UFC 308 Best Bets: Topuria vs. Holloway

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.

UFC 308 Betting Picks

Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira

Ferreira by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 (+340)

My criteria for a fighter to be eligible to model is 45 completed octagon minutes or 5 trips to the cage. The reason why for the secondary criteria? Guys like Brunno Ferreira might not hit 45 for their career.

Ferreira has needed just under 18 minutes to settle five UFC-affiliated fights, amassing a 4-1 record via first-round knockout wins and losses. He's a slugger, and with a gigantic 4.76% knockdown rate, he's going to win a ton of slugfests.

Abus Magomedov is his most skilled and challenging opponent to date, but I'm not sure he's exactly immune to "The Hulk" in this spot. Magomedov's 55% striking defense is just good rather than great, and his -0.85 striking success rate (SSR) is even worse.

I've got this fight at -345 to not go the distance compared to -370 on FanDuel. Both Ferreira and Magomedov have been dust inside of two rounds in their losses.

I also wouldn't lay chalk opposite Ferreira's power, and my model doesn't see submission or decision equity from the Brazilian at this stage. Though likely influenced than a smaller-than-ideal sample size, I've got a Ferreira knockout at 68.8% likely in this bout, and I'm willing to ride a small bet on this plus-money prop to see if its hypothesis is correct.

Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan

Petrosyan to Win (+136)

The UFC clearly likes Shara Magomedov's style and personality, but there is inevitably a ceiling with "Bullet".

Magomedov is a unique, creative striker that loves kicks, but his grappling doesn't make the grade. He allowed career-high marks in takedowns to Bruno Silva and Michal Oleksiejczuk, and his 71% takedown D -- on paper -- was juiced by a 7-for-7 effort on defense against Antonio Trocoli (0-1 UFC) as a short-notice opponent.

I can't help but back Armen Petrosyan in this spot when the 33-year-old shut down Christian Leroy Duncan's kick-heavy game when CLD was the hot prospect on the block. Petrosyan posted a takedown and 3:21 in control time in that bout, but mostly, he crowded Duncan at distance just as he can Shara.

Magomedov's UFC competition has a 11-13-1 combined record themselves so far. Petrosyan (4-2 UFC) is his most accomplished foe to date with his only two losses to grapplers. My model has the Armenian underdog as 42.3% likely to win this bout, and I'd anecdotally line this one closer to a pick 'em.

Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Chimaev by Submission (+270)
Chimaev by Submission in Round 1 (+750)

There isn't a more ominous early storm in mixed martial arts than Khamzat Chimaev.

"Borz" has been a dark horse at 170 or 185 pounds since his famous two-fight debut within 10 days of each other, but injuries, out-of-cage antics, and illnesses have kept him sidelined too often in the past few years.

Nonetheless, Chimaev still sports otherworldly offensive metrics through three straight ranked tests, posting 85.8 significant strikes, 3.99 takedowns, and 2.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He's found a first- or second-round finish in five of his seven consecutive wins to start his UFC career.

Robert Whittaker is a top-five test with -- one would presume -- decent tools to fend him off. His 82% takedown defense is a nice start until you realize Chimaev just blew through Kamaru Usman's legendary 89% mark. "The Reaper" is an efficient striker (+1.14 SSR), but with just one knockout win since the start of 2017 opposite Chimaev's granite chin, I'm not even sure about a puncher's chance.

Yet, we've seen Chimaev tire late in fights. In this five-round co-main event, weathering the storm would seem to be Whittaker's path. My model expects Chimaev to submit him 34.3% of the time (+192 implied), and that's come in the first two rounds historically. Personally, I believe Chimaev gets Whittaker out of the cage quickly, but if he doesn't, I'd rather make small plays at these props rather than the favorite's -250 moneyline.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway

Holloway by Points (+470)

This is about as good of a fight as the UFC can pull together in 2024. "Fight Island" is in for a treat.

At 15-0, Ilia Topuria seems positioned to be the next long-reigning UFC champion at featherweight after knocking out the most recent, Alexander Volkanovski, in February. However, Max Holloway's insane, last-second win for the "BMF" belt in March earned him the right to call for any fight he wanted, and he chose this one -- a last shot at the title that Holloway also held for nearly three years.

Stylistically, Holloway is a pain for anyone to rout in convincing fashion. His legendary durability hasn't ceded a single knockdown in 2,223 significant strikes absorbed. That's even come in a few fights at 155 pounds. Topuria's power is excellent (1.62% knockdown rate), but it's not "legendary".

"Blessed" also has an 84% takedown defense, which is actually lower than Topuria's (92%). Either way, it'll be hard for this fight to not be a 25-minute war on the feet as most of Max's bouts are. With that the case, the all-time record holder for significant strikes landed in a fight (445) and career (3,378) is a brutal guy to outpoint. Volkanovski did thrice, but no one else really has.

We'll find out truly how special Topuria is on Saturday. My model has Topuria by KO/TKO (+210) at 35.6% likely (or +180 implied), but if he's unable to find that finish, I've got Holloway winning a decision 29.6% of the time in this bout. Having seen no man knock Holloway out in 29 appearances, my primary bet is on the latter.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.