarily a wrestler. She had the more gifted tools on that stage, but Rendon's durability and athleticism can't be questioned at this point. Plus, "Tratora" is not in the best shape for this division at 5'6" and -- at her realistic pinnacle -- could likely make flyweight. She's shown issues with her cardio regionally.

This is ultimately a true guess when we've seen so little of both, but I generally don't want to buy the summit off a flying knee when there are absolutely questions about Vidal. I'd rather back the underdog in DFS and pray she doesn't fall victim to another early, flashy finish from her.

Betting Verdict

• This isn't a fight worth wagering hard-earned dollars. We've got no quality data here, and both women are significantly lacking experience.

DFS Verdict

• Vidal's flying-knee knockout was her first, and she actually went to a decision in three of her five regional wins. FanDuel Sportsbook has this fight lined at -260 to go the distance, so I'd have to feel great about Vidal ($20) to back her, and I don't. Rendon ($11) it is.

Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

There are a lot of red flags on Mizuki Inoue despite the wide moneyline here.

Inoue last fought Amanda Lemos, who challenged for this division's title in August, in 2020, so there's a competition discrepancy from where Hannah Goldy has otherwise fought. That's probably the genesis of these odds, but it's worth remembering that Inoue wasn't competitive in that bout.

She had a -26 striking differential and surrendered two takedowns to Lemos, and her striking differential (-30) was even worse against Yanan Wu (1-5 UFC), who has since been cut. Of course, both of these fights were more than three years ago, so there's plenty of ring rust and uncertainty for her return.

Goldy was the victim of a Molly McCann prop-up spot last summer in London, and she's floundered to a 1-3 record. An armbar saved her from two surrendered takedowns against Emily Whitmire, and she lost a razor-close decision against Miranda Granger. At her best, Goldy is a high-volume striker, eclipsing 90 significant strikes in two of her five UFC-affiliated appearances. At her worst, her 51% striking defense and 55% takedown defense get the best of her.

Unfortunately for Hannah, she's just not very talented. She was battling adversity against Whitmire and has lost to multiple UFC flameouts. Goldy's size and physicality could prove to be too much for Mizuki, but Inoue also has had the benefit of training with an excellent gym (Serra-Longo MMA) in this off period.

This one could be strength versus skill, but I just can't help think what Lemos would have done to Goldy, and Inoue's result -- in hindsight -- makes it seem like these two mixed martial artists are on a different level.

Betting Verdict

• This is another fight I don't love for betting, but I will say that it's a systematic process play here to at least consider Inoue's inside-the-distance (ITD) prop when it's +260. She's implied 75.6% likely to win with just 27.8% odds to do so with a finish, but that's just not how lopsided MMA fights work in any division.

DFS Verdict

• The favorites on this card are poor for fantasy scoring, so you'll have a tough time passing on both Vidal and Inoue to build unique lineups. Vidal is likely more popular off the flying knee, but I actually see more of a path for Inuoe ($21) to win ITD here.

Mohammad Usman vs. Jake Collier

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

I thought this would be a breakdown of a skilled guy for heavyweight that's out of shape against a non-skilled guy in shape. Jake Collier appears to have proved me wrong.

The former UFC middleweight ballooned to heavyweight in a suboptimal way to gain mass, but the trimmed version of Collier on social media entering this one has piqued my interest in a substantial way. Collier has always had a skill edge over most heavyweights, accruing a +0.80 SSR with an underutilized ground game after submitting Chase Sherman in 2022.

The "skill" threshold here against Mohammad Usman is pretty low. The former welterweight champ's brother has a -35 striking differential and -1.70 SSR across two fights with UFC supported by horrible efficiency. He's landed just 27% of his significant strike attempts and 15% of his takedown attempts. Usman laid against Junior Tafa (1-1 UFC) to earn his first win after a comeback knockout to win The Ultimate Fighter against Zac Pauga (1-2 UFC).

If Collier wasn't in optimal shape, I'd have my concerns about the better athlete (Usman) eventually wearing him down with control, but if he's in shape, he should tee off on Usman as a striker and is the one of these two with a UFC win by submission.

Collier just scored a -4 striking differential against the now-ranked Martin Buday before his noticeable weight loss. As the striker, I think he outpoints Usman over the course of 15 minutes in this one.

