UFC Seattle Best Bets and Predictions: Cejudo vs. Song

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song, taking place at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington on Saturday.

UFC Seattle Betting Picks

Ricky Simon vs. Javid Basharat

Simon to Win (+190)

Many might be done with Ricky Simon after two consecutive blowout losses with a combined -124 strike differential. Ugly doesn't tell the full story.

However, the size, physicality, and grappling prowess of Javid Basharat doesn't really compare to Mario Bautista or Vinicius "Lokdog" Oliveira around the fringe of the rankings. Basharat is also coming off his first loss, a -8 striking differential against Aiemann Zahabi.

Simon still lands 5.20 takedowns per 15 minutes at an efficient clip (44% land rate), which is an interesting match for Basharat's strong -- but limited -- takedown defense sample (85%).

From a strength perspective, Simon's compact frame might bulldoze through the lankier fighter from Afghanistan. There's a chance he looks like a moderate favorite if the mat returns come easily.

I've still got Basharat 57.2% likely to win this fight with almost no finishing equity, but that means Simon shows value at +190. Similar to last week's close statistical loss with Julia Avila, this is a value dart more than a true pick to win.

Andre Fili vs. Melquizael Costa

Fili to Win (-102)
Fili by KO/TKO (+500)

Melquizael Costa barely squeaks into model-eligible range with 41:56 of octagon time so far. If anything that small sample against low-level competition would help his argument.

I've still got the favorite a 'dog here.

It hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows for Melky, including a submission loss in his debut and violent (T)KO stoppage against Steve Garcia (7-2 UFC). Andre Fili (12-10 UFC) is certainly his most experienced and accomplished foe to date.

Fili's chin is giving way a bit at 34, having been dropped in each of his last three losses. Costa's 0% knockdown rate and minimal power are a great matchup for him, and Melky's 52% takedown D is, as well. "Touchy" Fili lands 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 43% clip.

On the feet, we also saw Costa quit against Garcia. It's a bad look when Fili's 0.63% knockdown rate is significant enough to matter.

I've got Fili modeled as a favorite (53.0%), yet this line has moved against him all week. I'll scoop up the value while adding a sprinkle of his knockout prop, which I've modeled at 17.1% likely.

Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (+124)

Brendan Allen has the tools to potentially survive Anthony Hernandez's onslaught for 15 minutes -- or win inside them. It's just not a super likely clip.

"Fluffy" Hernandez has finished six of his seven UFC wins with the exception coming against Josh Fremd on extremely short notice. Hernandez's tornado of grappling has produced 6.64 takedowns and 2.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and it's easy to see them coming opposite Allen's 58% takedown D.

However, Allen also has a decent 0.65% knockdown rate when Hernandez has been hurt before. He also averages 1.3 submission attempts himself with seven UFC wins via submission.

These two went 25 full minutes outside of UFC in 2018 before either had turned 25 years old. I think that's influencing this betting line when I -- and my model -- see two vicious finishers since they entered the promotion.

Especially with "All-In" Allen's upset potential pretty exclusively baked into a finish, I've got this fight ending early 94.8% of the time. I'm showing extreme value -- likely due to these two's previous result.

Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong

Cejudo to Win (+220)

Song Yadong has to prove he can win this fight before he's -310 to do so.

I'm aware former 135-pound champ Henry Cejudo is worse for wear at 38, but Cejudo's last two fights -- tight decisions with two of the last three champions -- aren't exactly poor results on his resumé. The former Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling is an outstanding mat player, and his knockdown rate (0.70%) and great striking D (60%) show comfort on the feet.

Meanwhile, Yadong's entire case for being a heavy favorite is based on potential at 27. On paper, Yadong is 1-3 inside the bantamweight rankings, and the one victory was a controversial decision over Chito Vera (15-9 UFC).

Analytically, Yadong's striking accuracy (46%) and defense (55%) are lower than Cejudo's with the grappling edge known to be in the underdog's direction.

This line is mostly about age and recent records. That's why my model forecasts just a 51.2% likelihood for Yadong to win. With split projections on a knockout (26.0%) or decision (21.6%) for Cejudo, I prefer a standard bet on Triple C's moneyline.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.