UFC Vegas 100 Best Bets: Magny vs. Prates

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 100 Betting Picks

Cody Stamann vs. Da'Mon Blackshear

Blackshear by Submission (+550)

Da'Mon Blackshear has already experienced both ends of the mountaintop in just the last 15 months.

In August 2023, Blackshear became the third fighter ever in UFC to submit his opponent with a twister, a rare and complicated type of submission. This summer, things didn't go as well when Montel Jackson knocked him out in 18 seconds.

Jackson is known for that type of power, so I don't hold "Da Monster" in a poor light for that outcome. Blackshear's 48% striking defense is a bit of an issue, but his opponent this weekend takes care of some of that worry. 35-year-old Cody Stamann has just a 0.26% knockdown rate and a single win by KO/TKO in 14 UFC fights.

"The Spartan" Stamann is a reliable wrestling threat, landing 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. His issues have come wrestling into elite submission attacks. He's been subbed twice with zero career submission attempts himself. I've been playing submissions against the veteran with a hypothesis that he's just not super comfortable with jiu-jitsu.

As evidenced by Blackshear's completed twister and 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, he is comfortable. I've got him modeled as 15.2% likely to submit Stamann, so I'll throw this dart.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Denise Gomes

Gomes by KO/TKO (+310)

This fight is -235 to go the distance because exactly zero women's strawweights bouts have ended via KO/TKO since the UFC changed gloves in June, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Denise Gomes have combined for just one career win via submission.

I see that as white noise in a small sample given these gloves are notably thinner and designed to produce more cuts. We're due for one soon, and Gomes has knocked out two of her five opponents with a 0.66% knockdown rate. That's fairly impressive for this low-power division.

Kowalkiewicz's time is also certainly coming. The former title challenger is now 39 years old, ceding a -41 striking differential in her last fight with Iasmin Lucindo.

Notably, Gomes' three fights that went the distance featured at least four takedowns from her opponents, keeping her from landing blows. Kowalkiewicz has just five total takedowns in 17 UFC appearances.

I've modeled Gomes as 22.7% likely to knock out the Polish fighter in the standup here. The "glove trend" is almost certainly weighing this line down.

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates

Prates to Win After Round 1 (-133)

It's hard not to be impressed with Carlos Prates' last start, but the betting market has corrected to it here and then some.

Prates posted three knockdowns in a second-round assault of Li Jingliang, who had previously not been KO'd in 17 UFC appearances. The Muay Thai-based striking sensation now has dropped all four of his UFC-affiliated opponents, but there are also a lot of unknowns about him to blindly accept an -850 moneyline -- the highest on this card.

I also don't want to heavily back 37-year-old Neil Magny, who has been dominated for 33 of the last 35 minutes he's spent in the octagon. The veteran's comeback win over an exhausted Mike Malott (5-1 UFC) gave the promotion the opportunity to make this matchup. Magny's long legs have also been historically chewed up by Muay Thai strikers like Prates.

That's why, thanks to FanDuel's new Same Game Parlay feature for UFC, I've created my own way to gently back Prates here as I navigate his small UFC sample that otherwise doesn't qualify to be modeled. Attempting to do so, I've got him at 58.5% likely to win (-140 implied), but I've also got this fight at 35.4% likely to start Round 4 compared to FanDuel's 34.0% implied odds.

Showing value on the total throughout the fight, I'll back the veteran to survive the first -- as three of Prates' four UFC-affiliated opponents have -- while still ultimately losing via knockout or decision.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.