Betting Verdict

• I do like Collier's moneyline (+124) here. He's proven to be a more impactful heavyweight striker than Pauga with modest takedown defense (67%), and he's also proven to be quite durable.
  • His only first-round loss at heavyweight was to top-five contender Tom Aspinall (6-1 UFC).
• Usman's durability was also tested by Tafa, and he passed with that test with a 64% striking defense. I believe this one goes the full distance (+102 to do so).

DFS Verdict

• This mid-range fight could prove pivotal without many high-scoring bouts on the slate, but I do prefer the 'dog in this spot. Collier is $15 with some finishing upside.

Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Cody Brundage made a poor choice to take a fight on 10 days notice in June, but UFC is giving him a chance to fight through it.

Brundage took on Sedriques Dumas (1-1 UFC) in a competition level that he'd previously cleared, but the Factory X product clearly wasn't prepared. He jumped on a guillotine choke -- a usually desperate maneuver -- four times and landed next to no offense as Dumas eventually wore on him with size and strength. Brundage's two UFC wins in seven efforts aren't exactly aging well, either. Those two fighters he beat have a combined 3-8 record overall with the promotion.

Cody is a boom-or-bust offensive proposition in general. He lands just 1.79 significant strikes per minute, but it's come with an elite 2.24% knockdown rate. He's also trusted his submissions a bit too much, jumping guillotines like that to the tune of 1.2 attempts per 15.

On the other side, Jacob Malkoun is a few seconds in his debut from a near-perfect UFC run. He was knocked out by Phil Hawes (4-3 UFC) in 18 seconds then, but he's since arguably won four straight bouts. He scored over seven minutes of control against Brendan Allen (10-2 UFC) and lost a split decision, but official win or loss aside, that performance against a current top-10 guy has aged like fine wine.

All of Malkoun's last four bouts have been under his terms, landing at least six takedowns in each. He hasn't been resigned to fighting at distance, posting 7.46 takedowns per 15 with solid 44% accuracy on the attempts. If Brundage's 73% takedown defense stands strong, Malkoun (and his 50% striking defense) could face uncharted waters for the first time since the Hawes bout.

However, he's the card's largest betting favorite for a reason. Malkoun just landed a career-high 83 significant strikes and 9 takedowns against Nick Maximov, who bested Brundage by a unanimous decision in 2021. Maximov landed four takedowns on Cody.

It's hard to see Brundage's limited offense having success here without an explosive moment or two, and Malkoun has denied those against stiffer competition.

Betting Verdict

• It is interesting that Malkoun's inside-the-distance prop sits at +115 after going to a decision in four straight. Before Dumas, Brundage had previously seen his fight end early in four straight himself.
  • Cody's cardio isn't great, which could be the opening the Aussie needs for his first career finish.

DFS Verdict

• Malkoun's card-best 5.79 FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses) might be a bit under the radar given the lack of finishes historically. If one comes here, it could be monstrous.

Andre Fialho vs. Tim Means

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Sans an improbable, first-round finish of Miguel Baeza (3-3 UFC), Andre Fialho doesn't have much else going for him.

Fiahlo's other win was a last-minute fight with lightweight Cameron VanCamp (0-2 UFC), and he's equally struggled offensively and defensively as a one-dimensional striker. Without many kicks, he offers just 3.02 significant strikes per minute with 39% accuracy, and his 50% striking D is wholly average. That's all wrapped into a card-worst -2.57 SSR.

If he wins here, I think it'll because Tim Means, approaching 40 years old, has just finally run out of steam. Means has actually had a positive striking differential in his last two fights against Max Griffin (7-8 UFC) and Alex Morono (12-5 UFC). He dropped a split to "Pain" Griffin and was caught by a slick Morono submission -- the first of Morono's career -- in a bit of an ambush.

Means' +1.32 SSR is battled-tested with three wins over multi-time UFC winners since the COVID break. He's also added 1.21 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy, so if one of these two fighters has the grappling advantage, it'll be "The Dirty Bird".

Most of all, the durable veteran has been knocked down just 4 total times on 983 career significant strikes absorbed. Other than a knockdown (and not out) surrendered to Griffin, it also hasn't really plagued him while aging.

