UFC Vegas 102 Best Bets and Predictions: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Betting Picks

Julia Avila vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Avila to Win (+490)

I get that Julia Avila's last fight was a horrendous look, but this betting number is disrespectful.

Avila, 36, fought Miesha Tate in a bout between two ladies at least 35 years old, ending a 15-plus-month layoff in December 2023, and she got destroyed for a -33 striking differential and third-round submission. "Washed" is a real possibility.

However, Tate's a former world champion and still ranked. Jacqueline Cavalcanti has too many questions to prove. The one-dimensional striker's latest step up in competition showed a +0 striking differential over Nora Cornolle (2-1 UFC), and she's never faced anyone averaging over a takedown attempt per 15 minutes. "Raging Panda" enters at 1.64.

Given the favorite's 0% knockdown rate, my model actually sees it more likely Avila (two UFC finishes) can stop Cavalcanti than the other way around.

I've got Avila modeled at 45.7% likely to win this fight. Maybe she's washed, but it doesn't take a large bet to produce a unit if this fight is indeed much closer on paper than public perception believes.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski

Petroski to Win (+205)
Petroski by Points (+440)

This fight could have been on last week's pay-per-view card. Middleweight's best grappler will be settled here.

Of course, Rodolfo Vieira and Andre Petroski usually don't add much in the striking department, so it'll be interesting to see what the tenor of this fight becomes. Do they decide it on the ground, or does it devolve into a striking match?

Either way, Petroski seems undervalued here. Vieira's 49% striking D at distance is concerning, and he's now 35 with just one appearance since April 2023. Petroski made the walk three times last year, and his striking success rate (SSR) is +0.31 to Vieira's -1.41.

The underdog is also the one of these two with a knockdown in their career, and Rodolfo was dropped by Cody Brundage (4-6 UFC) two fights ago.

I've got Petroski modeled as 43.1% likely to win (+132 implied), and 27.4% of the time, it's by points. Both are undervalued, but I prefer the moneyline when Vieira, due to exhaustion, has been submitted in UFC.

Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal

Zalal by Submission (+310)

I did not expect to set a model record for largest favorite this week.

Youssef Zalal did so, which is especially surprising when Zalal's recent level of competition is just 60th percentile within the model. He's not even a perfect favorite, but it speaks to the decline of 36-year-old Calvin Kattar.

A knockout threat in a previous era of UFC, the hittable Kattar has absorbed 6.75 significant strikes per minute -- most on this card. He's got a -1.99 SSR overall and surrendered eight takedowns to Aljamain Sterling -- albeit a former champ -- in his last bout. That's not good when Zalal enters having submitted three straight foes.

"The Moroccan Devil" has just a 0.58% knockdown rate, so I can't see him being the first to stop the durable "Boston Finisher" with strikes. I've got Zalal modeled as just a -310 favorite overall, but he's modeled 36.8% likely to win by a fourth straight sub. I don't mind undercutting the juice with this prop.

Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues Wins in Round 1, 2, or 3 (+125)
Rodrigues by KO/TKO (+130)

"The Killa Gorilla" has had a remarkable career, but Father Time is coming for Jared Cannonier.

At 40, Cannonier's now been knocked out or dropped in consecutive fights. Facing two top-10 contenders, UFC wants to see if he can hold Gregory Rodrigues outside of the rankings, but "Robocop" is arguably the worst matchup to face outside the top 15 with durability concerns.

Rodrigues has seen five of his seven UFC wins come via (T)KO with a healthy knockdown rate (0.88%). His forward pressure and striking accuracy (56%) melted Brad Tavares and Chidi Njokuani at distance.

Evolving to more of a point fighter, Cannonier hasn't dropped anyone since August 2021. I think he's outgunned in a firefight -- as most Robocop bouts are.

In his first five-round feature, I'm not sure if I want a piece of Robocop if this fight heads to the judges' cards, but I've got him 48.4% likely to stop the former title challenger before Round 4. Because Cannonier hasn't been subbed in UFC, it's by knockout 44.9% of the time.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.