UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bets: Adesanya vs. Imavov

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov, taking place at The Venue in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov Betting Picks

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Bueno Silva to Win (+215)

Realistically, this would be a main card fight inside the 125-pound rankings anywhere on the planet except Riyadh. Tune in early here.

Jasmine Jasudavicius continues to deliver with wins in five of her last six, but Mayra Bueno Silva, a former title challenger at bantamweight, is only her third ranked foe faced. She's 0-2 in the other fights.

On that principle alone, I'd back MBS at +215 here, but the matchup should also work for her, too. Jas is a grappling specialist, but Bueno Silva's submission offense (1.5 attempts per 15 minutes) has also translated to defense with no professional losses via that method.

At distance, I actually favor Bueno Silva here. Her striking accuracy (59%) and defense (52%) are better, and as underwhelming as her -26 striking differential was in the title bout against 135-pound champ Rocky Pennington, it was still better than Jasudavicius' against Tracy Cortez (-33).

I've got Jas modeled at -130 based on recent form at 125 pounds, but dropping weight classes, I'd anecdotally favor Bueno Silva as a bookmaker in this one.

Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadzovic

McKinney Wins in Round 1 (-135)

Welp, this one was pretty simple.

Terrance McKinney has never been to the scorecards in 22 pro fights. A rapid pace and endurance issues will do that to you. It can be hard to trust him to win, but if he does, it's quickly. McKinney's average fight time is under three minutes.

On Saturday, it's easy to trust him to win, too. 38-year-old Damir Hadzovic has lost five of his nine UFC appearances and has surrendered 17 takedowns in his last four fights. McKinney (3.45 takedowns per 15 minutes) is really great at getting them in addition to his elite power (2.17% knockdown rate).

"T-Wrecks" doesn't have much punching power (0.62% knockdown rate) to fear from Hadzovic. This seems to be a get-right spot for him as the final bout on the underdog's contract.

I've modeled McKinney as 70.7% implied to win, but 65.0% of the time, it comes via finish.

Whether by ground-and-pound or another submission loss for Hadzovic, I'm not expecting the superior athlete to take long to get it done. The value in this line comes from Hadzovic's five decisions in his last seven scraps against less-aggressive lightweights.

Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis

Ziam to Win (+120)
Ziam by Points (+210)

You are what your record is in UFC. Long layoffs and injuries have forced Mike Davis' to be not very impressive.

Davis' four wins have come over foes with just a 6-5-1 record against all others. I'm admittedly a fan and previous backer, but he's needed 2.77 takedowns per 15 minutes to survive a -0.41 striking success rate (SSR). Those are hard to come by against Fares Ziam.

Ziam's early-career issues with wrestling D are gone. He's defended 18 of the last 27 takedowns (66.7%) he's faced since a 2022 loss via sub to Terrance McKinney. I faded Ziam with a once-ranked Matt Frevola in his last fight because of this reputation and paid dearly for it. The Frenchman's career-best performance ended in a highlight knockout.

Because of Davis' poor competition level, I had more confidence in Frevola's wrestling than that of "Beast Boy".

I've modeled this fight at a near pick 'em with Davis winning 50.4% of the time. That leaves the betting value squarely on "Smile Killer", who I'd also set closer to +182 (35.4% implied) to win via decision. Davis has never been knocked out as a pro.

Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov to Win (+130)

Do you want to be with the "pros" or "joes" in Saturday's main event? Early in 2025, this might be the most split those groups are all year.

Fans love enigmatic former middleweight champ Israel Adesanya, who admittedly hung on longer against Dricus Du Plessis than I expected, but the 35-year-old just doesn't have a ton working in his direction against top-shelf 185-pounders at this stage. Adesanya's declining knockdown rate (1.04%) and striking efficiency (+0.79 SSR) come with no grappling upside.

Meanwhile, Nassourdine Imavov's superior +1.31 SSR has now held through five ranked opponents -- many better now than we thought when he fought them. Plus, at 2.44 takedowns attempts per 15, he's shown some ability to take the path of least resistance against "Stylebender".

Either way, the improving 28-year-old should be favored here. I've got him at 56.0% likely to win (-125 implied) with enough equity that it comes by (T)KO or submission (27.1%) to avoid betting his decision prop or this fight to go its full distance at -174. The moneyline is the best choice.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.