I feel like Fialho is the favorite just based on age, but his inefficient striking hasn't found much success recently. This price justifies a dart at the 'dog...or perhaps bird.

Betting Verdict

• Means' moneyline (+144) is one of the better shots at a 'dog on this card. The fringe-ranked level of competition on both sides makes it easier to compare apples to apples with their stats.
• With that said, he's likely better the longer this fight goes, which would correlate with an unexpected full-length fight (+186), too.

DFS Verdict

• Fiahlo's previous knockouts do imply a ceiling here, but I see Means as the superior historical FanDuel scorer and a worthwhile value play at $14.

Dan Argueta vs. Miles Johns

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

As I've aged into a role covering UFC for a living, I just don't like unreliable fighters. Miles Johns has proven himself wholly unreliable.

Johns really isn't a high-level offensive fighter in any way. He lands just 3.63 significant strikes per minute with fine -- not elite -- 48% accuracy. He also has an abysmal 19% takedown accuracy while securing fewer than one per 15 minutes. He's really coasted by entry-level competition with a 69% striking D and 92% takedown D that are both elite. The foes he's beaten are a combined 5-14 with UFC.

Any attempt to stretch his volume has resulted in pure exhaustion with late-fight losses by finish to Mario Bautista and John Castaneda. Therefore, if Dan Argueta can push any sort of pace at all, this could be an explosive result.

Argueta's data sample is pretty corrupt. He's fought twice on short notice at featherweight to a 1-1 record, and what should have been a round-one submission in June was taken away by an impatient referee waving off the fight too soon, resulting in a no-contest against Ronnie Lawrence (3-1 UFC). That performance put him on the map despite the official record not showing a huge win.

Only time will tell if Argueta's furious pace against Lawrence can hold, but a takedown, a reversal, and two submission attempts is the type of activity that has melted Johns historically. Add in that he's got two inches of reach on the feet and has landed a higher percentage of significant strikes (52%) against larger foes, and I think he's avoiding a well-timed haymaker from Johns away from dominating this fight.

Betting Verdict

• Considering Argueta's sample includes 15 minutes of defeat from Damon Jackson (5-3 UFC since start of 2020) up in weight, the fact he has a higher SSR (+0.94) than Johns (+0.78) speaks volumes. I'd consider him in parlays.
• Argueta's pace is an even better argument for under 2.5 rounds (+134). If he doesn't stop a fading Johns, he could also get tired himself. It's my favorite bet in this fight.

DFS Verdict

• One of the reasons I like Argueta ($16) on this card is that he put 118.4 FanDuel points on Lawrence with a competent ref. That sort of upside is wholly lacking.

Charles Jourdain vs. Ricardo Ramos

Featherweight (145 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

This fight takes the cake for the closest in my model in 2023. I've got Ricardo Ramos at 50.2% to win, and Charles Jourdain sits at 49.8%. It's truly a coin flip.

Naturally, you'd have to favor Jourdain in the stand up. His +1.48 SSR has come with 5.78 significant strikes landed per minute -- a number climbing by the fight. He's tallied at least 80 in five of his last six fights, and it's come with an excellent 57% striking defense that is, oddly, exactly the same as Ramos'.

Ramos' explosive striking moments have come with his spinning backfist, but that's just not a sustainable approach against high-level strikers. He lands just 3.32 significant strikes per minute with 38% accuracy, classifying as a weak striker overall for me. The -0.50 SSR only validates that.

The question is if "Carcacinha" can get his wrestling working. He's posted 2.58 significant strikes per minutes with 58% accuracy, and "Air Jourdain" has a terrible 48% takedown defense on paper. That sample isn't getting better, ceding 7 of his last 15 takedown attempts faced.

Ramos' insistence to grapple more before his last fight (which got cancelled) would serve him well here, but Jourdain has gotten his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu since his last loss by submission in 2021. I'm forecasting a bit of stalemate in terms of fight-ending danger on the mat.

Ramos has shown some chin issues against higher-level competition, but Jourdain's lower knockdown rate (0.72%) alleviates those concerns a bit. I think he squeaks by the Canadian in an excellent fight.

Betting Verdict

• Of course, if I've got Ramos slightly favored to win as a +118 underdog, he's likely the side here.
• Intriguingly, I've got this fight at 60.7% to go the distance versus the 51.5% implied odds at Sportsbook.
  • Ramos' knockout prop is the one showing value for me. I've got it at +690 when it pays +850.

