UFC 308 DFS Picks: Topuria vs. Holloway

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway, taking place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.

UFC 308 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Kennedy Nzechukwu ($22)

The former light heavyweight wasn't thrilled with a 6-5 stint at 205 pounds, so he's dropping the weight cut and moving to heavyweight where his 6'5" frame will fit right in. Nzechuwku's striking success rate (+0.23 SSR) is fine and should improve with added speed at heavyweight, and the small hints of grappling -- including a submission win -- should be enough to dispatch an undersized Chris Barnett. The UFC odds at FanDuel have him at - to win inside the distance on Saturday.

Myktybek Orolbai ($20)

Orolbai has quickly become 155 pounds' boogeyman on the back of 7.44 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy and two easy performances against multi-time winners. Mateusz Rebecki isn't a bad prospect on the other side here, but Rebecki's 33% takedown defense became an issue -- along with his endurance -- in a vicious knockout loss to 39-year-old Diego Ferreira back in May. A finish will be hard to find, but Orolbai should pile up takedown points.

Geoff Neal ($19)

"Handz of Steel" weighed 200.8 pounds on fight day in his last bout, so this fight with Rafael Dos Anjos -- a career 155-pounder -- is a significant mismatch in size. RDA's 60% striking defense is historically hard to break, but he's now 40 years old. My model has Neal's knockout chances at 25.5%, and I'd presume he won't be popular with this fight -132 to go the distance due to Dos Anjos' own lack of finishing danger.

Khamzat Chimaev ($19)

One of UFC's most notoriously difficult storms to weather, "Borz" has a first- or second-round finish in five of seven consecutive wins to start his UFC career. Robert Whittaker's 82% takedown D seems like a decent bet to stop him -- until you realize Chimaev mowed through Kamaru Usman's 89% mark in his last fight. At +100 to win this fight in the first three rounds, I don't know how you ignore him in DFS.

Lerone Murphy ($18)

Murphy exploded for 176 points in his last fight against durable veteran Edson Barboza, and he'll meet another in Dan "50K" Ige, who has yet to be finished as a pro. This fight for "The Miracle" is only three rounds, so I'd avoid him at the MVP multiplier, but he's still a darn solid flex play that seems to be entering his prime now at 31. I've modeled his finish chances higher than you might think (17.9%), too.

Value Plays to Target

Max Holloway ($15)

In one of the toughest championship fights to diagnose all year, I lean a fight heading toward the full distance given no man has knocked "Blessed" Holloway in 29 starts. These two fighters also both have elite takedown defenses north of 84% to negate grappling or stalling. This bout projects to be a 25-minute striking war featuring the UFC's all-time leader for significant strikes. Holloway's salary is especially desirable given his rate of 7.17 significant strikes landed per minute.

Ibo Aslan ($15)

Rarely is a 2-0 UFC fighter with a pair of knockouts and a +2.30 SSR an underdog in his next fight, but Aslan's style of slugging it out will always be volatile. Training out of Francis Ngannou and Sean Strickland's Xtreme Couture gym, I'm a fan of the efficient, powerful, and -- most of all -- game Turkish fighter. I'll back his experience over newcomer Rafael Cerqueira in a violent coin flip.

Brunno Ferreira ($14)

As mentioned in my UFC 308 best bets, I might be way too high on modeling Ferreira's knockout chances (68.8%) on Saturday, but he's won four of his first five UFC starts by first-round (T)KO, and his 4.76% knockdown rate is massive. It's not like the favorite in his bout, Abus Magomedov (-0.85 SSR), has been perfect, either. No one else in the value tier has Ferreira's obvious, achievable upside, but he's an underdog because of what might come if that early KO isn't found.

Armen Petrosyan ($13)

Petrosyan already pulled one upset as a +150 underdog against a kick-heavy striker (Christian Leroy Duncan) in his UFC career, so I'm not sure why he wouldn't be good for another. Petrosyan's striking defense (56%) creates a high floor, and this fight with Shara Magomedov is -220 to go the distance. I wouldn't discount the Armenian's own knockout upside, per Shara Bullet's poor 41% striking D to this stage.

Victor Hugo ($8)

A winner of 14 straight fights since an injury caused a TKO loss in 2014, the Brazilian "Striker" with a poetic namesake is a live 'dog in an extremely high-level fight with Farid Basharat (4-0 UFC). Hugo defended 12 of 13 takedowns in his debut, and if that holds, he'll have a fine chance at distance to win a tight decision. At the very least, projected length in this fight is a reason to pivot away from the -650 favorite in DFS.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.