North Carolina vs San Diego State Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Four

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) and the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) meet with a place in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament on the line on Tuesday at UD Arena, starting at 9:10 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Tuesday, March 18, 2025
• Game time: 9:10 p.m. ET
• TV channel: truTV
• Location: Dayton, Ohio
• Arena: UD Arena

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: North Carolina win (55.5%)

If you are planning on making a wager on North Carolina-San Diego State outing (in which North Carolina is a 5.5-point favorite and the total has been set at 142.5 points), keep reading for a few betting insights and trends for Tuesday's game.

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North Carolina vs. San Diego State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• North Carolina is 15-20-0 ATS this season.
• San Diego State has put together a 12-17-0 record against the spread this year.
• North Carolina covers the spread when it is a 5.5-point favorite or more 55% of the time. That's more often than San Diego State covers as an underdog of 5.5 or more (33.3%).
• The Tar Heels have covered the spread in a higher percentage of their home games than road games. They have covered seven times in 15 opportunities at home, and they've covered four times in 12 opportunities on the road.
• This year, the Aztecs are 6-8-0 at home against the spread (.429 winning percentage). Away, they are 3-7-0 ATS (.300).

North Carolina vs. San Diego State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• North Carolina has been victorious in 21, or 84%, of the 25 contests it has been chosen as moneyline favorites in this season.
• This season, the Tar Heels have been victorious 17 times in 19 chances when named as a favorite of at least -220 or better on the moneyline.
• San Diego State has a 3-6 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 33.3% of those games).
• When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +180 or longer, the Aztecs have a 1-2 record (winning only 33.3% of their games).
• North Carolina has an implied victory probability of 68.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Head-to-Head Comparison

• North Carolina's +204 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game) is a result of scoring 80.8 points per game (32nd in college basketball) while allowing 75 per outing (271st in college basketball).
• RJ Davis paces North Carolina, putting up 17 points per game (112th in the nation).
• San Diego State's +217 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.3 points per game) is a result of putting up 70.9 points per game (258th in college basketball) while allowing 63.6 per outing (14th in college basketball).
• Nicholas Boyd's team-leading 13.4 points per game rank him 462nd in the country.
• The Tar Heels grab 33.3 rebounds per game (100th in college basketball) while allowing 31.2 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 2.1 boards per game.
• Ven-Allen Lubin averages 5.6 rebounds per game (ranking 418th in college basketball) to lead the Tar Heels.
• The Aztecs are 184th in college basketball at 31.8 rebounds per game. That's similar to the 31.4 their opponents average.
• Magoon Gwath is 542nd in college basketball with 5.2 rebounds per game, leading the Aztecs.
• North Carolina ranks 45th in college basketball by averaging 102 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 214th in college basketball, allowing 94.6 points per 100 possessions.
• The Aztecs' 94.3 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 215th in college basketball, and the 84.6 points they allow per 100 possessions rank ninth in college basketball.

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