DFS Verdict

• This is a fight with identical salaries. I've been burned a lot recently picking the underdog instead of the more popular favorite when that's the case, but sticking to process, I'll take Ramos ($15) as the model's implied winner.

Bryan Battle vs. AJ Fletcher

Welterweight (170 pounds)

"Pooh Bear" has basically no relevant data entering this fight.

Bryan Battle won The Ultimate Fighter in August 2021, but after beating another contest from the show (Tresean Gore) in his debut, he's amassed two knockouts within one minute and was completely ragdolled by Rinat Fakhretdinov (3-0 UFC). Fakhretdinov controlled all but 49 seconds of the 15 minutes the two were locked into the octagon.

Therefore, it's kind of tough to gauge where he fits in an average fight. Battle's +0.47 SSR is the slight offensive success you'd expect with the knockouts, but his 40% striking defense has largely been untested, and his 38% takedown defense is also atrocious. AJ Fletcher's gameplan could determine his success.

Fletcher's first two UFC bouts were pretty difficult assignments, facing the combined 6-5 UFC record of Matthew Semelsberger and Ange Loosa. In his first reprieve toward lesser competition, he submitted Themba Gorimbo (1-1 UFC) in the second round of a bout this February.

"The Ghost" averages 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes with 41% accuracy, so if Battle's takedown defense issues are legitimate, he could have a field day with plenty of mat returns in this one. However, he'll have to overcome a massive 10-inch reach disparity when striking in this one, so I don't really see a path for him there outside of a bomb inside the pocket.

This is an odd fight, but Battle's profile amassing a 3-1 record is largely one to fade. We'll stick to the process.

Betting Verdict

• I like a dart at Fletcher (+152) on the moneyline. He's got great diversity in outcomes with a ground-and-pound TKO, submission, and takedown-laden decision all possibilities.
• Battle survived Fakhretdinov, and "The Ghost" also hasn't been finished in precarious situations, so I'm not sure a cheeky look at over 2.5 rounds (-102) isn't worth a dart as these two match up.

DFS Verdict

• I'd imagine Battle's string of knockouts attracts attention, but I really do believe Fletcher can win this fight with his wrestling at $13.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

Hey, it's a rematch of a fight no one asked to see again.

Marina Rodriguez dominated Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a 2021 five-round main event. She had a +37 striking differential and stuffed four of Waterson's five takedown attempts. This came in a 25-minute sample, so there was no sort of fluke to that result.

Perhaps because Rodriguez's confidence has to be at an all-time low, the promotion wants to see if she's actually improved. She was knocked out by the aforementioned Amanda Lemos to miss an opportunity at a title, and she followed that bout on the wrong side of a grappling masterclass by Virna Jandiroba.

That's quite literally always the plan facing Rodriguez, whose card-best +1.64 SSR is tough to navigate. Her 64% takedown defense has stood well with some (like MWG) but not Jandiroba or Carla Esparza in those specific matchups. Waterson-Gomez averages 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes with 33% accuracy.

This fight would make more sense if it was an older Rodriguez facing an improved MWG, but Waterson-Gomez is 37 years old and older than Marina (36).

"The Karate Hottie" did win the fourth round against Rodriguez using ground control, so perhaps she can deliver two rounds like that in a three-round sample (instead of five) to squeak away this victory, but when 80% of the existing sample has gone the other way, it's hard not to trust it when Waterson is longer in the tooth now than she was in 2021.

Betting Verdict

• There's nothing safe about wagering on this fight when both are so decision-oriented. Rodriguez has seen the cards in 9 of her 11 UFC bouts, and Waterson has seen them in 9 of her last 10 bouts.
• With that said, a dart at Waterson's decision prop (+450) will be my only tiny bit of action in this fight. I've got this fight at 86.5% to go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• This card lacks elite favorites, so there's plenty of room for Rodriguez ($22), but that doesn't inspire much in her ability to score FanDuel points with the fight -310 to go the distance.
• I wouldn't blame those who feel stronger about Battle or Fiahlo as favorites for pivoting to Waterson-Gomez ($9) for salary savings.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Recency bias is the only reason this line isn't -300 or greater in favor of Bryce Mitchell.

On the edge of the rankings, Dan Ige has picked up consecutive wins over unranked 145ers, Damon Jackson and Nate Landwehr, but has greatly struggled within the rankings themselves. Mitchell lost to Ilia Topuria, who may now be next in line for a crack at Alexander Volkanovski's featherweight title.

Ige's issues are consistently the same, stemming from a 56% takedown defense. He was taken down three times by Chan Sung Jung and nine by Movsar Evloev, and that's exactly what Mitchell brings to the table.

"Thug Nasty" averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy. He'd scored at least 3 takedowns and 10 minutes of control against three straight foes before melting down against Topuria's 92% takedown D. One of the triumphs came over Edson Barboza's historically capable 75% takedown defense, so it's not like he's only taken down guys notorious for those problems.

Mitchell was knocked down by Topuria, but his limited striking actually has passed the test even beyond a solid +0.77 SSR. He's landed 59% of his significant strikes and defended 57% of incoming attempts. Most of those have been in close, but that's a statement of control in its own right.

"50K" has shown too many lapses with wrestling defense to expect him to fend off one of the division's top-five grapplers.

Betting Verdict

• My model sees this fight a bit differently than I do. Ige averages 4.42 takedown attempts per 15, so it sees success against Mitchell's 33% takedown D. I just don't think that'll be his plan at all given Mitchell's dangerous jiu-jitsu.
  • I've got Mitchell at 58.3% to win versus the 67.7% implied odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • I've got this fight at 64.2% to see the full duration versus the 66.2% odds at Sportsbook.

DFS Verdict

• Mitchell has been a curious case for FanDuel scoring historically, but he's one of the better favorites on this bizarre card with submission volume (1.7 attempts per 15 minutes) to produce an early finish.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Lightweight (155 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Without my model, I'm not sure I'd have had as clean of a perspective on my bias in this fight.

Mateusz Gamrot isn't the world's most aesthetically pleasing fighter, but he's effective. Gamrot leans heavily on his pace and cardio to overcome some lapses as an offensive striker, averaging 14.65 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Eventually, he wilted Jalin Turner on short notice in his last bout with all the wrestling and will look to do the same to Rafael Fiziev.

Fiziev is more aggressive, landing 5.06 significant strikes per minute to Gamrot's 3.03. The two land exactly 51% of their significant strikes, but Gamrot's striking defense (60%) is considerably higher than Fiziev's (48%). Even in striking exchanges in this fight, Gamrot should be far more responsible.

For all of the flair "Ataman" strikes with, he hasn't exactly put it to fight-ending use with regularity. His knockdown rate (0.40%) is barely ahead of Gamrot's (0.38%) in a much larger sample with "Gamer" having not chosen to spend much time at distance.

Fiziev is truly an enigma that I believe only stats can encapsulate. He has plenty of offensive success, but you can't ultimately call a one-dimensional striker an overwhelming favorite when he's got a -0.11 SSR. As Fiziev's moneyline climbs, I can't help but think the default handicap on this fight is that Fiziev uses his 90% takedown D to stuff Gamrot's advances and win rounds with damage.

On the contrary, Fiziev hasn't really faced someone with Gamrot's volume and pressure. This will be his first opponent averaging north of 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at the time they fought. Plus, Rafael has had previous cardio issues, losing the final round to Justin Gaethje (-15 striking differential) and Bobby Green (-23).

In Fiziev's only other five-round bout, Rafael Dos Anjos attempted just 110 significant strikes in just over 20 minutes. He didn't make him work. Gamrot's historical pace is higher, and he'll likely weaponize his pace in this particular matchup. I like the underdog, who has also faced better competition recently against Turner and Beneil Dariush.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Gamrot at 59.1% likely to win this fight. I thought that was a bit generous, but he is indeed the one with grappling upside here and the far better defensive striker against superior competition.
• It also sees this fight going the distance 71.1% of the time versus the 51.9% implied odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

DFS Verdict

• This fight is such an overwhelming favorite to go the distance in my model that I can't truly hate on either side. This isn't a card loaded with early-finish potential.
  • However, at the lower salary as my identified clear winner, Gamrot ($17) will be the preferred target.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.